Things go wrong in other countries, too

[avenueq]

I don't think it's helpful how irate people get about the UK government's failings. Yes there are plenty but this is a whole new situation and there are plenty of other countries making mistakes.
Before you ask - I'm not from the UK, but that means I have insight what happens elsewhere,
So to start -
The Eu has been slow in vaccine acquisition

In Austria, vaccinations could not start yet in some areas as not enogh needles (!) had been ordered

Countries with the most severe lockdown did not necessarily solve the Problem (Spain)

Countries who had supposedly excellent track and trace also had a second wave (Germany)

Anyone got other examples?

Civil war in dysfunctional banana republic of merica - live history in the making!

Expect the unexpected in formerly respectable USA.

Obviously no Covid awareness! Trumpanzee needs more bleach injections!

How cave man can Trump go? Makes Boris et al Angelic! Flabbergasted!!

@IcedPurple

Yes Thailand that well known Confucian culture

Thailand isn't one of the countries usually mentioned as having dealt exceptionally well with the pandemic, so is irrelevant here.

Asia is not China, what an ignorant comment.

What's ignorant is to be unaware of the massive influence Chinese culture - including Confucianism - has had on the societies of East Asia over the centuries.

Yes it is.

www.marketwatch.com/story/who-head-has-singled-out-one-developing-country-for-its-success-in-managing-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-11-13

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/16/thailand-cambodia-covid-19-cases-deaths-low?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

China was a closed society until late 19th C (as I understand it) which was why we started selling them Opium - they didn't want to trade, they didn't want our stuff. We foisted Opium on them forcing a trade.
Then in the 20th C
The Great Leap Forward was a five-year plan of forced agricultural collectivization and rural industrialization that was instituted by the Chinese Communist Party in 1958, which resulted in a sharp contraction in the Chinese economy and between 30 to 55 million deaths by starvation, execution, torture, forced labor, and suicide out of desperation. It was the largest single, non-wartime campaign of mass killing in human history I would think they were too busy to be influencing foreign countries.
Now Chinese investment is having global influence, particularly in Africa (mining etc).

@IcedPurple

Yes Thailand that well known Confucian culture

Thailand isn't one of the countries usually mentioned as having dealt exceptionally well with the pandemic, so is irrelevant here.

Asia is not China, what an ignorant comment.

What's ignorant is to be unaware of the massive influence Chinese culture - including Confucianism - has had on the societies of East Asia over the centuries.

Thailand has very basic medical care, but so far has had a total of 67 deaths since the virus entered its territory in Jan 2020. No doubt there have been more deaths, but the cemeteries and morgues are not filled up. Thais are notoriously good on social media, so news travels very fast.

There is an alert in Thailand caused by a mutated strain arising from Myanmar, but it is obvious that the UK should be compared with SE Asian countries in order to gain knowledge. Track and trace is carried out at a very local level. Apartment blocks have been sealed off and a lady has mentioned in an interview that she was interrogated all day by track and trace (she tested positive and was asymptomatic).

69 million people living in Thailand, why so few deaths?
Scientists know the virus is killed by UV and humidity, that certain populations have greater T cell immunity to a range of coronaviruses and that vitamin D3 is a key modulator of the human immune system.

Most Thais do not drive and eat fish 2/3 times daily. They love eating outside and expose themselves UV light every day. The UK will have no natural UV to assimilate vitamin D3 until April 2021 and there is estimated to be 80% vitamin D3 deficiency. Thais will have much, much smaller levels of deficiency. Scientists now know that much higher serum D3 levels (than recommended as adequate by NHS) are required to avoid severe covid 19 outcomes.

The UK needs to look outwardly not inwardly.

The Myanmar strain is the earlier European one. Asia locked down fairly well and were insulated from the more infectious European strain; rest of the world already have G614, in fact we're looking back at it wishing that was still the dominant strain in the UK!

Apartment blocks have been sealed off and a lady has mentioned in an interview that she was interrogated all day by track and trace (she tested positive and was asymptomatic).
This is horrendous and makes criminals out of people who are unfortunate enough to catch or just come near to a virus. There has to be a balance of civil liberties, most of us in the UK will abide by the law voluntarily but will not give up all our freedom to the state like that. I'd happily have more people fined who break the law egregiously (large gatherings, illegal opening of business etc), but sealing off blocks is utterly unreasonable.

