Am I missing something?

[BPCoveredInSpots]

I try to keep on top of what’s going on.
Most days I check the figures - local and national. I attempt to keep up with government statements, guidelines and u-turns. I ignore hyperbolic media sources that love the dramatic doom and gloom aspect of Covid.

My take is that whilst Covid isn’t a serious threat in terms of deaths, it has a high hospitalisation rate and as such is a big risk to life as we know it right now. This seems obvious.
We’re also finding more out about long Covid (around 1 in 10).

However I am seeing more and more people, intelligent people whose opinions I respect in other matters, having very different takes on the whole situation, with things like

1. The numbers are being made up.
2. Hospitals are not overcrowded, this is political spin.
3. Death certificates are being filled in with Covid to inflate the figures.
4. The government is using a mild illness to sneak in more and more control measures - make us blindly comply and lose our freedom.
5. The great barrington declaration.
6. Only the vulnerable should shield, everyone else should be allowed to get on with it.

I don’t believe these things.
I think there’s been plenty of government incompetence, lack of action followed by panic and last minute decisions.

I’m not a dr or a scientist, but I do feel I know enough to refute all the above points.

My biggest question though is why?
Am I missing information?
Is there truth in these? For what end? Any evidence of it (apart from manipulated statistics that feature heavily in the Covid denier narrative).

To the PP who suggested that there local hospital was quiet, did it occur to you that perhaps it's because infection control measures are in place to stop patients like yourself coming into contact with those who have or may have Covid?! Are we really in such a place that that seems an inconceivable concept but the idea that your local hospital isn't affected is such a thing?

The reality is, the NHS is overwhelmed. It's already overwhelmed.

My personal belief is that some individuals find it easier to pretend to themselves that this isn't a real life issue than accepting the realities of the situation, it's more comfortable to accept lies and conspiracies as truths than accept the really bleak picture which is playing out before us.

@DenisetheMenace

We were all initially told that this was something that only affected the elderly. Sadly, lots of people think that group is dispensable. We now know that it affects a much wider demographic but for some reason that message just hasn’t go through and lots of people still believe it won’t affect them because they’re not old.

Exactly, and the reality is, yes in healthcare, there are some individuals who we know are statistically or technically more like to experience severe Covid due to their previous risk factors or vulnerabilities in their health, and need intense medical and nursing intervention.

But there's also a (relatively) large number of individuals with no risk factors, or indications in their previous medical history that they may become seriously unwell from Covid who do become acutely unwell, and this is the concern. It could happen to you, or your friend, or your postman - it isn't a disease that solely affects the vulnerable or elderly. This is a dangerous misconception.

@GetOffYourHighHorse

'The hospital has been empty every time. Usually just me and one other patient in the waiting room. Nobody in the corridors, nobody in the wards. Just nurses and doctors chatting.'

It's because they're all rammed in covid and critical care wards! Granted I imagine orthopaedic, surgery and gynae will be fairly quiet as all elective stuff cancelled and staff redeployed.

It is astonishing that some people really think a quiet corridor or waiting room represents anything. The urgency in Simon Stevens and Chris Whitty's voices at recent press conferences has been alarming. They have no reason to exaggerate anything, the grim hospitalisation numbers speak for themselves.

Well said @GetOffYourHighHorse

It could happen to you, or your friend, or your postman - it isn't a disease that solely affects the vulnerable or elderly. This is a dangerous misconception

Yes it could but so could many things. I could die in a car crash, get run over or get diagnosed with terminal cancer. Our lives are full of risk and we have to make calculations every day as to what is an acceptable risk and what is not. On a normal year I'd be doing extreme sports in fairly dangerous countries with little access to healthcare. Many people would not be happy taking this risk which is completely fair enough.

On a personal level I am not worried about the risk of getting seriously ill with covid. But I understand the risk to other, more vulnerable, people and to our health service which is why we are taking the measures that we are.

I go to hospitals a lot for appointments and yes the corridors and waiting rooms are empty. This is because people wait in their cars till they are called in, patients are not allowed to roam the corridors and get coffee etc and obviously, visitors are not allowed.

