When restrictions ease after vaccination ...

[Arcadia]

I am worried about this. I am 46 and in reasonably good health, with a child in yr 6 primary (moving to secondary next year) and a partner who works at a hospital (non clinical but sometimes goes into wards checking and distributing PPE).

I work partially in an office and partially at home. I will be expected to see clients and possibly attend court hearings when restrictions ease.

Once the older and vulnerable groups have been vaccinated, then so far as I can see Covid will still be circulating - even if the vaccine stops people catching and passing it on, which isn't yet certain, it will be circulating freely in the younger population. So I will almost certainly get it once restrictions ease.

I don't want restrictions to continue any more than is necessary but am I right to think the likelihood is that particularly us 'older' non vaccinated ones could still end up getting quite ill with it? Seems to be a bit of a lottery. I realise we need to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed, but it's still a pretty unwelcome prospect isn't it?

I'm obviously happy about vaccination rollout and protection of the most vulnerable, and I've maintained a pretty cheerful outlook throughout but I can't think of a different way that this could go.

I would hope that it's done sensibly rather than letting it rip through the under 50s otherwise we're just back to herd immunity that didn't work aren't we?

No, not really.

Quite a few under 50s have already had the virus, and the aim is to get the most vulnerable vaccinated - ie given artificial immunity (or something close) - by March. So not herd immunity, or 'letting the virus rip'.

There will always be exceptions, but if you're under 50 and in good health, in all probability you would have a mild illness if you were to contract it. I'm 51 and don't expect the economy and society to be put on hold indefinitely just in case I might get what would probably be no worse than a bad cold.

@InterfectoremVulpes

To put it bluntly, the aim is only to prevent the NHS being overrun. Even with the vaccine people will get ill and need hospitalisation and die, but in far fewer numbers than now. Restrictions will have to be eased at some point and we will have to take our chances, just like we do with every other virus that can hospitalise people.

I agree with this but I do understand your concerns OP. It is very difficult not to be really scares at the moment. It also isn't true (as a PP said) to say you've probably already had it; most adult infections are not asymptomatic. All I can say is I am 43, overweight and I've had it. It was an unpleasant few weeks but I feel calmer the other side of it and am taking a lot of steps to improve my health so I can deal with it again if I need to..

I don't know if it's been mentioned but us CEV are still going to shield even when we've had both vaccines. I don't think it's going to be a magical lift of restrictions like everyone wants, I think restrictions of some degree will be here for quite sometime.

@InterfectoremVulpes

To put it bluntly, the aim is only to prevent the NHS being overrun. Even with the vaccine people will get ill and need hospitalisation and die, but in far fewer numbers than now. Restrictions will have to be eased at some point and we will have to take our chances, just like we do with every other virus that can hospitalise people.

Yes this

@TheHobbitMum

I don't know if it's been mentioned but us CEV are still going to shield even when we've had both vaccines. I don't think it's going to be a magical lift of restrictions like everyone wants, I think restrictions of some degree will be here for quite sometime.

Of course because you can still transmit

You may be early in schedule so you’ll need to wait until enough have had vaccine

Well, OP, at 46 you will probably be in the first group in phase 2 of vaccinations - unless they decide to introduce occupational priorities as many are campaigning for. So there a good chance you will be getting your first jab by late Spring.

To put it bluntly, the aim is only to prevent the NHS being overrun. Even with the vaccine people will get ill and need hospitalisation and die, but in far fewer numbers than now. Restrictions will have to be eased at some point and we will have to take our chances, just like we do with every other virus that can hospitalise people

Absolutely this!

I think a lot of people think once they’ve had the vaccine they will be protected and won’t get the virus. This is simply isn’t true.

No vaccine is 100% effective, some people will still get the infection. Vaccines help to prevent transmission to other people and help to reduce the risk of serious illness and complications and the risk of hospital admission. This is why it’s becoming rolled out to vulnerable people first, to help reduce the risk of hospital admissions for those people more likely to develop complications.

I agree op and as we know younger people with no uc have become very ill / died/ now have long Covid.
I’ve been assuming masks and distancing will feature for a long time because of your point.

@HeronLanyon

I agree op and as we know younger people with no uc have become very ill / died/ now have long Covid. I’ve been assuming masks and distancing will feature for a long time because of your point.

Why if numbers no longer overwhelm hospitals?

@HeronLanyon

I agree op and as we know younger people with no uc have become very ill / died/ now have long Covid. I’ve been assuming masks and distancing will feature for a long time because of your point.

Whole industries employing millions of people - hospitality, entertainment, tourism, transport, the arts, leisure etc - simply cannot function at a profit with social distancing. Many businesses have already collapsed.