@MRex
Make no mistake, covid 19 infection was rife in Thailand in March 2020.

Government figures only include positive tests and most people can't afford the tests or to be quarantined.

I live in Thailand. I caught it, all my family caught it and lots of my friends and colleagues caught it. The March lockdown did not stop social mixing and ended in May. Life has been near to normal until last week. Millions of people have had covid 19 here, yet there have only been 67 deaths. Most equatorial countries with very very low vit D3 deficiency have low numbers of severe outcomes/death.

@LWJ70 - why are you implying that I made a mistake? You commented about a "new" variant that actually is the one from Europe that is currently being replaced by an even more transmissible variant, I was letting you know.
Few countries had much test capacity back in March. Vitamin D3 is great, but having a smaller over-65 population is even better for reducing deaths.

I am in Saudi Arabia.
Approxinately half the UK population with less than 8% of the UKs covid deaths.
Schools and borders closed in March. Curfews were put in place and localised lockdowns during March - May. Masks mandatory, no woke exceptions.
Schools are still online. PCR test to leave the country and on return free tests at drive through booked through an app. Visitors or residents returning from the UK (+ other places with new strain) have further hoops to jump through.
Free vaccine for all citizens and residents over 18 booked through an app and available straight away.
I feel they have done a super job here

@MRex

Vitamin D3 is great, but having a smaller over-65 population is even better for reducing deaths.

Median age in UK =40
Median age in Thailand =39

UK population = 67 mil
Thai population = 69 mil

UK covid deaths = 77,346
Thailand covid deaths = 67

OK the age pyramids are going to be different, but not that different. Definitely something more profound working here.

@LWJ70 - age pyramids are available and you clearly know exactly how different they are. Why is it that you chose to show different data? You must know most UK deaths are age 80+?

@MRex

Just looked, I'm gobsmacked how similar the age pyramids are.

How does the age factor explain all the disproportionate BAME deaths? Whilst most BAME countries have much lower death rates ?

How does the age factor explain this graphic or the seasonality of a coronavirus pandemic in N and S hemisphere?

@LWJ70 sunshine. So Vitamin D is produced when your skin absorbs sunlight (and then is converted). In the U.K. much lower levels of sunshine and so this is why it is recommended all BAME children take vitamin D. (My children are dual heritage Asian/British and they’ve been on vitamin d drops from birth).

@GoldGreen

I agree. Please read my previous posts. As an adult, I hope you are taking 4000IU vitamin D3 daily. :)

@habibihabibi

Free vaccine for all citizens and residents over 18

Which vaccines are offered there?

"98 percent of the Thai older persons live with their families while only 2 percent live in institutions, mostly in Buddhist monasteries (Chayovan, N., 1999)."

UK Approximately 418,000 people live in care homes (Laing and Buisson survey 2016). This is 4% of the total population aged 65 years and over, rising to 15% of those aged 85 or more.

@lljkk

"98 percent of the Thai older persons live with their families while only 2 percent live in institutions, mostly in Buddhist monasteries (Chayovan, N., 1999)."

UK Approximately 418,000 people live in care homes (Laing and Buisson survey 2016). This is 4% of the total population aged 65 years and over, rising to 15% of those aged 85 or more.

I caught covid from my children here. So I guess there's much more chance of elderly people catching the disease if they are dispersed in the community - rather like the Italians.

The buddist monks, well they are out and about every community collecting alms - it's rather quaint.

@lljkk how come the death rate fell May - Sept in the UK ? The elderly didn't just gain immunity. What they did do is get out in the sunshine and assimilated D3. When the UV rays decreased in Oct their levels declined, simple.

@LWJ70 - How can you say the population structure is the same? 8.2% of Thais are over 70, 13.6% of UK citizens are over 70; 80% of the UK deaths have been in people over the age of 70. This makes a huge difference.

