R number hits 3 in Ireland

[starfro]

This pattern has been repeated in a number of European countries that had relatively few infections in the first wave (Czech Rep/Poland etc). However, they didn't have to deal with the new variant.

In Ireland the combination of a lack of immunity, seasonality and the new variant has led to astonishingly high R. It will lead to serious problems for Irish health services.

Back in March Patrick Vallance said that if you suppress the first wave too much then you get a massive second wave (this is basic epidemiology). Suppression was always a gamble, because if it doesn't work (for example because of a mutation), then you end up with a tragically high 2nd wave that overwhelms health services.

Vaccination has probably come too late for many places in Europe.

Worrying but also interesting point on suppressing first wave too much.

See what Patrick Vallance says at 3:54.

Interesting. Just last week, they were sending up medics and ambulances to help us here in NI were our health services are completely overwhelmed. Very scary to think how quickly it has changed down there. They really did lockdown hard and fast in March, much stricter than up here in NI.

Strict lockdown would have worked had a vaccination appeared in late summer.

Long term strategy was always key, and there are potential pitfalls to both the harsh lockdown and the Swedish style strategies.

A successful vaccine manufactured, approved, delivered and administered (and still effective by that point) in time was always a very high stakes gamble.

Hopefully we have enough herd immunity from previous infection to escape the worst.

Op I can’t listen atm but he speaks well on it

Do you think the timing was pretty much right? As well as severity

In U.K. that is

@MarshaBradyo

Op I can’t listen atm but he speaks well on it

Do you think the timing was pretty much right? As well as severity

Had the new variant not appeared, I think that semi-lockdown Tier 3 restrictions would have been enough this winter. Immunity levels aren't massive or near the HIT, but enough to flatten the curve quite a lot.

Seasonality is a big factor, and had everything opened up to normal in May, you might have been able to keep a higher case number allowing slow immunity build up, but probably not a huge amount extra.

Back then it was always a gamble whichever way you went. I am in contact with a senior NHS Virologist and their opinion was always that this would eventually sweep through the country, no matter what you did. "Flatten the curve" was always about not overwhelming the NHS, not saving lives.

The new variant has changed everything massively. That was impossible to predict for any policy maker.

Yes. The speed at which it happened has really taken us by surprise. It kicked off after three weeks of easing restrictions.

Yes I agree with all that esp the reason for why we do it, that what we had was enough for old variant and that new variant is hugely impacting us now.

Very sorry to hear this. This is just such an awful time for so many countries.

Why was the new variant impossible to predict? Surely that's what viruses do...mutate? Policy should have considered this possibility, and possibility of more variants.

The Republic of Ireland had a Christmas of sorts this year. They were amazed that a large swathe of the South East of England weren't allowed to see anyone at all over Christmas. So the R number reflects the socialisation that happened before the latest lockdown came into effect.
Conversely there are NO schools open at the moment in Ireland so that's unlikely to be affecting the numbers. Unlike the UK which has the children of key workers and vulnerable children at school, all learning is online which as we know doesn't work so well for younger and special needs children.
Ireland also has the advantage of lower population density.
So it's possible that once the Christmas blip has passed in Ireland, the numbers are going to trend down faster than in the UK.

Christmas mixing is a valid hypothesis. However, there have been studies in the past that show flu actually drops at Christmas, because kids are taken out of school, so it's not certain.

The acceleration also started in mid December.

I'd suspect that it does play some role, but it is the new variant that plays the greater one. Possibly both, with Irish people living in England taking the new variant home with them for Christmas?

Maybe, starfro. My brother came home from England and quarantined for two weeks, but others came home closer to Christmas.

The numbers of Irish in the South East - where the variant was most prevalent over Xmas - who went back to Ireland over Christmas was very low. I had to travel for an emergency and it was very difficult to buy flights - one a day from Stansted and of course we were subject to a lockdown already by then so shouldn't have been travelling except for emergencies.
More likely the Kent mutation was in Ireland for months but wasn't being sequenced - same as in France and other nearby countries.

Vaccination has probably come too late for many places in Europe

It hasn't come too late for places, but it will be too late for some people, obviously.

Yikes

We’ve gone from having one of the lowest R earrings in Europe to one of the highest - having as many cases in the last month as wet has in total from March to October 😔
Even with restrictions in place over 50 thousand people flew into Ireland in December and the three cases of the South African variant have been confirmed as linked to incoming travel - so who is to blame? We’re the Irish public are being begged to for the rules and limit our contacts, not visit other household etc and for the most part people have complied!
The government ignored NPHET advice for a stricter lockdown back in October, then changed its mind two weeks later and said they were taking ‘some’ of Nphet’s advice and brought in partial restrictions and now here we are - at the bottom of a very big pile of poop with one of the worst R rates almost 3 - too little too late by a government that should have listened to their health advisors and scientists instead of trying to play both sides of the coin so to speak!

extra.ie/2021/01/09/news/irish-news/christmas-travel-ireland-covid-19-figures

we the Irish public
Sorry for the typos x

"The new variant has changed everything massively. That was impossible to predict for any policy maker."

Was it? Not a virologist, so genuinely don't know! but my understanding was that mutation of viruses is very common, and one of the possible outcomes would be a more transmissible version. So no they could not have known whether, or when, that would happen, but wouldn't they have known it was a possibility?

Sage were advising in March that suppression would mean that it would revive once lockdown was lifted (can't remember exact words, but to that effect). In fact I thought that one of their key concerns was that it would return in winter when hospitals were already very busy.

Unlike the UK which has the children of key workers and vulnerable children at school, all learning is online which as we know doesn't work so well for younger and special needs children.

Very true but as an Irish teacher I'm so glad we didn't follow the UKs lead on this. Reading some of the MN threads about numbers in schools is fascinating, some places are rammed and as always their teachers seem under huge pressure.

Hopefully it helps to bring down our numbers quickly.

Interesting. That spike is insane.

I am off work atm and so glad, have to go back on the 19th and I'm so hoping the worst is over by then. Getting scared again.

It was Christmas.

Ireland had a lockdown from. October to bring the numbers down low before the Christmas. The aim of the lockdown was to bring the covid cases down to double digits. Unfortunately the covid cases did not come down low enough.

Ireland reopened or eased restrictions on on non essential shopping from the 1st of December. A week later, restaurants and gastro pubs were allowed open. The reopening started from a starting point of about 200 cases a day. Many people started mixing again. My partner worked in a bar and he was flat out busy until Christmas eve and a new lockdown was beginning to start. The pubs were shut on Christmas eve. He was flat out busy. Ireland had rising cases by Christmas week and it was enough to scare anyone into compliance and staying at home. Parts of the population refused to settle down. The virus exploded over Christmas. A whole entire mixture of reasons.

-Many people mixing over Christmas and many perhaps in the incubation phase of the virus
-The government refused to make people accountable for their actions and there was no heavy penalties or fines for people. Many people broke isolation guidelines.

• Open borders - there was no quarantine at the borders and people were free to come in and do as they please
• Then there is the new variant of the virus.

A whole entire combination of every kind of shit sees Ireland in the way it is.

Covid longer incubation
And few symptoms in kids
So stopping school 18th plus 4d some have it by 22nd. And already infectious from 20th so infectious people 20/22nd -1st jan and
1-3d for flu would move quicker.
Kids and young adults generally meeting the most people probably doesnt help. Living in families with other 3 to infect.