How long, in your view, should the economy suffer just so that nobody - even those statistically highly likely to only have a mild illness - get the virus?

@HeronLanyon

I agree op and as we know younger people with no uc have become very ill / died/ now have long Covid. I’ve been assuming masks and distancing will feature for a long time because of your point.

One small positive to come out of all this would be a change in the culture of expecting people to just 'soldier on' if they're unwell. Wearing a mask in public if you are full of cold would become the norm too.

@Arcadia I'm 40, a little overweight and asthmatic. I had it over xmas and honestly, I've had worse colds. I still worked from home with it.

This is what gets lost in all the media screaming. MOST people will have a viral illness akin to a cold. Where in any previous year you would take a few days off work, watch tv in bed and lament that your cough is stopping you sleeping.

This is what covid will end up as, eventually. It'll be another seasonal virus that most likely puts winter pressure on the NHS as every seasonal virus does.

I feel your pain op. I'm only early 30s and in relatively good health yet no way do I want it. I've seen how long it takes my friends out for and the effects of long covid. Ill be payinf for a private one if not nhs.

I think restrictions will be eased slowly in the hope of keeping infection rates low; I work in a job going into peoples homes which we’re now largely managing through video calls and I’m imagining it’ll still be a spa return to it.
I’m no more fearful of getting it than I am of getting the flu, sickness bugs etc in that I’d rather not get it and I’ll take measures to avoid it but I’m low risk. I’m more worried about getting ill from something else and the hospitals being so full that they struggle to treat me

@Lelophants. Out of interest, how many people do you know who have, or have had, long covid?

[quote lightand]@Lelophants. Out of interest, how many people do you know who have, or have had, long covid?[/quote]
I can think of 3 people at the top of my head who I know have had it and have some long covid symptoms (which are varied). I 'know of' more people but don't know as many personal details. Way more than a bog standard flu basically.

This is my way of thinking about what will happen, as a lay person. As more of the older age groups and vulnerable are vaccinated, thereby reducing their chances of contracting the virus, the rates of illness in those age groups will markedly decline. Meanwhile, the younger age groups, who are as yet unprotected, will still continue to catch and spread the virus, which will continue mutating and may become even more transmissible, or (hopefully!) may become weaker. We simply don't know at this point.

Whitty said restrictions will only be slowly eased, not suddenly. I would expect mask wearing and social distancing to continue on throughout 2021. How many people will take notice of that, is another matter. More people in younger age groups will become ill with the virus, in many cases they will just have a mild illness, but inevitably, some will become very ill and die or develop Long Covid.

Your best plan of action, OP, is to get yourself as healthy as you can, make sure you have very good levels of Vitamin D and keep carbs low. Take supplements such as zinc and Vit C. There's no way you can guarantee you won't catch it, so you need to do your best to minimise contact, and keep your home well-ventilated (hopefully easier in summer!)

Yes, @Lelophants
I have long covid, which is way worse than flu. The actual initial symptoms, which lasted for two weeks in my case, werent nearly as bad as previous flu, by a long way. Flu has me bedridden, covid didnt.
But I think I was "unlucky" in that Long covid only affects 1 in 20 who have covid. The worst of long covid lasted 6 months in my case[again I think that was more than average even for long covid]. And that did mean I spent an enormous time on bed.

What I think I am trying to say, is that I dont think, for those under say 70, it is a very problematic illness for the majority. And certainly not worth devastating our economy for.

It is a problem for keeping the NHS not being overwhelmed, If it wasnt for that, there would not really be a justifiable reason for everything that is happening.

Doctors are investigating long Covid. It is starting to look like it is psychosomatic in part.

So I don’t think scaremongering the op is right. People posting they know multiple people when it’s so rare.

Bottom line is this is a benign illness for people in the ops demographic with a very very low instance of death, she has less risk than she would with flu.

As you work in a busy place, husband works for the NHS and child goes to school you may well have had it already.

I am your age and more likely to get cancer than be seriously sick with this virus.

Once restrictions are over enjoy life and don't worry about things that are statistically unlikely.

I can think of 3 people at the top of my head who I know have had it and have some long covid symptoms (which are varied). I 'know of' more people but don't know as many personal details. Way more than a bog standard flu basically.

I dont believe you. Given at worse case scenario we're talking 150,000 people with "long" covid across the whole country that you would know at least 3, if not more of them.

I smell bullshit.

I counted in my head the people I know who have had covid (I actually know, not know of - I know a lot of nursing and teaching staff btw) and I got to 53.
All are fine. All of them. None have been in hospital. A handful said it was a bad flu. Some didn’t even know until they got positive antibody tests.