Am I missing something?

[BPCoveredInSpots]

I try to keep on top of what’s going on.
Most days I check the figures - local and national. I attempt to keep up with government statements, guidelines and u-turns. I ignore hyperbolic media sources that love the dramatic doom and gloom aspect of Covid.

My take is that whilst Covid isn’t a serious threat in terms of deaths, it has a high hospitalisation rate and as such is a big risk to life as we know it right now. This seems obvious.
We’re also finding more out about long Covid (around 1 in 10).

However I am seeing more and more people, intelligent people whose opinions I respect in other matters, having very different takes on the whole situation, with things like

1. The numbers are being made up.
2. Hospitals are not overcrowded, this is political spin.
3. Death certificates are being filled in with Covid to inflate the figures.
4. The government is using a mild illness to sneak in more and more control measures - make us blindly comply and lose our freedom.
5. The great barrington declaration.
6. Only the vulnerable should shield, everyone else should be allowed to get on with it.

I don’t believe these things.
I think there’s been plenty of government incompetence, lack of action followed by panic and last minute decisions.

I’m not a dr or a scientist, but I do feel I know enough to refute all the above points.

My biggest question though is why?
Am I missing information?
Is there truth in these? For what end? Any evidence of it (apart from manipulated statistics that feature heavily in the Covid denier narrative).

@PrincessNutNuts

Ive heard that anyone dying who tested positive with covid will have it on their death certificates no matter what they died of. What that does to the 'official' figures i don't know. It's just so hard to know what to believe anymore isn't it?

It really isn't.

And there's also deaths within 60 days of a positive covid test. There were 1,132 of those reported yesterday and the total stands at 88,444.

People don't die as quickly as they did in April now we that have Dexamethasone and better treatment protocols.

Although of course people will start dying quickly again now that the hospitals are overwhelmed and some people won't be admitted when they should be and some who are admitted won't get the usual level of care.

I’m in East London and let me just say it is So Serious here, it’s frightening .
My mum is 84, highly vulnerable and she is only getting the vaccine on Monday .
London is like a “ghost town “.

Believing there’s more to health than fighting a single disease isn’t burying my head in the sand. Screaming for ever tighter restrictions and keeping children out of school doesn’t make you a better person than someone else. Believing staying at home transfers risk to others who have to bring you stuff isn’t some weird conspiracy theory.

I believe in Covid and am not anti some restrictions but believing that you can control an endemic virus in winter to the extent people want to aim for zero Covid is as nonsensical as a conspiracy theory. I think too much time away from others had driven people to the brink.

Can't answer everything, but I can respond to two things.
My daughter (nurse) works in a hospital. One area is dedicated to non-covid patients (heart attacks, appendicitis, childbirth, etc. and accidents). That area is quiet sometimes -- even almost empty on occasion. Elective surgeries have been cancelled. This area is for
medical conditions that can't wait!
However the other floors where visitors are not permitted are full of covid cases and have been for months. And my daughter got covid at work, recovered at home, and returned to work. She also passed the covid on to her husband.
As for Death Certificates -- all could be filled out as heart failure.
however, the question is - What caused the heart failure? - and that leads to respiratory arrest due to covid.

Believing there’s more to health than fighting a single disease isn’t burying my head in the sand. Screaming for ever tighter restrictions and keeping children out of school doesn’t make you a better person than someone else. Believing staying at home transfers risk to others who have to bring you stuff isn’t some weird conspiracy theory.

But it isnt just any "disease", it's a highly infectious disease that is new and much about it is still unknown. People are catching it in hospital, people who are already weakened by serious illness

I believe in Covid and am not anti some restrictions but believing that you can control an endemic virus in winter to the extent people want to aim for zero Covid is as nonsensical as a conspiracy theory. I think too much time away from others had driven people to the brink.

The plan isn't to "aim for zero covid", the plan is to keep the NHS functioning. If the health services collapse then there would be no help at all for those on the brink. Mental health services are still functioning ATM, but if they can't due to an out of control virus, what then for those with serious MH problems, who need those services on a regular basis?

