When will cases start to drop?

[Jellysplat]

When do we think cases might begin to fall from the implementation of this lockdown? I can’t remember how long it took during the 1st and 2nd ones

Good question OP. I’m not sure - maybe in a couple of weeks? I suppose it depends on the spread of the new strain. It might be difficult to compare it with March last year, as it is apparently so much more infectious.

The ZOE symptom study app is already showing signs of a drop in cases over the last few days, this seemed to be the first indicator last time and the government figures took a little while to catch up

When testing reduces.

I would say you'll be able to see a proper reduction in mid Feb BUT that's just a prediction, I'm no professional.

I hope life goes slowly back to normal from May/June x

Around now I think OP, the figures won’t reflect that for a couple of weeks though.

I read something earlier saying we are 22 days away from peak but now I can't find the article to share.

When it's run through the population sufficient, in combination with the vaccine and death toll, to cause herd immunity

@Chimeraforce

When testing reduces.

What? I thought that had been disproven?

The average incubation period is 6 days I believe(?), then a few days to get tested and get the results. Plus some people will have a longer incubation period obviously.
So, if it’s working, 10 days from the start? So this Friday?
Then longer to see a drop in hospital cases and deaths, I think those dying at the moment will probably have caught it several weeks ago?

Apologies if I’ve made some wrong assumptions there.

The original modelling suggested a community peak about now but the variant and Christmas has rather put paid to that. It is flattening a bit in some areas, but there’s probably too many cases out there to get a good grip now until we lock down properly or get high numbers vaccinated.

Already dropping after a sharp rise in my area, though some surrounding are still on the up. I reckon they'll be uniformly down this time next week, as the Christmas spike where mixing was allowed on Christmas day (and where it wasn't but people did, anyhow) has passed.

Isn't it about 3 weeks from lock down?
So end of January?

Honestly I think in the hardest hit areas of the new strain (London and SE) it won't be long. Some areas are predicted to have over 50% having had covid recently so there will hopefully be some herd immunity boosted by vaccines.

Last time we locked down at the end of March, cases peaked in mid April then slowly started to decrease. So I'd say about 3 weeks after the start of lockdown?

Hopefully we don't come out of lockdown too quick with any "eat out to help out" this time. It needs to be slow and cautious.

I notice that when new case rates get really high death rates go up high about 2-3 weeks later. When death rates are still high but new cases start to fall about 2-3 weeks later death rates fall. Basically a 2-3 week lag on where we are now. I think this high death rate we have now is Xmas shopping and mixing over Xmas.

Zoe app seems to suggest symptoms are falling and that did prove to be the first sign of cases dropping last time.

The government website actually shows cases by specimen date in ENGLAND are starting to fall too

Hospitalisations typically follow a week or so behind positive tests and deaths another week or two after that. We should start to see hospitalisations fall by the end of next week, I think.

I’m not sure how soon we will start to see at least some impact from the vaccination programme. The first people to receive it will have had a good degree of immunity by Christmas, so those people are now “saved” from potential hospital admission, or at least their risk is greatly reduced.

Still rising in my area. And I still see people not following the rules. Man in the village shop the other day using the coffee machine, mask in his hand. Neither him or his mate used the hand sanitiser on the way in either! Post on Facebook last night about local National Trust property. Someone tagged 2 of her mates to arrange a meet up there tomorrow!

Cases do not necessarily mean illnesses.

I suspect they'll drop when the gov feels it has sufficiently covered its arse.

The local newspaper said where I live has already seen a decline in cases.

Over the next few days I think op

Obviously deaths much longer, the peak for that is very different and within 28 days of the peak of cases.

I suspect we have already reached the peak of cases. Which means hospitalisations and deaths will start to decline much later.

Zoe data is showing a small recent dip in cases nationally but a larger one in London which is quite encouraging.

Cases can start falling on any given day.

The issue is a sustained downward trend not only of cases but more importantly of hospitalisations.

Ideally covid hospitalisations will fall to a level that can be handled by the NHS without having an impact on other activities and these covid hospitalisations must never increase again.