When restrictions ease after vaccination ...

[Arcadia]

I am worried about this. I am 46 and in reasonably good health, with a child in yr 6 primary (moving to secondary next year) and a partner who works at a hospital (non clinical but sometimes goes into wards checking and distributing PPE).

I work partially in an office and partially at home. I will be expected to see clients and possibly attend court hearings when restrictions ease.

Once the older and vulnerable groups have been vaccinated, then so far as I can see Covid will still be circulating - even if the vaccine stops people catching and passing it on, which isn't yet certain, it will be circulating freely in the younger population. So I will almost certainly get it once restrictions ease.

I don't want restrictions to continue any more than is necessary but am I right to think the likelihood is that particularly us 'older' non vaccinated ones could still end up getting quite ill with it? Seems to be a bit of a lottery. I realise we need to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed, but it's still a pretty unwelcome prospect isn't it?

I'm obviously happy about vaccination rollout and protection of the most vulnerable, and I've maintained a pretty cheerful outlook throughout but I can't think of a different way that this could go.

So I will almost certainly get it once restrictions ease.

Why?

Rates will be naturally much lower by the time restrictions ease, due to seasonality. Isn't it the expectation that all adults will be vaccinated by the end of the year?

@IcedPurple we had lower rates in the summer but that was after a prolonged lockdown (harsher than this one) and months of strict restrictions, and without the new variant which is more transmissible. Schools were shut for six months. Plenty of hot countries have had a bad time with it (and we're not always hot here even in summer!).
If I got a vaccine by the end of the year that's still nearly a year away!

That's how I feel too.
With the new variant, transmission is this high even with restrictions in place. If the restrictions are relaxed then surely we will start seeing many, many more times the current number of daily cases? It's not been the over 70s spreading the virus out and about in the community so vaccinating them won't reduce transmission. Of course I agree we can't lockdown all year either but I'm still concerned for me and friends in their 30s and 40s feel the same.

[quote Arcadia]@IcedPurple we had lower rates in the summer but that was after a prolonged lockdown (harsher than this one) and months of strict restrictions, and without the new variant which is more transmissible. Schools were shut for six months. Plenty of hot countries have had a bad time with it (and we're not always hot here even in summer!).
If I got a vaccine by the end of the year that's still nearly a year away! [/quote]
There is plenty of evidence that the virus is highly seasonal - compare the very low rates last summer with light restrictions to the very high current rates with lockdown. It's very likely, especially with widespread vaccination, that rates will drop in spring and summer, even with the new variant. So no, you won't 'almost certainly' get the virus once restrictions are eased.

What's your suggestion? Lockdown - with the destruction of thousands of jobs and industries - until every single person is vaccinated?

Isn't it the same as any risk (e.g. catching the flu, contracting sepsis, being in a car accident)? Catching covid when you're 46 with no health conditions carries a very small risk, like a lot of things, but you and everyone else can't stop living their lives. Chances are you've already had it and were asymptomatic.

Why do you think people your age will suddenly start getting quite ill with it, when they have not been for the last year?

Yes, I think you’re right. Restrictions will be eased once CV and elderly are vaccinated. That means a lot of people in their 30s to 60s who are not CV will probably get covid before their vaccination slot comes up.

However for many of us it will be very mild or even asymptomatic. For many it will be a nasty few weeks. For a very few it may trigger post viral fatigue. For an even smaller few it may kill us, but this will be very rare.

Bluntly that’s a risk we will have to take. The alternative is keeping life locked down until late autumn when everyone is vaccinated. That would lead to all sorts of damage to health, economy and long term prospects for millions.

Remember there have always been some illnesses around which can make us unwell for a couple of weeks and could occasionally trigger post viral fatigue or even very rarely kill youngish healthy people. Covid is going to be another one of those. Life has never been risk free.

Yes the new variant is more transmissible. But it’s still reduced by heat, humidity and ventilation the same as any other virus. Plus the added effect of reduced transmission because some people will be vaccinated. Summer will be safer and by winter everyone will be vaccinated. Even if you do catch it, deaths will have massively reduced so there will be an NHS bed for you if necessary.