Initially, the experience from SARS may have helped most Asian countries (governments and citizens) to take this pandemic seriously early on, complacency undoubtedly had a huge effect in early spread. Thais seem to do much better than the UK with mask wearing, the Thai government managed its borders sensibly and they kept to the right side of not letting hospitals get overwhelmed despite the economic impact. Time spent outside gives ventilation as well as Vitamin D and both have an effect; so does mask wearing, season/ weather, fewer people transiting from all over the world... and luck with the strains (Thailand hasn't had the more transmissible ones yet).

That said, Thailand still had a lot of excess deaths in 2020; 8.5% or 13,000 by August: www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/06/lifting-the-veil-on-thailands-covid-19-success-story/, so it isn't the handful of deaths that you are claiming. At that point, the UK had about 50,000 excess deaths; far worse but with a much larger vulnerable population (those in care homes being particularly vulnerable). It's good to be proud of Thailand's achievements, and it's good to recommend vitamin D, but better to have and give the full picture rather than part of it.

@MRex

Sorry disagree. Prefer to follow the the overwhelming results of five clinical trails. Including one conducted in Preston and Leicester. As well as 53 worldwide studies here:

c19vitamind.com/
vdmeta.com/

Also hundreds of top scientists have written a document pleading world leaders to take notice:

vitamindforall.org/letter.html

More importantly @MRex, you haven't answered my two questions:

How does the age factor explain all the disproportionate BAME deaths? Whilst most BAME countries have much lower death rates ?

How does the age factor explain graphic (in the previous post) or the seasonality of a coronavirus pandemic in N and S hemispheres?

@lljkk how come the death rate fell May - Sept in the UK ? The elderly didn't just gain immunity. What they did do is get out in the sunshine and assimilated D3. When the UV rays decreased in Oct their levels declined, simple.

No, not simple. They just went outside, in the fresh air, and not couped up inside with no fresh air. As we know Covid transmits mostly in closed environments. Most oldies don't stay in the sun, even in the summer, and yes, of course Vitamin D has a big influence on the immune system, but I would suggest just being outside has a bigger one.

As a note for Vitamin D and oldies. In Italy, they have always put old people outside in the morning, often in doorways, to catch early morning rays, and before it gets too hot. Too much sun and heat, also being bad if you are elderly. I wish we were not so sun shy here.

How does the age factor explain all the disproportionate BAME deaths? Whilst most BAME countries have much lower death rates ?

Maybe because in home countries the BAME population are not so long lived (as already noted), and they have not been exposed to bad Western diets and therefore have less obesity.

How does the age factor explain graphic (in the previous post) or the seasonality of a coronavirus pandemic in N and S hemispheres?

Seasonality may have something to do with Vit D, as noted above, I am sure it plays it's part. But much is also due to being more outside, than in.

@MRex

Sorry, your excess death figure of 13,000 in Thailand seems to be from an Australian blogspot and is probably incorrect. Also, it doesn't match what was seen at ground level and on social media.

Here an official Thai census document from Mahidol Uni calculates 'There was no statistically significant increase this year'

How can it be that Asian people have much lower death rates
Did the Chinese deliberately manufacture a virus which was less deadly to Asian people

@BigWoollyJumpers

Elderly italians won't be sitting outside during winter.
The average February maximum temperature for Lombardy is 9 degrees Celsius. The sun is not high enough to assimilate D3.

Surprising that many, many spaniards and italians are very deficient in D3.

50% of spaniards:
academic.oup.com/jcem/advance-article/doi/10.1210/clinem/dgaa733/5934827

Also 50% of italians:
moh-it.pure.elsevier.com/en/publications/guidelines-on-prevention-and-treatment-of-vitamin-d-deficiency#:~:text=In%20Italy%2C%20approximately%2050%25%20of,not%20on%20vitamin%20D%20supplements.

@LWJ70 - Vitamin D is helpful, it is only that it's not the only thing that matters. If you read the research, ventilation is one of the top impacts on catching covid or not - and you don't get much more ventilated than being outside.

There have been detailed reports about BAME impacts; type of job, deprivation levels, multi-generational housing, English not a first language (unclear about advice), higher incidence of diabetes etc.

Your excess deaths report there is dated May, so it's too early to confirm or compare. Perhaps you're right that the blog poster is wrong, time will tell.