Your thoughts on when life will be normal-ish

[charcb]

I realise this is purely speculative but what are people's thoughts on when we will be back to a semi-normal reality? Knowing what you know on vaccinations, when, according to you, can we expect the most simple of things to be back up and running again? I am referring to the simplest of things such as getting people back to their offices/places of work, having shops/gyms/entertainment venues permanently open, and the like?

I know we are a long way away from normal as we know it and that it may take several years to go back to it so I am not talking to getting back to total normality - ie no masks, no social distance, no restrictions.

@inquietant

Johnson is a compulsive liar. However it does seem likely to me that restrictions will be much looser by Easter (April 4). Vaccinations are now happening fast and so the death rate from covid is expected to be a small fraction by then.

[quote notevenat20]@inquietant

Johnson is a compulsive liar. However it does seem likely to me that restrictions will be much looser by Easter (April 4). Vaccinations are now happening fast and so the death rate from covid is expected to be a small fraction by then.[/quote]
I guess time will tell. I have no tarot-reading abilities but I listen to scientists and they pull this face about Easter.

If we do relax restrictions, it'll be against scientific advice. Not putting it past both our PM and the Great British dimwits to call for it anyway.

5-10 years from the first case which was likely around Nov 2019. So Nov 2024 (earliest) might be first Autumn/winter with such low restrictions, it feels like no restrictions.

Has anyone actually identified/said what the revaccination schedulemight have to be?

@inquietanr

I am short on tarot cards too. But if we keep on vaccinating at 2+ million a day, everyone with a high chance of dying from covid will have been vaccinated by March. If this cuts deaths by 90% then covid becomes like the flu more or less.

@inquietant apologies for misspelling.

[quote notevenat20]@inquietanr

I am short on tarot cards too. But if we keep on vaccinating at 2+ million a day, everyone with a high chance of dying from covid will have been vaccinated by March. If this cuts deaths by 90% then covid becomes like the flu more or less.[/quote]
This is Chris Whitty's face on reading your post --->

But also most summers from now will feel super normal so plan your parties, meetups, weddings for then. I'm thinking of doing a few Christmas in July parties.

[quote notevenat20]@inquietant apologies for misspelling.[/quote]
S'no prob

I think the spring and summer will see some let up on the restrictions and we'll be able to socialise more but I think it's a bit too optimistic to think that this will carry on into winter. I'm mentally preparing for a half decent summer - seeing friends etc then being at home more in the winter. I want to believe the vaccinations will roll out quickly but I'm definitely near the bottom of the list so don't want to get too excited yet!

I would imagine restrictions like keeping hand sanitising stations in public and work places will stay, possibly masks in shops till we can see if the vaccines help the next winter, they might ease the things like mixing bans and open pubs and everything back up over summer and see what happens to hospital admissions and severity of cases etc. I think schools will open back up by Easter, maybe the younger years after Feb half term if schools can staff it. Over summer alot of socialising is done outside anyway so it will feel a bit more normal anyway but I'm not sure about things like holidays and leisure centres etc. All being back to normal, but perhaps from April these things will open up again

I'm feeling really uneasy about the Brazilian varient. Too many headlines saying the vaccine might not work on it. Hopeing its just scaremongering.

Chris witty in yesterday's Covid update predicted a "substantially better spring" so it's not all doom and gloom. The vaccination programme is accelerating and not looking bad - yesterday the Scottish gov published their vaccination plan and things were looking promising.

Of course things won't be back to normal, but there's light at the end of the tunnel. If things are substantially better by spring to me that means a decent summer. And a decent summer means time for us to get on with vaccinations when the risk is low.

I do expect a new wave by autumn winter 2021 again but let's hope things are under control past that.

@charcb but why though if the majority have had their vaccine by then.....? What's the point in the vaccine otherwise.

@LemonDrizzles 5-10 years of season restrictions.... 🙄

@charcb sorry I mean another wave in a/w

After listening to Witty yesterday at the press conference he distanced himself from claim things will be looking more normal by Easter and said he believed he was misquoted by Boris. He then said restrictions would be less than they are now in the spring which technically means the period up to 31st May but by no means back to normal.

