Will schools be back to normal by September 2021??

[muminthesummer]

Got DC's hopefully starting GCSES and A'Levels next September. It's been so stressful worrying about my eldest DC who's currently doing GCSES I'm just clinging onto the hope that they can at least get back to normal by next academic year.

I doubt it. I think we're in for a very similar year as 2020. Restrictions up until June/July, easing off for the summer months, back into restrictions come September/October.

@peboh OMG why do you think that?

I think this term is likely to be predominantly online - which means considerably greater inequality than normal. Last term also saw outages falling unequally - some pupils having no interruption, others having repeated burst bubbles and requirements to SI.

If disruption carries in during the summer terms well, the public exams in 2022 will need attention - perhaps the mitigations put in place for 2021 before exams cancelled? And tell schools good and early so they can make best use of remaining time.

I think a normal return in September is likely. But Whitty et al have said some restrictions may need to be in place, but that doesn't sound like school closures (a last resort). But if there still needs to be SI around positive cases, then yes some disruption is quite possible. But if transmission rates are lower, that may well be far less than the previous year. Assuming no major new variants

Matt Hancock said yesterday that the vaccine will be available to all over 18s by autumn. Obviously DC at school could still get covid and pass it to others so might need to isolate if they test positive. But generally I think things in school will be much better by September because staff and families won't be at risk and most DC have no/ mild symptoms. It still won't be like pre- covid, but much better than now.

Yes.

Immunity is still looking ok 8 months on I think (we cant say longer as it hasnt been longer) so with most of the over 18s been vaccinated (and I think trials are being done on 16+) with the fact a lot of school children have had it and arent seen as being a risk it should be ok

Nobody knows-not even the scientists!

Bloody hope so my dd starts comp in sept

I think so. I think it will be pretty much back to normal by April/May.

If the aim is to get the vulnerable vaccinated in the spring and almost no under 40s die from Covid I really don't see why people think we would continue to have restrictions in September.

Really truly hope so. Hopefully by then a large proportion of the population will have been vaccinated, summer months will have lowered transmission and treatments will be better due to research.

God, I hope so.

No, i can’t see everything being back to normal by September. They don’t plan to vaccinate children so it will still be around in huge numbers.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss

No, i can’t see everything being back to normal by September. They don’t plan to vaccinate children so it will still be around in huge numbers.

But it's only a threat if it's hospitalising and killing people. Otherwise that's like saying it's best keep all the schools shut because 30 kids have a cold.

yes. elderly and vunerable will be vaccinated. hospitalizations and deaths therefore down. NHS not overrun.

No i think sep 2023 is more realistic

I think so, yes. Assuming the vaccine rollout goes as planned.

Yes. It doesn't matter if people are still getting it, what matters are the hospital rates. The elderly and vulnerable will be vaccinated by then, so hospital numbers should greatly reduce.

No way

Of course. We have a vaccine now. My kids had full schooling last year without a vaccine from Sept/Dec. With a vaccine why on earth the wouldn’t they be back?

The policy is to stop the NHS being overwhelmed not prevent all spread. We can’t justify these restrictions once people aren’t dying and the hospitals can’t cope.

@Delatron

Of course. We have a vaccine now. My kids had full schooling last year without a vaccine from Sept/Dec. With a vaccine why on earth the wouldn’t they be back?

The policy is to stop the NHS being overwhelmed not prevent all spread. We can’t justify these restrictions once people aren’t dying and the hospitals can’t cope.

Agree with this. Once we have widespread immunity, we can all stop isolating because it'll be no more prevalent than any other virus, and hospitals will comfortably cope with the cases they get.

I sincerely hope we are back to normal by September. I feel so sad for the Year 7s at my school. They've not been able to do any of the things that are exciting about secondary school; the science labs, food tech, proper art, practical music etc. Plus because all the teachers are moving round the classrooms, they're simply not as well kept and vibrant as they normally would be.

I miss welcoming my students into my classroom.

Early September, yes.

The question is what happens if and when schools and colleges going back causes another raft of cases through the Autumn.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss

No, i can’t see everything being back to normal by September. They don’t plan to vaccinate children so it will still be around in huge numbers.

It’s not about the severity of the virus in children! It’s about how it’s transmitted by children to older more vulnerable people. Once they have been vaccinated (I’m hopeful by May) then there will be absolutely no reason to keep children out of schools.

Unlikely. I think Easter 2022.

I said waaaaaay back in March the following:

They’ll lock down till the Summer as Brits won’t tolerate not being out in our short summer months. Cases will spike. They’ll lock down again late Autumn and the ‘release’ again over Christmas. That’ll cause a huge spike. Jan 2021 will see a further lockdown. It’ll carry on for the rest of 2021 but they’ll have developed a vaccine and cases will start coming down - albeit slowly - so areas and businesses will be allowed to slowly open up.

I’ve always been amazed that people believed it ‘would be over by Christmas and 2021 will be better’. It will. But not till the end of the year.

Op, what you have here, is all the frustrated people who insisted that we'd never have a vaccine.