I think it’s people’s way of dealing with the stress we’re all under. The news is so awful every day, and so different to what most of us have known for most of our lives, that people cling onto their own reality. Which if they live somewhere quiet and not crowded, or don’t know anyone who has had Covid (or not had it seriously), and are not good at interpreting and assessing information about the vaccine, or spend a lot of time on echo-chamber social media, it will all come together and make them believe a certain narrative.

Sometimes I listen to a news bulletin or think about what is happening at the moment, eg how it is illegal to leave my house without a specific reason, and have a few moments of absolute flabbergasted horror about it. I imagine everyone does, some more than others. But something snaps me out of it and I rationalise that we’re moving slowly in the right direction and life will be better at some point.

I read widely and take in a range of news sources; some people don’t.

I think people deny it because either they’re scared or because then they’d actually have to take responsibility for what they’re doing. In terms of the hospitals of course some areas will be more quiet when they cancelled so many non urgent appointments (rightly or wrongly). I also noticed during the first lockdown when we had to go to a&e that with people not able to bring anyone else in it appeared much quieter; there was probably the same number of actual patients but without all the extra people it gave the impression of it being much quieter

Anyone can post anything on the internet. Some can even make up very plausible stories when bored in lockdown. Quiet corridors and waiting rooms are because you dont want people becoming infected so see as many as possible via online consultation, I can believe that. Some technicians unable to be redeployed elsewhere - possible if their skills are very specialised. But empty wards (plural) - nope, story fail.

You may get an empty ward because in some hospitals 10% of staff have covid and if you cant staff a ward there is no point in having people in it. You may also get an empty ward because it's being converted into yet another covid ward. But the OP claims to have been wandering around and not noticed any with patients in and in no part of the country is that actually happening.

What is really happening in hospitals across the country is that wards that were used for non covid work have to be used for covid patients. A covid patient is far sicker than many of the people who would be in hospital normally. Their care takes more staff, more equipment, a lot more resources. So that part of the hospital is under intense pressure It sucks in staff from anywhere it can. Those staff are inexperienced in what they are doing, they have to learn. There is therefore a limit to how many you can take in at once.

Because you have very sick people who need a lot of equipment you need to use the theatres as covid wards. So your surgeons cant operate and they are busy learning to manage ICU patients safely, trying to condense years of training into days. You keep some theatres and beds clear for emergency surgery as long as you can.

Covid shows up distinct lung damage patterns on x-ray but something like 18% of tests are false negatives. So a doctor may be quite certain you have covid even if you have tested negative. If it looks like a duck and sounds like a duck (medic friends tell me a covid cough is different) you dont write goose on the death certificate - but,but, but they had a negative test didnt they.

Barrington declaration - comprehensively rubbished elsewhere. But those signing it have frequently made statements like we already have herd immunity and there wont be a second wave and people still want to believe them. Muppets!

Death figures published daily only those within 28 days so manipulated downwards.

What you are missing is - government corruption, handing contracts to their mates

government prioritising the economy so deliberately doing things that increase mortality like eat out to spread the virus or sending kids back to school to spread the virus. Using excuses to conceal deliberately increasing spread.

You are missing a government that wishes the NHS to be overwhelmed and ignores advice that might have prevented that

You are missing a government that is probably delaying vaccine distribution, that there are many people ready and willing to vaccinate but not receiving the vaccine.

You are missing that those who cannot cope with reality will deny it even on their death bed www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/89796

I've seen stuff on social media saying life insurance doesn't payout for covid.

I work for a medium sized insurer & we've paid over 2,000 claims where covid was on the death certificate.

People say all sorts of things!

I've been in and out of hospital all year with a serious condition. The hospital has been empty every time. Usually just me and one other patient in the waiting room. Nobody in the corridors, nobody in the wards. Just nurses and doctors chatting. I'm not blaming them, but at least in my part of the country, this is a true observation so it must be the same in other areas.

