Lifting Covid restrictions by March 'a disaster', says Sage scientist

[PuzzledObserver]

That’s the headline from an item on the BBC’s rolling news page. Here’s the text:

A leading epidemiologist says it would be "a disaster" to lift lockdown measures in the UK at the end of February, when the government hopes to have the most vulnerable groups vaccinated.

Professor John Edmunds - who works on the Government's coronavirus response as part of the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) - warns vaccines are not 100% protective, and cautions only a small fraction of the population will have been vaccinated by then.

"If you look at the hospitalisations at the moment, about half of them are in the under-70s, and they are not in the first wave to be vaccinated," he tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"If we relaxed our restrictions we would immediately put the NHS under enormous pressure again."

But nobody thinks they will be "lifted". They will be eased gradually (hopefully somewhat more gradually than last summer!)

It’s never fucking ending 😓

I don’t think lifting restrictions at the end of Feb (which is what he actually said, not March) was ever on the table. Johnson always talked about a gradual lifting and never actually said that would even start in February.

It’s a non-story.

I don't think they will lift at the end of February? I was under the impression it will be possibly the end of March.

Looks like a straw man argument to me. A lot of people very eager to get their mugs on the news these days.

It’s difficult to keep track of, that’s for sure. Am I remembering correctly that the current lockdown rules will be ‘reviewed’ in the middle of February, but the law allows them to remain to the end of March without a new vote in parliament?

I certainly don’t expect everything to be lifted in February, but I did think schools might go back after half term. At least primaries.

When lockdown is lifted it won’t be free for all, it will be tiers.

Let's face it the country cannot go on like this forever. The economy has already come to a grinding halt

God, eyeroll is my response.

Edmunds need to think about the impact of his words on a pretty desperate population.

Daft. Even the idiot in charge hasn’t mentioned immediately lifting restrictions at the end of February. It may, or may not, be appropriate to begin the rolling back of some restrictions at that point. Starting with schools I hope. I do not want another situation where schools are closed yet Jon essential retail, pubs, and theme parks are open before schools.

Does he say what he calls a small fraction of the population, by the end of Feb we're targetting to have covered quite a good number.

We can then hopefully address the issue of where infection is occurring and possibly direct some of the vaccinations in a more specific way

A large part of the younger vulnerable should also be vaccinated then.

It should be determined by hospital admissions. But we can't have schools closed to most pupils a day longer than needed.

There’s a balance to be struck though isn’t there. I support and comply with the restrictions, but I‘d be interested to know how many of the experts are likely to lose their house, job or business in the next six months. As long as the NHS has capacity and can cope, the restrictions should be eased / lifted.

So half the half hospitalisations are over 70

That should mean that the vaccination program will massively alleviate pressure on the NHS, enabling them to focus on looking after the younger people just in time for spring to come along when the virus will become less of a problem anyway

I’m surprised SAGE haven’t yet predicted that call human life will become extinct by the end of the year unless we lock ourselves up in solitary confinement 24/7

I'd rather push through, stay locked down until most of us get vaccination.
My only worry is, can they continue to do 1st vaccination at the tail (all adults) and simultaneously re do the head again (over 80s) by autumn /winter.

Patrick valance yesterday repeated, indoor, indoor, indoor as the risk point he said wear masks, stay distanced, open windows and absolutely stressed it's indoor where the problems are... I don't see how they can possibly send full school back.

If we stay locked down until most of the population is vaccinated, there will be nothing to come back to as all the restaurants, theatres and hotels will have gone out of business and our DCs will have lost more than a year of at school education.

I don't think they can say yet when is the right time to lift restrictions as it can be done gradually based on infection rates and hospitalisations and deaths at that point. I'm hoping schools will go back after Easter and things open gradually. Issue last time seemed to be cautious gradual easing until government ( include Scottish government) got tired of it and opened up just about everything at once. Schools before indoor pubs this time round please.

Oh and much as it pains me to say it, international travel absolutely last on the list.

@LickEmbysmiling

I'd rather push through, stay locked down until most of us get vaccination. My only worry is, can they continue to do 1st vaccination at the tail (all adults) and simultaneously re do the head again (over 80s) by autumn /winter.

Nope not going to happen & its ridiculous if it does.

I support lockdown for now as its needed, but there is absolutely no way there will be buy in for it continuing when cases are low.

Travel corridors are now suspended. Stop international travel, get cases low in the UK, then we start getting back to normal a bit. We can still have some restrictions over social gatherings, but it would be criminal and economic suicide to lock down a healthy population who will largely not suffer serious ill health from the virus, and most of the vulnerable are protected.

@LickEmbysmiling

I'd rather push through, stay locked down until most of us get vaccination. My only worry is, can they continue to do 1st vaccination at the tail (all adults) and simultaneously re do the head again (over 80s) by autumn /winter.

That’s fine if you can afford it. I’m not sure many people can, either financially or in terms of their wellbeing.

Oh well we’ll just stay in lockdown forever more then shall we? 🙄

And how many of the under 70s in hospital at the moment have underlying conditions so would be included in the first wave of vaccinations?

1.residents in a care home for older adults and their carers
2.all those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
3.all those 75 years of age and over
4.all those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals

"If you look at the hospitalisations at the moment, about half of them are in the under-70s, and they are not in the first wave to be vaccinated," he tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

The aim is to get the over 50s and younger vulnerable vaccinated by the end of March. Therefore by Easter we should be able to significantly ease restrictions, even if it's just into the lower tiers to begin with.

My only worry is, can they continue to do 1st vaccination at the tail (all adults) and simultaneously re do the head again (over 80s) by autumn /winter.

With a capacity of 2 million jabs per week, which we have now reached - yes we can. In fact, capacity should reach half a million per day by next week, so I don’t think you need to worry on that score.

I also don’t think we will need annual boosters, as I believe immunity will be long-lasting. But my husband calls me Pollyanna.

Is there a link to this article please?
It needs to be clear whether this expert is talking about extending the lockdown further than Feb, or talking of returning to restrictions like the tier system.
And what is happening with schools?
Obviously, after the lockdown we should still have tier 4 or maybe 3 if we are low enough.
I can cope with the idea of lockdown till March. But not sure further....
And schools, that is my main worry.

He's right. If all over 70s are due to be vaccinated mid Feb, end of Feb means many still won't have immunity as vaccines take up to 3 weeks for that to happen. Also 50 - 70s won't have been vaccinated or the people who are very venerable. So it makes sense to wait for those people to be vaccinated.