In answer to the OP, I think people choose to believe it is being overegged or even a conspiracy because that is more pleasant and then they don’t need to worry. Also, if it hasn’t affected their family yet then it is easy to believe that COVID is some remote and fictional non entity.

It is not surprising that people question things . As one poster said governments have a history of lying to their people and the way that this government has acted has shown not only ineptitude but nepotism and capitalism in how they have offered contracts to their mates and how they have not released data about the number of tests being taken and in what settings.

When you have an absence of information then it’s not surprising that this vacuum gets filled with many different theories .

Then you have books like this published by the founder of the WEF

www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/54498122-covid-19

I am not a denier, anyone logically can see this sadly exists but it is right to question things/ analyse things and research from a variety of sources to understand all the implications as these are far reaching

'In answer to the OP, I think people choose to believe it is being overegged or even a conspiracy because that is more pleasant and then they don’t need to worry. Also, if it hasn’t affected their family yet then it is easy to believe that COVID is some remote and fictional non entity.'

Yes it gives them permission to continue to be an arse and do what they like.

'As one poster said governments have a history of lying to their people'

So you think the CMO, CSA, PHE, NHS CEO and all the nhs staff particularly critical consultants are all in on this great conspiracy? For what purpose?! The gov don't want the country in lockdown they wanted targeted approaches but people 'couldn't understand' the very simple instructions in different tiers so many thickos just carried on as normal.

Thread after thread on here about civil liberties and dictatorships when rates initially went up in sep. Look where we are now. Every person who is flouting shares some responsibility.

The civil liberties argument is very trite as well. The development of Liberty and citizen rights has always taken account of the need for governments to impose limits when in a state of emergency and specifically public health emergencies. The advocacy for democracy, liberty and rights is to ensure that these can survive a state of emergency. It is not to never have a state of emergency.

It rarely happens and if anything our governments in western Europe have been hugely reluctant to use powers to restrict people and have rolled them back as soon as they can.

The only thing from your list I have been told is true from a doctor (and friend) is that a ‘covid patient’ will be included in the hospital admissions list if they have gone in for ANY reason - ie an op, to a and e for something different etc. They may go in and be treated unrelated to covid but be classed in the figures as another covid admission.

I don’t see this as suspicious, though, it’s to keep track of numbers and technically that person with covid has been in the hospital I guess? Even if not treated for covid.

As for the others..they got the numbers wrong but it’s not exactly an easy thing to track is it.

As for political control, of course there’s elements of that. It’s always been that way, regardless of covid.

The thing that makes this so unbelievable to people is that for nearly all, it’s not a virus that will harm us. Yes there’s exceptions to that and yes long covid etc but essentially in the main people feel shit and recover in a few days at home. This makes people frustrated and annoyed that their lives are being fucked up, often more so than the impact of the virus itself would be on them!

It’s difficult to get across to people that if the hospitals are full, they may not get treatment for other illnesses or accidents. However, the nightingales are empty...people don’t believe the government that hospitals are full, understandably. The answe that there’s not enough staff to work in the nightingales doesn’t add up - why on earth build them in that case? Of course people have lost faith. The virus will carry on and it’s doubtful the vaccines will keep up. Unfortunately I don’t think that will be accepted for a long time yet.

The answe that there’s not enough staff to work in the nightingales doesn’t add up - why on earth build them in that case?

Yes I agree with this. It's completely fair enough that people are questioning why we spent so much money building huge emergency wards that are now being left empty or are being wound down.

Of course it's frustrating hearing the covid deniers but to be honest I get just as frustrated hearing people parrot whatever Boris Johnson / Chris Witty has just said and calling everyone else idiots. There's a lot of arse covering going on by the govt right now and we should all be thinking critically and asking the tough questions.

Discussions around civil liberties, the importance of healthcare vs the economy, how we deal with end of life etc. aren't trite. They're important philosophical debates that have raged for millennia. There are no simple answers here.

@carlaCox

The answe that there’s not enough staff to work in the nightingales doesn’t add up - why on earth build them in that case?