It's been pretty well known all year long that people are putting off going to hospital for other things, and surely you realise that they don't put covid wards in amongst others?

It's a known coping strategy and it happens during every time of great chaos. It's far easier to cope with the idea that this is part of a big, albeit evil, plan and somebody is in control of all of this than it is to accept the sheer chaos and the fact we have no idea really how this will pan out.

That said governments lie to their people. The U.K. government has a proven history of lying; I've known this since Hillsborough. Boris Johnson is a known liar who has lost jobs for lying. You'd be exceptionally naive to believe anything that comes out of his mouth, so I do think people should question the party's line, read from a wide range of news outlets, follow the independent sage briefings and understand that scientists aren't all in agreement with the best way to deal with covid, so there isn't one right answer in terms of how the UK should've approached this.

Personally I have no belief in the new world order/bill gates microchip schools of thought but I despise people who are snotty or patronising with people who believe in them. I do believe that Boris Johnson et al have capitalised on the pandemic and used it as a good opportunity to make some of their rich friends even richer. And by making that their main priority, combined with gaslighting the nation, u-turning frequently and giving hugely conflicting advice (stay home; but eat out. Schools are closed but the key worker list is massive. Masks aren't effective; wear a mask) they've a) created a truth vacuum where people know they're not being told everything and turn to you-tube to fill in the gaps. B) created a situation where neighbours are now judgemental and suspicious of each other - they're a key worker at least their kids are still getting taught/they've been furloughed lucky them getting to keep their kids safely at home every day.

I say this on every post but I think history will judge our PM very poorly in his handling of this.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I do believe there is a major issue with how coronavirus deaths are counted.

As someone above has said, there could be co-morbidity factors so coronavirus isn't really the reason they died, but potentially something they caught in hospital with their existing condition.

I believe there should be much more focus on excess deaths against average as that's a much truer indication of how serious this is.

I don't disagree that many hospitals appear to be on the brink of being over capacity, but this also happens in non covid years so it would be good to see how this compares to normal years versus just focusing on the current situation.

The only point on your list that they could try and argue is this one:

3. Death certificates are being filled in with Covid to inflate the figures.

Figures aren't being inflated on purpose. But they do include people who haven't died OF Covid. Testing positive for coronavirus was one of the factors, but not always the main one.

My friend's mum had dementia for over 3 years, and was admitted to hospital with renal failure in December. She was in a very bad shape but making progress, tested positive end of Dec on a routine hospital test. As a result, she was placed on a Covid ward where there is a shortage of staff and resources are limited. No symptoms except a fever that she'd been having on and off for a few weeks. No visitors and stretched to the limit doctors and nurses meant no one stayed with her for two hours which is how long it took her to eat a meal properly. No one encouraged her to get out of bed and take a few steps. She wasn't seeing anyone, was very scared and anxious and lonely. She died after one week on the Covid ward, her death certificate will mention coronavirus, so she'll be one of the official numbers. However she never got a respiratory infection or any other Covid symptom.

She didn't die of coronavirus, she died as a result of getting a positive test and her care being drastically reduced. If she hadn't been on a Covid ward, she would've died in the next 6-12 months anyway, she was 91 so not a young person. But that's why some think the numbers are 'inflated', because they include those people who died as a result of hospitals and services being overwhelmed and once they get transferred to a Covid ward, their chances of survival go down quickly. The care they need to live for a few months longer is drastically reduced and many don't survive that.

PS I do agree with those deaths being included in the official numbers. It gives us the full picture of how the pandemic affects basic healthcare services, and how overwhelmed some hospitals are. My friend's mum would have died in the next year, but many other patients wouldn't have. It's fair we count them as Covid deaths. They happened to be in hospital in the middle of a pandemic, which clearly reduced their life expectancy and saw them going before their time.

