About 1 in 50 have covid right now in England.

[fastwigglylines]

That feels like a hell of a lot.

According to ONS estimates based on random sampling, current rates are around, 1 in 50 for the country but for indivudual areas:

One in 30 for London
One in 45 for south-east England, eastern England and north-west England
One in 50 for the East Midlands
One in 60 for north-east England
One in 65 for the West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber
One in 135 for south-west England

These figures were for between Christmas and New year I think, so they may be higher now.

That's it I'm going nowhere! (I'm in a higher risk group).

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55550906

I found that 1/50 quote scary. Counting on my head how many people I know locally and how many have it.. .

Are people getting covid more than once?

Very worrying figures, I only know one person with it!

I know a family with it, another two families who've just got over it over Christmas and another waiting for testing.

Well a lot of them must be getting it fairly mildly or the death rate would be much higher, and hopefully 🤞🏻 it is helping herd immunity to some extent, although I am aware the science of that is in doubt.

I don’t believe it is a figure to panic over, though, (and I don’t say that lightly because I’m nervous, clinically vulnerable and not ready to leave my children yet.)

The main thing it demonstrates is the risk to our NHS. We just have to be brave and pull together.

I saw those and to me that’s not scary, in fact in makes things a little illogical. If there are no real cases of getting Covid twice, and 1 in 50 have it, and we clearly don’t have 1 in 50 in the hospitals, so mostly asymptomatic...

Doesn’t that mean we are hurtling towards herd immunity naturally without the vaccine???

Or am I missing something...

Well a lot of them must be getting it fairly mildly or the death rate would be much higher. That's a good point. As the figure is based on random sampling, loads may not even have known they had it.

I’m in London. 1 in 30 is mad, given the amount of people I see in the supermarket! That’s 1 per school class on average

Or am I missing something...

We don't yet know how long imunity lasts for after you recover from covid.

There are some reported cases of individuals. -including medics - apparently contracting it more than once @Curtainsarefab but I’m not sure the testing was so reliable early on and it isn’t so very many cases so, on balance, I share your interpretation. Unless you assume that immunity from one strain isn’t immunity from the other strains (like flu), but you can argue backwards and forwards with yourself like this all week.

That's it I'm going nowhere! (I'm in a higher risk group).

That’s been me for ten months now. WFH, shopping online or DH doing it etc, but I have two hospital appointments this month for my underlying condition and I’m going.

I saw reports they were estimating 6 months immunity which takes us out of the shit a bit though. It would be illogical it wouldn’t give some immunity or we would know of many many repeat cases by now. Much like any other virus it will either nest in the system (chicken pox, herpes etc) or you can get it again when immunity wears off (flu, scarlet fever).

Is that figure 1 in 50 has or has had Covid, or is it 1 in 50 infected right now and not including those who have had Covid previously?

That’s my very scientific interpretation anyway 😂 Not that I’m going anywhere to test my hypothesis!!

But the numbers calmed not scared me I guess I’m saying.

I thought it was that proportion infectedright now @MediterraneanSea

What did you understand it to be @fastwigglylines ?

That would mean 1 or maybe 2 people in my building have it? Doesn't seem so bad given how angry the gov map looks for London.

There's about 20 flats, assuming 2 people per flat (mostly couples or singles with the odd small child). Most flats share a hallway but not all.

I missed that bit , that seems a lot especially if thats now as if you add all those that have had as well , that would mean a lot of population and I didn't think we were near that yet

NW here and currently self isolating with Covid. I can believe those figures. Many locals (over 60s, mostly male) have died in recent weeks. Children are infected. My own 8 week old has been quite poorly with it as well as older DC. Make no mistake children ARE getting ill.

Much like any other virus it will either nest in the system (chicken pox, herpes etc) or you can get it again when immunity wears off (flu, scarlet fever).

I‘m nobody’s idea of a virologist, but I somehow had the idea that it is likely the second type of virus you mention (flu, scarlet fever) and that if it follows the evolution playbook it will “want” to be less lethal but more transmissible.

That that is Darwinian “success”. So that should work in humanity’s favour as long as there isn’t some horrible mutant strain.

Also that the problem with the current Kent and South Africa variant strains is that their increased transmission rate is showing as a higher R number and putting a strain on medical services, NOT that is intrinsically more lethal. So that would fit with this “1 in 50” figure, wouldn’t it?

Have I got that right? I’m confusing myself.

Wow! But yes I'm sure Bozza was right that schools are safe. Especially the ones with over a 1000 or 2000 kids in them. It's only the unions making a fuss about nothing!

I really don’t want long codv my friend has and she is 27 fit slim and perfect health. She can’t even walk up her stairs and has to sleep in living room

Schools are safe if empty I believe that is what borris is saying now

My friend is a ta in secondary school

@Curtainsarefab multiple colleagues within the nhs have had it twice. One twice within 3 months. It happens

What I don’t understand, or rather I do understand I just can’t get my head around is our head sent a letter out at the weekend saying for our area 2 in 200,000 have the virus.... how can people be saying that then also saying 1 in 50 have it?! I get it varies across the UK but that’s a pretty big difference

Yes you can get it twice. Many stories emerging of that now. We are not even seeing the deaths related to Christmas. In a couple of weeks it's going to be equivalent to about 6 jumbo jets crashing every day!

That’s not imagery that will help the anxious @lovelemoncurd but there’s a relish to the way you say it that suggests you know that.