Personally I believe the majority of the country will move to tier 4,with a few places tier 3, by mid Feb/end Feb as government can say national lockdown has ended. By end of April/beginning of May most move to tier 3,a few to tier 2 or maybe even 1. By July whole country at least tier 2. Summer holidays abroad present whole new problems, especially if other countries are not as far into their vaccination program as we are. Definitely more disruption there.

Looking ahead to next autumn/winter a reversal of the tier loosening but hopefully not as severe as this year. Yes hopefully a lot of the population would have been vaccinated but covid will still be bubbling and ready for resurgence at a given opportunity. Remember there are many many more young people in hospital with covid compared to last time. Even if the death rate may be lower the NHS could be overwhelmed with younger patients needing longer periods in hospital to recover (as they don’t die unlike the elderly) and the risk of long covid.

Finally, a personal concern of mine is that if the most vulnerable in society are protected by the vaccine it’s the nature of a virus to find a new vulnerable group, what if that new vulnerable group is children? That is surely why society can not return completely to pre-covid times because it would allow the virus more of an opportunity to develop and attack a new unprotected group.

I am short on tarot cards too. But if we keep on vaccinating at 2+ million a day, everyone with a high chance of dying from covid will have been vaccinated by March. If this cuts deaths by 90% then covid becomes like the flu more or less.

We're not vaccinating 2m people a day though, or even 2m a week yet!
I'm impressed how quickly the vaccine programme has started and think it's one of the few things the gov have acted quickly and proactively on, but we're a long way from vaccinating 2m people/day.

Please can someone explain to me why they think the vaccine won't make a difference and this year will be like last.

@CKBJ Chris Whitty said we 'might' need 'some' restrictions in winter. Very different from what you are predicting.

Your fear around children becoming the new vulnerable group is driven by pessimism and anxiety. Your whole post is really, I do hope you are OK.

Finally, a personal concern of mine is that if the most vulnerable in society are protected by the vaccine it’s the nature of a virus to find a new vulnerable group, what if that new vulnerable group is children? That is surely why society can not return completely to pre-covid times because it would allow the virus more of an opportunity to develop and attack a new unprotected group

With all the new variants emerging I am hoping this is something that is being taken into account. I’d rather restrictions remain than allow the virus to find more hosts in new ways.

Namechangewed - dont be patronising, its unkind

Icecream i believe this is why they are becoming more jittery about it

@CKBJ,

Viruses evolve to be more efficient at transmission. Generally, but not always, this makes them LESS harmful but more infectious.

Remember, several Corona viruses are like the common cold. It is far more likely that this virus will go the same way, rather than becoming more harmful.

You could think of it this way. By the summer:

Natural r number of new strain: 3
Vaccinations by then reduce this by 50%: 1.5
Herd immunity 20% of population: 1.2

So, we might still need measures in place to reduce this by 20% or so to keep the virus suppressed.

So, some measures, but nothing too extreme.

Only read the last few posts so far but this is a depressing read. 5-10 years before we get back to normal?
Also By end of April/beginning of May most move to tier 3,a few to tier 2 or maybe even 1. By July whole country at least tier 2.
Unless I am misremembering, all tiers require social distancing from anyone not in my household or support bubble. So I still wouldn't be able to hug my family and friends, it would be difficult to eat out with friends unless we can book a big table, and from experience last summer visiting friends in their home while social distancing feels anything but normal - can't sit next to them on the sofa, can't cook with them, can't sit at the dining table with them, can't share a car with them so have to hire a car if we want to go further than walking distance from their home. Also couldnt go on days out or holidays (in the UK or abroad) or to any events with friends. So not at all normal and pretty shit to have a second summer of that.

@namechangewed thank you for your (insincere) concern, to reassure you I’m very much well mentally and otherwise! This thread is for “your thoughts” so as such where are yours?! I’ve scrolled through the posts and can’t seem to find yours.

My point concerning the virus changing and affecting a different vulnerable group is just that a concern,a question. This virus wasn’t putting many, many younger people in hospital back in March/April but it is now. We were repeatedly told it was a mild illness for the majority. Have you noticed this line is not used as often as it was-yes I know it is still a mild illness for the majority but the slight change in tone I believe is noticeable. How come? Is that due to the new variant?Whether people think it’s a valid concern or not, I do.