I’m no conspiracy theorist but I can see the argument for some of it.

For example, if the vulnerable and their carers truly shielded then yes the rest of the working age population could go back to near normal. In fact the plan is we do when the vulnerable and their carers are vaccinated.

I also understand long Covid there is a thought process by many doctors that an element of it is pschosomatic. So a lot of work to be done there.

In addition, from the last wave, I can’t recall the exact numbers, but about a third of deaths would have occurred any way. Ie someone with end stage terminal cancer, where Covid was listed on the death certificate was counted.

The fact is most adults of working age without underlying health conditions, this is a relatively benign virus for, otherwise we would not be planning for releasing restrictions when vaccinations of the vulnerable have been completed. We would need to wait till the whole population was vaccinated.

The whole made up thing, or inflated hospital numbers are bullocks clearly. But I can’t say I don’t see the argument for the above points or put them in the same bracket.

Excess deaths since covid began - circa 90k, deaths with covid dx within 28 days of death - 80k.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to conclude that covid might be to blame here.

@ChristmasSexyTime

He said that conspiracy theorists are deliberately taking photos of empty corridors to make it look as if the hospital was empty

I take your point but I know firsthand that so many things have been cancelled. I've had two different tests cancelled with no idea when they'll be rescheduled. And the last blood technician to take my bloods said he's bored out of his wits, and that he's doing less than 10% per day of what their capacity is.

This isn't all hospitals clearly, but in mine, yes, the wards are empty and there's not much going on. I've walked past the wards and there's nobody in them. I'm not a conspiracy theorist. Just somebody with kidney disease who has seen this with my own eyes. From what I've seen, I'm lucky to have seen my consultant a few times over the past twelve months.

I’m sorry but this is the type of anecdote that allows this misinformation and conjecture to flourish. You and your opinion are a perfect example of why we have this problem

I cannot even begin to muster the will to explain why clinical care is being cancelled again. But firstly without available critical care and ICU capacity the hospitals need to reduce elective operations. By now they can’t do them at all. As more and more capacity is taken up by seriously ill people who need Acute care, more and more staff are needed to to do this work. They have to come from somewhere and that’s other departments who get gradually stepped down. By now calls to action go way beyond any hospital itself.

These stepped down departments are led by very articulate and assertive consultants. Redeployment won’t happen unless it absolutely needs to. These people are not afraid of speaking out.

Despite it being explained to why wards you are allowed in are empty you persist with your interpretation. It’s obviously an infection control measure. But because you don’t understand and have formed an opinion you won’t change your mind. Or accept that you aren’t really well informed enough to process what you see.

Experts and hospital leaders explain this. But you won’t listen. Like a lot of people. Unfortunately they are too busy sorting out the shitshow we have now to keep explaining it. That leaves a void for people like you and the rent a quote experts to fill it. Ever wonder why these people aren’t as busy as the rest of the people staffing wards and struggling to come with complex solutions.

I don’t have clue about what going on in many parts of life, services, business and industries. I don’t know why things are the way they are. I know there’s probably a good reason most of the time. And that there isn’t any easy solution to problem that they are ignoring for the sake of it. Or that I, in my ignorance, can solve.

I don't believe covid is a fabricated illness or that this is a "plandemic" or whatever but there are a number of uncomfortable truths/unknowns which the government is trying to play down. (I should add that I used to be a research scientist at an Oxbridge university before someone comes and tells me I'm "thick as shit" as happened in a previous thread.)

For example:

• A lot of vulnerable people are still catching covid in hospital, in their care home or from their carers. Many, many hospital staff are off work because of testing positive and have therefore probably been vectors for transmission. This isn't being as widely reported as it should be as it's embarrassing for the govt and NHS.

• The PCR tests are not infallible. Anecdotally I know people who have had false positives and false negatives. There's little information about what the false positive/negative rates are which is making people suspicious.