Yes I agree with this. It's completely fair enough that people are questioning why we spent so much money building huge emergency wards that are now being left empty or are being wound down.

Of course it's frustrating hearing the covid deniers but to be honest I get just as frustrated hearing people parrot whatever Boris Johnson / Chris Witty has just said and calling everyone else idiots. There's a lot of arse covering going on by the govt right now and we should all be thinking critically and asking the tough questions.

Discussions around civil liberties, the importance of healthcare vs the economy, how we deal with end of life etc. aren't trite. They're important philosophical debates that have raged for millennia. There are no simple answers here.

@carlaCox totally agree. FWIW I think it’s abhorrent that there are fines for meeting a friend for a walk. I will never agree with it. I take covid seriously and always socially distance but it is utterly wrong to fine people for meeting. It won’t be sustainable and the virus won’t disappear. I do wonder if when the vaccine doesn’t work for new strains, if people will then start to accept that we have to stop these restrictions and that we cannot contain a spread in the way we have tried and already failed to do so.

@Setal

But the problem is that there's no way of knowing that it isn't going to harm you. The major of hospital patients at the moment are under 60. They won't die in most cases but they'll potentially end up with long-term damage. (Not all, it clearly hasn't happened to Boris.)

The majority of long Covid patients (like me) are between 30 and 60; the youngest case I've heard of was a young mum of 28.

A lot of people with seemingly mild cases don't recover well either.

Then you have others who are scarcely affected at all, or are asymptomatic. These are the majority, thankfully, but there's no way of knowing who is going to be seriously ill.

Think of that 36 year old man who developed Covid and died during the night. Perhaps if there was less complacency among younger people, perhaps he and his brother would have called 111 and he would have been taken into hospitals and he would be alive today.

This isn't scaremongering. There are some people who are determined not to listen to warnings about risks to younger people.

That was supposed to say 'the majority of hospital patients'. Maybe it isn't a majority, I don't know the stats, but a lot of hospital patient are under 60. This is why hospitals are overcrowded right now.

Well, apologies for having an experience that nobody on here wants me to have had

There is no covid ward in my hospital. A nearby secondary school was set up to act as a covid hospital but they've been very quiet. Was in the local paper in november that they were thinking of closing. That's probably changed due to second spike though.

The sarkiness on this thread is something else, and the lack of willingness to understand my words because you want to get in a dig.

I get it, you're sick of hearing nonsense on social media. But I'm not those people. I'm not claiming my hospital's case represents the whole of Britain (and I'm not in England btw), and I'm not saying it's because covid isn't happening.

I'm just concerned that a lot of people with non-covid will be very ill or die this year because waiting lists for non-covid related things are now so extensive.

My illness is potentially life threatening but the test to confirm that either way has been put back and put back because its in a specialist unit in another hospital that is currently doing next to nothing because of the deployment to covid (fair enough - it's clearly necessary to put the resource to it). But i'm not the only one, by a long shot.

That's my concern.

But you can carry on bitching at me for my ignorance if you want to. Even though I'm not saying what you think I'm saying.

Maybe it isn't a majority, I don't know the stats, but a lot of hospital patient are under 60.

According to the BBC:
Among those aged 15-44, fewer than one in 100,000 was critically ill with Covid in December. And around three in every 100,000 people aged 45-64 are becoming seriously ill with Covid and being admitted to intensive care units.

Twenty-seven deaths have occurred among under-19s who tested positive for Covid-19, according to NHS England, and 317 among 20 to 39-year-olds.

For perspective:
According to a quick Google, in pre-covid times a 20 year old woman has around a 1 in 2000 chance of dying in the next 12 months. A 40 year old woman has around a 1 in 650 chance of dying in the next 12 months. So as a woman in my thirties it would be irrational for me to worry about dying of covid vs. dying of any other cause.

@carlaCox

A 40 year old woman does have a very low chance of dying of Covid. But I wonder what the chances are of her developing long Covid? There are a large number of women that age who are suffering from long Covid. And a lot of them don't have any underlying health issues and are not obese. (I don't fit this pattern; I'm obese and already suffered from CFS beforehand.)

