About 1 in 50 have covid right now in England.

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That feels like a hell of a lot.

According to ONS estimates based on random sampling, current rates are around, 1 in 50 for the country but for indivudual areas:

One in 30 for London
One in 45 for south-east England, eastern England and north-west England
One in 50 for the East Midlands
One in 60 for north-east England
One in 65 for the West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber
One in 135 for south-west England

These figures were for between Christmas and New year I think, so they may be higher now.

That's it I'm going nowhere! (I'm in a higher risk group).

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55550906

@RickiTarr I didn't realise I was on a thread about anxiety. I was answering questions poised earlier as others have done. I made that analogy because my DH and I also made it today. Perhaps it will make people adhere to the rules a little better! If you are anxious stay off social media.

I’m holding my own, thanks. There are some very anxious people on MN at the moment, though, and people with clinical MH issues, who are finding this all very hard indeed. You must have seen them. They gather here to vent and chat and I don’t think those kinds of posts help anyone much, do they?

I don't think sugar coating the situation has helped anyone either personally. I think it has got us all into a worse situation. The news doesn't sugar coat it either it shows people in ICU. This isn't the thread to tackle mental health issues. People have a choice not to read or to watch. You can't dumb down everyone's opinion by saying it may upset some people!

As a pedestrian, I definitely have noticed in the last couple of days that, as I walk along the pavement, people have increased their distancing as we pass, in fact, I am worried about their road safety.

Is that figure 1 in 50 has or has had Covid, or is it 1 in 50 infected right now and not including those who have had Covid previously?

It is for the amount of people who had it during one week, the "week ending 2nd of January"

It was probably even higher in some weeks last March and April but still a lot yes.

Worth thinking about for those who fancy a trip to their local supermarket to browse for non essentials

I didn't think it was a scary figure... Shows how many must not have symtoms... And although heard immunity may be a while off we should defnitely start to see some effects over the next month or so of less transmission as so many have had or have got It. Mixed with lockdown I would guess in febuary and March case numbers will come Down pretty sharpish just in time for the better weather in spring.

In all this time I have only known of one person I know to test positive - my sister who was a sister on a covid ward, so basically inevitable. I have a big family and social group so it feels like I’m totally out of the loop with how rampant it is.

@Curtainsarefab

I saw those and to me that’s not scary, in fact in makes things a little illogical. If there are no real cases of getting Covid twice, and 1 in 50 have it, and we clearly don’t have 1 in 50 in the hospitals, so mostly asymptomatic...

Doesn’t that mean we are hurtling towards herd immunity naturally without the vaccine???

Or am I missing something...

^^ me too by the time the jab gets to most of us, we will have had covid already.? Yes, I know you can get it again but if you had zero symptoms the first time

@lovelemoncurd

Yes you can get it twice. Many stories emerging of that now. We are not even seeing the deaths related to Christmas. In a couple of weeks it's going to be equivalent to about 6 jumbo jets crashing every day!

Presumably the 1 in 50 is just those tested as well so the actual number including the asymptomatic is likely to be much higher. At my son's school in South London over half the teaching staff had it before Christmas and my son infected us although he was asymptomatic. Thankfully though it was very mild and now 2 weeks on we are both fully recovered.

Last week there were 4,700 deaths, but those were from people infected about 4 weeks ago, when the rate was a lot lower.

It looks to me that we will move up to around 10,000 deaths per week (if we cope) and stabilise there.

If we get the vaccine rollout right, which given how little we have got right so far, cannot be counted on, we may end up with circa 100-150k deaths, based on 20% off of the country having been infected. This tallies with the latest Imperial College Estimate of 1-1.5% IFR, not the 0.2% of flu (or even close).

The estimate of asymptomatic cases is about 20%, although many more will be asymptomatic at testing but develop symptoms later. Most ‘mild’ cases I have known have been bed ridden for 7-14 days and have described it as ‘not to be recommended’.

It is a nasty illness! It is not smallpox but it is not ‘the flu’, either. If we can all do our bit for 2-3 months, though, things should start to look a lot brighter.

I'm guessing the same amount of people are positive now as were last March. But people don't seem to be taking this lockdown as seriously.

My family are part of this survey. After the first month (which was September, for us) somebody visits us monthly to do a nose/throat swab (PCR) and a blood test for antibodies.

This is to pick up people who might have it without realising it, as well as seeing whether we have had it in the intervening month.

I imagine these "high figures" aren't just a one-off (because they do sometimes have a bit of a 'blip'), but it will be interesting to see what they observe next week.

I have 9 in my extended family that have Covid and know of about 20 more people locally that have tested positive including kids this past week. Live in a small town , only really heard of a few people that have had it before now. It seams rife in my area .

I think the saddest thing is all the people trying to convey nice themselves 1 in 50 isn't that bad.

1 in 50 is absolutely dreadful, and a shocking failure of the state.

The mutation may not have even happened if our government had been more mindful - we were in a fairly decent position in summer, a little less gung ho and our path could have been better.

I understand why people want to swallow the line it was the nasty mutation, the PM couldn't help it - but you're kidding yourselves.

Typo: convey nice = convince

The infections were much higher back in Marcha and April. Probably about 1 in 20, or even 1 in 15. Estimated

This the estimate

..

Yes, and to get to here knowing everything we learnt through the first wave shows how badly we've been let down.

Test and trace? Is that ever mentioned now by the PM? No, because it has totally failed.

Test and trace? Is that ever mentioned now by the PM? No, because it has totally failed.

It hasn't failed and even if it partyl did, it's because people did not involve themselves with it.

Same with covid app, hardly anyone I know bothered downloading it, because they "couldn't be arsed". I know one person who tested positive and deleted the app the same day because "I don't need it anymore"