I am certainly not in favour of any more restrictions than necessary and in fact have been fairly okay about the possibility of catching it since my initial fears died down in late spring.

I think what it is, is that the general sense of panic and the harsher restrictions is signalling 'danger' to my subconscious mind, which in turn is making me worry again more. Also the media ramping up the fear again may be affecting me.

Yes, we will get it at some point in all probability. I am in the same age bracket as you.
The difference hopefully is that hospitals will be emptier so if you are very unwell you will be seen faster. Also, even though you may still pass it on, it won’t be reaching and killing an older or vulnerable person.
You do realise that under 50’s with no health problems are very unlikely to be seriously ill?
Do you worry about getting other illnesses or viruses? Many other viruses can make you unwell?

Do I worry about other illnesses? Yes @Littlewhitedove2 I'm a bit of a hypochondriac. When I know norovirus is doing the rounds I hate it - but at least it's not constantly in the news.

I’m 43 and slightly overweight but I’ll be getting out as soon as they lift the restrictions, vaccine or no vaccine. I’ll take proportionate and sensible precautions but this is not a healthy or sustainable way for us to live.

@Arcadia

Do I worry about other illnesses? Yes *@Littlewhitedove2* I'm a bit of a hypochondriac. When I know norovirus is doing the rounds I hate it - but at least it's not constantly in the news.

Ok, tell me, are you overweight? Do you have any underlying health conditions?

@Arcadia

I am certainly not in favour of any more restrictions than necessary and in fact have been fairly okay about the possibility of catching it since my initial fears died down in late spring.

I think what it is, is that the general sense of panic and the harsher restrictions is signalling 'danger' to my subconscious mind, which in turn is making me worry again more. Also the media ramping up the fear again may be affecting me.

But that’s ok. I assume you need to work because you need the money, but you can continue to wear ppe, socially distant and stay at home the rest of the time. There is no law that says you can’t go out in a mask and visor, wipe surfaces, socially distance, stay home the rest of the time. You can ask your husband to do the same. Or try to isolate yourself at home. Your child is more difficult obviously.

You can just explain to peoole you have severe anxiety and are struggling to cope and do what you can to protect yourself.

@Fragileandcomposed

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

Yep o can really see people all living on the streets in poverty /no school etc jeez

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4130524-How-do-people-see-Coronavirus-ending-worldwide

@Bluntness100 I don't have severe anxiety and myself and my family have been out and about throughout the pandemic, as much as rules have allowed, and as required for school and work. I'm just thinking through the logical sequence but have reflected (see post above) that I think I'm just a bit more worried again because of the media and severity of the situation but I know rationally that I am not likely to get seriously ill.

@Bluntness100 my partner can't stay at home he works in a hospital distributing PPE sometimes in the wards. I'm fine with that.

@Bluntness100

Why do you think people your age will suddenly start getting quite ill with it, when they have not been for the last year?

Because we have restrictions in place for almost a year, which has lowered our chances of getting it. Social distancing, sanitising stations in supermarkets, masks in shops, encouraged to WFH etc. When all this is scrapped infections will increase extremely rapidly.

I can't imagine the gov easing many restrictions until all over 50s and vulnerable are vaccinated though- ICU will be overwhelmed with people in their 50s getting hospitalised (these are the people who are still going out to work as well) - it will probably be down to Tiers in March and even Tier 1 is still pretty restrictive- WFH, table service in pubs, masks etc...

@citrusshowergel I think you've got my point. I would hope that it's done sensibly rather than letting it rip through the under 50s otherwise we're just back to herd immunity that didn't work aren't we? And increased risk of mutations the more it is transmitted (although hopefully in time becoming a milder strain as happened with other coronavirus s and Spanish flu).

To put it bluntly, the aim is only to prevent the NHS being overrun. Even with the vaccine people will get ill and need hospitalisation and die, but in far fewer numbers than now. Restrictions will have to be eased at some point and we will have to take our chances, just like we do with every other virus that can hospitalise people.