I also wasn't talking about the risk of dying, I was talking about the numbers needing hospital treatment. I mentioned the young man who died to make the point that if the risks to younger people weren't minimised as much as they have been, he might have called 111, in which case he would have been taken into hospital and survived. He shouldn't have died.

The one thing we do know is that obesity plays more of a part than age in determining the seriousness of the illness.

[quote Mittens030869]@Setal

But the problem is that there's no way of knowing that it isn't going to harm you. The major of hospital patients at the moment are under 60. They won't die in most cases but they'll potentially end up with long-term damage. (Not all, it clearly hasn't happened to Boris.)

The majority of long Covid patients (like me) are between 30 and 60; the youngest case I've heard of was a young mum of 28.

A lot of people with seemingly mild cases don't recover well either.

Then you have others who are scarcely affected at all, or are asymptomatic. These are the majority, thankfully, but there's no way of knowing who is going to be seriously ill.

Think of that 36 year old man who developed Covid and died during the night. Perhaps if there was less complacency among younger people, perhaps he and his brother would have called 111 and he would have been taken into hospitals and he would be alive today.

This isn't scaremongering. There are some people who are determined not to listen to warnings about risks to younger people. [/quote]
Yes I totally get that. I didn’t say there was no risk, I acknowledged that there was.

Unfortunately there is much more destruction happening in people’s lives than the impact that would be had by covid. I say this as someone very much in the middle class and largely protected financially and otherwise. But quite obviously I am in a majority, most people’s struggles because of covid is not from the virus itself. That is a simple fact and many would rather have their days back to how they were and risk the potential danger of the virus. It CAN harm young people, it USUALLY doesn’t.

I should have clarified that I was once again talking about the risk of being seriously ill enough to need hospital treatment. Death is definitely very heavily weighted towards the 80 plus age range, hence the focus on vaccinating that age group.

*a minority that should say!

@BPCoveredInSpots

“ I’m not a dr or a scientist,”

All I need to read.

I think some (not so nice) people will try to find ways to sneak out of whatever is not of their convenience, specially if it negatively affects their lives, like making less profit at work or being unable to visit their mistress during lockdown.
Clever ones can be very manipulative and come up with all sort of "good reasons".
Unfortunately, this kind of people makes it to all walks of live. They should be sieved out of some proffesions, like doctors, but it looks like they get through sometimes.
Anyway, they are spreading BS, so nod and ignore.

The one thing we do know is that obesity plays more of a part than age in determining the seriousness of the illness.

I should have clarified that I was once again talking about the risk of being seriously ill enough to need hospital treatment. Death is definitely very heavily weighted towards the 80 plus age range, hence the focus on vaccinating that age group.

Sorry, but you're wrong here. The risks of both severe covid and death are strongly linked with age. Obesity is secondary for both outcomes. I'm not sure how you came to this conclusion, it's logically inconsistent to think that the risk factors for severe covid and death are different, since you don't die of mild covid.

You don't die of mild Covid, but it can turn into long Covid, which is what I'm trying to say. And a lot of people who are not elderly are going to hospital though they're not dying. That is what we're hearing on the news. Not young, but under 60s.

I have long Covid myself. I was never at risk of death (though it felt like it when I was at my worst) but life as I knew it has changed completely.

If we were more careful, it is true that fewer people would be going to hospital, making hospitals more able to treat other illnesses.

I should have clarified that I was once again talking about the risk of being seriously ill enough to need hospital treatment

A quick Google shows each week around 5-10 in every 100,000 15-44 year olds are being admitted to hospital with covid. For comparison, around 5-10 in every 100,000 30-44 year old women are being diagnosed with cancer each week (according to CRUK). So the probability that I'm of hospitalised with coronavirus next week is about the same as the probability of me being diagnosed with cancer. But, given my age, I'm significantly more likely to survive covid than cancer.

So yes, of course it's a risk but no, it's not going to keep me up at night anymore than any other illness is.