• We also have little information as to whether a positive PCR test actually results in being infectious. A lot of people (including experts, not just online nutters!) are saying that a very weak positive PCR test means you're highly unlikely to be able to pass the disease on.

• As far as I can tell there's been no clear explanation from the govt as to why cases were so low in the summer and so high now which leads to everyone making up their own theories ("it's the schools", "it's seasonal", "it's because people are breaking the rules more now")

• Many people (including me) are suspicious about the government touting the vaccine as a silver bullet. I'm not anti-vax and will (of course) want all of my family members to get vaccinated but I think there's a lot of naivety around the vaccine bringing an end to all of this.

These are just a few examples of things that I think we could all do with more information and transparency around to allay some people's suspicions.

@ChristmasSexyTime

Really, just two patients in the entire hospital? Nobody at all on any of the wards? 🙄

Yeah, genuinely. Nobody in paediatrics (ward in darkness), nobody waiting in the waiting room outside radiology, nobody except me in the nephrology department. Nobody waiting for bloods.

Without photographic evidence, I can't prove this to you but it's the truth. There's nothing happening there. It's a rural hospital but it serves a large geographic region.

Oh for goodness sake! I’m pleased that that is how your hospital appeared because it means they are taking the risk of transmitting Covid 19 very seriously. Did you really expect to wait in a waiting area with dozens of other vulnerable patients? In my local hospital you have to now phone in advance for a blood test because they don’t want the 50 people all turning up on a Monday morning, an hour before opening, as they did before the pandemic.

@ChristmasSexyTime The part of the hospital you were in was quiet. My friend is a cancer nurse, she normally runs very busy clinics, but they were reduced over the summer to prevent virus spread and are now paused because she and her colleagues are working on the Covid wards as they're so short-staffed. There are only two non-Covid wards in the whole hospital.

You might think it's quiet, but they're not going to let you anywhere near the Covid area, are they.

'The hospital has been empty every time. Usually just me and one other patient in the waiting room. Nobody in the corridors, nobody in the wards. Just nurses and doctors chatting.'

It's because they're all rammed in covid and critical care wards! Granted I imagine orthopaedic, surgery and gynae will be fairly quiet as all elective stuff cancelled and staff redeployed.

It is astonishing that some people really think a quiet corridor or waiting room represents anything. The urgency in Simon Stevens and Chris Whitty's voices at recent press conferences has been alarming. They have no reason to exaggerate anything, the grim hospitalisation numbers speak for themselves.

@TheBlessedCheesemaker

Excess deaths since covid began - circa 90k, deaths with covid dx within 28 days of death - 80k.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to conclude that covid might be to blame here.

That’s total deaths from Covid. Not excess deaths. The Uk death rate is published here for 2020.

www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/death-rate

@EileenGC

A poster up thread included a snapshot from a BBC article showing “3 ways to report covid”. It’s within this article here:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

@Bluntness100
For example, if the vulnerable and their carers truly shielded then yes the rest of the working age population could go back to near normal

You could argue this is already happening and is the reason why 90% of people currently in intensive care in London were previously working with many patients being under 60.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-nhs-at-breaking-point-and-public-not-listening-to-lockdown-warns-top-doctor-12183248

I also understand long Covid there is a thought process by many doctors that an element of it is pschosomatic. So a lot of work to be done there

This sentence doesn’t even make sense. Do you have any links to doctors claiming this is a psychosomatic condition?

www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4470

“Young, low risk patients with ongoing symptoms of covid-19 had signs of damage to multiple organs four months after initially being infected, a preprint study has suggested.1

Initial data from 201 patients suggest that almost 70% had impairments in one or more organs four months after their initial symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The results emerged as the NHS announced plans to establish a network of more than 40 long covid specialist clinics across England this month to help patients with long term symptoms of infection”

We were all initially told that this was something that only affected the elderly. Sadly, lots of people think that group is dispensable.
We now know that it affects a much wider demographic but for some reason that message just hasn’t go through and lots of people still believe it won’t affect them because they’re not old.