When will cases start to drop?

[Jellysplat]

When do we think cases might begin to fall from the implementation of this lockdown? I can’t remember how long it took during the 1st and 2nd ones

When the government use the manufacturer guidelines on PCR threshold cycles as recommended by the WHO.

If they don’t it will be when typical cold/flu seasons abates.

When people start to get a grip and realise that they spread Covid....it doesn't spread itself!

Cases have dropped in my ward. Still rising in the country but the rate of growth has slowed from +70%, which was scary, to +15%, so I hope we're approaching the peak/levelling out here. Our levels are still low in comparison to other areas - 300 and something per 100k.

Still rising in the *county

@CarlottaValdez

Zoe app seems to suggest symptoms are falling and that did prove to be the first sign of cases dropping last time.

Not where I live! It's up by 400 from last week.

It will be a slightly different shape this time as we should be at the tail end of the peak caused by Xmas mixing. Growth rate will slow first, then plateau and then start to drop. If the measures are working, we should start to see a reduce 2-3 weeks after lockdown, but as I said, this could be distorted by lockdown coming off a peak of Xmas mixing cases

@bathsh3ba

Cases have dropped in my ward. Still rising in the country but the rate of growth has slowed from +70%, which was scary, to +15%, so I hope we're approaching the peak/levelling out here. Our levels are still low in comparison to other areas - 300 and something per 100k.

Where can i find this level of info? especially the growth rate? Thanks

Zoe has been pretty accurate for predicting national and regional trends. According to Zoe, UK numbers have already been going down for about 4 days.

I would not use Zoe for local authority or absolute numbers - these are much less reliable.

Hospitalisations in London reached 977 on January 6. The numbers for Jan 7 and 8 have been lower. This is encouraging although it is too early to say if Jan 6th was indeed the hospitalisation peak. We will need to see a more sustainable trend.

Thank you all this has been really enlightening!

They are peaking in the south and London who locked down earlier; but increasing in the north now the new variant is taking hold up there and the later lockdown hasn't yet taken effect.

I would imagine by the end of January we should start to see a difference.

They said on the news earlier that they are expecting the first week of February to be the worst in hospitals (ICU) so I’m guessing cases will stop dropping the end of January but deaths will still be high for a few weeks after.

I suspect they'll drop when the gov feels it has sufficiently covered its arse.
THIS. When the government starts reversing the scaremongering, and alters the definition of "cases" to make it LOOK as if the cases are dropping. I'm sure that one reason they're laying on the doom and gloom right now is so they can manipulate things later, and say "looooooooooooook! The vacCEEN is working!!!!!!!!! We're doing a fantastic job!!!!! Time to go out and spend, spend, spend!"

@GrumpySausage, sorry I only just saw this. It's on the government coronavirus data page, you can enter your postcode and it gives you info for your ward, council area and region.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Look on Covidmessenger. Cases are falling in lots of areas. They've fallen lots where I live.

Using Zoe data, a poster on this board said very confidently, three times, back in November, "The pandemic is over." Clearly not. I would be wary of similar interpretations now. Also:

twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1348080234265006082?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1348080234265006082%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news.com.au%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fireland-experiencing-covid19-surge-biggest-daily-increase-anywhere-in-the-world%2Fnews-story%2F03a37873e44070eed2a252cfbd1b4624

@Lovemusic33

They said on the news earlier that they are expecting the first week of February to be the worst in hospitals (ICU) so I’m guessing cases will stop dropping the end of January but deaths will still be high for a few weeks after.

Do you mean highest for deaths, because that takes about twenty eight days, three to four weeks really. So the peak in cases would be now. Which the drops hopefully are now showing.

Infections are dropping, 25% week on week today (Tuesday) and the trend is down, unfortunately there's a 2-3 lag for hospital admissions and longer for deaths so need to expect that