Lifting Covid restrictions by March 'a disaster', says Sage scientist

[PuzzledObserver]

That’s the headline from an item on the BBC’s rolling news page. Here’s the text:

A leading epidemiologist says it would be "a disaster" to lift lockdown measures in the UK at the end of February, when the government hopes to have the most vulnerable groups vaccinated.

Professor John Edmunds - who works on the Government's coronavirus response as part of the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) - warns vaccines are not 100% protective, and cautions only a small fraction of the population will have been vaccinated by then.

"If you look at the hospitalisations at the moment, about half of them are in the under-70s, and they are not in the first wave to be vaccinated," he tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"If we relaxed our restrictions we would immediately put the NHS under enormous pressure again."

So it would be disasterous to do something that's not been suggested we do.

Righto...

Quite frankly I am fed up of these experts and their predictions

So it would be disasterous to do something that's not been suggested we do.

Righto...

The professor was asked the question by a reporter, I heard the interview this morning on R4. So people should understand the question was asked of him, he didn't randomly just come out with it.

Half the hospitalisations in over 70s.

But without restrictions, our case numbers (and therefore hospitalisations) double in 1-2 weeks.

So vaccinate everyone over 70, lift restrictions.... and a fortnight later our hospitalisations would be roughly the same. Doesn't really work.

At the rate we are going if you look at the ‘cases’ the immunity levels should surely be pretty high if it’s immunity by vaccination or infection. There was talk yesterday that London’s case may be dropping because of the previous high infection rate

The epidemic of poverty and mental health and delayed treatment will become so high they will need to start releasing things to balance things IMO

phase 1 includes every one over 50 and all those over 16 with under lying conditions so whats he on about?

SAGE are such doom and gloom. They would happily have us in lockdown until 2035 and then say it was risky.

phase 2 is the rest of the population - under 50 with no underlying issues

When you are just thinking about covid that's fine thinking like that.

Unfortunately we need to consider the health, mental health, economy ect.

Also do we need to keep hearing from all the sage scientists, with the various committeess there is hundreds of them.

Hearing more opposing views to sage(I'm talking other scientists) in mainstream media would be refreshing.

I'm thinking as easter is slightly early this year HMGov will be looking at that date and working back from it, thinking where they want to be by Easter if that makes sense. I'm also wondering how they are going to handle Mothers day ...

Although the government are very pleased that they have ‘vaccinated’ 3.5 million people, only 400,000 have actually had both jabs, so within the next couple of months, they will have to give all those people the second one, as well as be vaccinating other groups.

They need to be very careful how they open things up as well. Just saying-‘all schools back at capacity with no social distancing, no isolation of contacts of positive cases and no masks allowed in classrooms’, means that we’ll just be back in this situation again in another 6 weeks.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55687463?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6002b17854a69202e80dca84%26Lifting%20Covid%20restrictions%20by%20March%20%27a%20disaster%27%2C%20says%20Sage%20scientist%262021-01-16T09%3A41%3A58.967Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:bb5df134-7fdd-477f-b07a-a887e0a0324f&pinned_post_asset_id=6002b17854a69202e80dca84&pinned_post_type=share

It was coverage on the BBC news site of a segment on the Radio 3 Today programme this morning. I expect you could get it on BBC Sounds

Sorry, that was a response to @MushMonster’s request for a link.

I don’t think they’ll go to a free for all lifting in feb/March.

Maybe like tier 3 initially. Then tier 2.

I agree with Professor Edmunds. Though this in my opinion might mean that some schools could return at some point in March, which is what I think might happen.

Hopefully things will start lifting the middle of February and everything be open by the end of March. Things need to get back to normal.

Walk back slowly Whitty said, is anyone surprised that things won't be completely normal in 8 weeks time?

Don't know why I bolded Whitty there.

Whitty has said repeatedly, that it won't all suddenly be back to normal. Even yesterday he said it will be small steps backwards, then pause, look at the data, and another step backwards.
Johnson said review mid February (remember, he said review last March - "we'll review in three weeks" - but people said "Oh, god, he's extended it after saying only three weeks - but he never said that in the first place).
There's no way schools will return after half term.

Cautious, gradual return after Easter, IF, the vaccination programme goes to plan, IF there are no new variants, IF the NHS can cope. Three big IFs. And that's being optimistic.
Look at the end of August - we ate out to help out, people went to the beach...all fine. Then schools went back, and cases steadily increased.
We had a half hearted November lockdown, but schools stayed open, not a lot of impact, although a slight dip. Then four weeks ago, schools close and now, despite new variant, cases are significantly dropping. However, they need to drop a lot, lot more before we're out of the woods. Then, they will think about re-opening schools.

If the 4 most vulnerable categories are vaccinated by 15th February, which is the target, we will do very well. But those people still need two or three weeks before they are deemed to have immunity. And that is before they have the second jab, up to 12 weeks later.

Easter, if we're lucky.
Probably May Bank holiday week before we notice any loosening of restrictions.

@bumbleymummy

And how many of the under 70s in hospital at the moment have underlying conditions so would be included in the first wave of vaccinations?

1.residents in a care home for older adults and their carers
2.all those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
3.all those 75 years of age and over
4.all those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals

Not my type 1 diabetic DH

Surely when it comes to lifting and easing the lockdown, it will be done gradually, but even then, it will sky rocket again, unless a large proportion of people are vaccinated and cases really start dropping, not just getting lower, that's when we are critical for it going back up. Lockdown I think will be past March, or there will be stop start lockdown. It's okay to have your positive thoughts, but realistically my thoughts are, we are a long way off being okay.