R number hits 3 in Ireland

[starfro]

This pattern has been repeated in a number of European countries that had relatively few infections in the first wave (Czech Rep/Poland etc). However, they didn't have to deal with the new variant.

In Ireland the combination of a lack of immunity, seasonality and the new variant has led to astonishingly high R. It will lead to serious problems for Irish health services.

Back in March Patrick Vallance said that if you suppress the first wave too much then you get a massive second wave (this is basic epidemiology). Suppression was always a gamble, because if it doesn't work (for example because of a mutation), then you end up with a tragically high 2nd wave that overwhelms health services.

Vaccination has probably come too late for many places in Europe.

Definitely. Everything's been shut for weeks.

The only time people were mixing was on Christmas day.
I've been off and I've been sitting in my own house with no visitors since st stephen's day. Even my teens who were like horses champing at the bit for the first lockdown have slumped in to a lethargy that is depressing to witness have not been out and have not met up with any friends. Phones pinging of course..

Back to op, interesting to reread this extract from the Guardian, quoting Vallance on Fri 13 March 20:

' “If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he said. The government is concerned that if not enough people catch the virus now, it will re-emerge in the winter, when the NHS is already overstretched.'

@suggestionsplease1

Why was the new variant impossible to predict? Surely that's what viruses do...mutate? Policy should have considered this possibility, and possibility of more variants.

But Johnson doesnt like inconvenient details like that, he just gaslights them away...poof!

@Aixenprovence

Back to op, interesting to reread this extract from the Guardian, quoting Vallance on Fri 13 March 20:

' “If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he said. The government is concerned that if not enough people catch the virus now, it will re-emerge in the winter, when the NHS is already overstretched.'

Yeah, it was a very good prediction from Vallance!

Immunity is now a dirty word, and I think it's political. You'll see in the press conferences that they use a different phrase to replace the word "immunity". However it forms the basis of the epidemiological equations that they all use.

They do have a genuine concern that immunity is lower than thought, and this could lead to massive massive death numbers.

Suppresion, if that is possible, is preferable now that a vaccine is available. Lockdown may not be enough with the new variant however.

I've always thought the Swedish handled it well given that 40% of their population lives alone. I know we are a bit more crammed in.

I think another post has it but the strict lockdown October to 1 December kept numbers manageable, but then opening back up after that led to more mixing than before.

My DH was over in October and September to help care for his mum (urgent crisis, FIL in hospital with suspected heart attack in September and then again October, MIL has Alzheimer's in rapid deterioration) and in October the Gardai were on county borders checking where folk were going and why. They were taking it really seriously then.

My MIL is in a nursing home. She has seen 1 visitor 3 times since she went in at the start of October. They had 2 cases of Covid in residents a fortnight ago, last Tuesday it was 5 and the next day it was 7. Large numbers of staff are off.

Back into lockdown now.

@WiseOwlRelaxing

I've always thought the Swedish handled it well given that 40% of their population lives alone. I know we are a bit more crammed in.

They had a huge spike for second wave though. Friends in Sweden were concerned the more relaxed/social responsibility approach wasn t enough in spring last year.

The Swedish strategy was to allow reasonable spread of virus amongst the non-elderly population to mean the Winter 2nd wave wouldn't be massive and overwhelm health services.

It looks like it's worked fairly well. Had they been able to protect care home residents it would have been considered a real success.

Critics of Sweden said that their approach would result in many more deaths/population than other major European country
ies that locked down, and clearly this wasn't the case.

As far as I know the Swedish figures aren't favourable in comparison to similar countries, so in comparison to other Scandinavian countries.

If we had not hot this mutant strain I think the lockdown on tier 5 was bringing rates down with schools still open. The mutant strain just seems twice as likely to be spread than the original strain. I very worried about SA stain as it may be immune to new vaccines.