Possible stupid question - how close to nerd immunity

[Florelei]

I’ve been thinking about this and trying to do some research but I’m still confused.

We have been seeing really high numbers of daily cases for months now and in March we were told that well over 100k people were catching covid per day.

I’ve read over the past few months that (for example) 1 in 70 people currently have covid.

Given these high numbers how many people can realistically be left to be infected? Especially given that up to 1/3 of infections are a symptomatic and at least some people will never get the virus due to natural immunity.

I apologise if this is a stupid question.

The last estimate I read was that somewhere between 4 & 7 million have had Covid.

The question I would like to know is when should the vaccine start to affect the figures?

So, roughly a million were vaccinated in December. We are led to believe that one dose provides a decent level of immunity.
How many of those vaccines were to vulnerable people (rather than health workers)

To put it in to context, roughly 35,000 over 85s have died so far worth Covid (nearly half)
But over half a million vaccines have been given to over 80s so far - wouldn’t we think this is enough to start to make a small but noticeable reduction in hospitalisations? Or am I over simplifying it?

This kind of immunity has nothing to do with covid - it’s the new wave of nerd flu we need to worry about.

I already have it :o

My post may make no sense.
However, it is cheering me up that many, many more people have had a Covid vaccine in one month than have died of Covid in nearly a year.

@Wherediditgo the deaths are in older people, but hospitalisations and ICU admissions are primarily previously-fit patients in the 40-70 age groups (presumably because older frailer people are being palliated at home).

So no, unfortunately I wouldn’t expect this phase of vaccination to make much difference to hospitalisations, though it might improve the death rate. Maybe by next year when we move onto younger people?

Herd immunity reckoned to be about 80% of the population required generally - may be lower, but 80% is the gold standard I believe

No, it depends on R0, with the new variant it's likely higher than 80%, and remember "herd immunity" at that level doesn't prevent outbreaks, it's just sufficient that outbreaks don't replicate exponentially.

Measles - very contagious - requires well over 90% to get any sort herd immunity even the type where the 80% is.

However any level of immunity does limit the spread, so it makes the mitigations more successful, so you need less of them, Based on blood donor data many parts of London will now be over 20% - and why London's increases have been less than Kent's is because of the previous higher levels of infection there. It is still a very long way from herd immunity.

but hospitalisations and ICU admissions are primarily previously-fit patients in the 40-70 age groups

Which is extremely strange, given that this population group is made up of mostly unfit overweight people, it's very strange that the group that are suffering most in this age group is the fit section, when the vast majority are not fit. Of course the reality is "previously fit" in this context actually just means not diagnosed as clinically ill with something else. Having not done any exercise or given a shit about your diet in the last 10 years still gets you called "previously-fit" if you're on a covid ward.

Fit means living independently, with a CFS score

😂😂😂

I contracted nerd at the age of around 15. It seems most people are naturally immune though so I wouldn't worry about it too much.

On a serious note I don’t think immunity lasts long enough to reach herd immunity

We think we all had it December 2019.
(actually think I had long Covid)

Since then Dd was managing a wedding of 60 guests and 12 staff in February. Every guest and every staff member except Dd then tested positive for Covid

Then in early December Dd was working in one of the highest Covid areas with children and was very close to a group of other adults/staff members.

All again then tested positive for Covid except Dd
She was very surprised she hadn’t caught it and now thinks she could be immune.

I know the T Cell immunity lasts at least 6 months. Possibly more. I think they only were able to test people who had been tested when testing began so not people like us who had it before we even knew what Covid was

I assumed “fit” was generally understood by laypeople

Then you should not be doing any sort of medical communication if you believe fit is understood!

Although herd immunity is unlikely or a long way off R will start to decrease as more of the population have had it (or are immunised). I'm not sure what percentage would need to have had it in what timescale though.

No idea but your title cheered me up 😂

I didn’t think herd immunity was possible when you can catch it twice...

I think watching the Big Bang Theory for years has given most of us nerd immunity.

The mutation from this to Young Sheldon was not as bad as I feared. So nerd immunity has been achieved.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I assumed “fit” was generally understood by laypeople

Then you should not be doing any sort of medical communication if you believe fit is understood!

Or maybe you have a weird and not widely-held belief that the only possible meaning of the word “fit” is “runs a marathon each day, eats clean, and has a BMI of 18-20”. I think most members of the public can understand the other, “not ill”, definition.

You wanted to make a point about how fat and lazy the british public are. Fine. You have made that point. It is completely irrelevant to whether vaccination is likely to reduce hospital admissions though, isn’t it?

@Changechangychange

the deaths are in older people, but hospitalisations and ICU admissions are primarily previously-fit patients in the 40-70 age groups

What is this based on?

Mu husband tells me that talking about sports offers 60% protection against nerds.

ICNARC data showing she’s of people admitted to ICU, with their level of previous function.

www.icnarc.org/

And my own eyes, working in a hospital with a lot of Covid patients both in ICU and on the wards.

Ages”, not “she’s”

@Noellodee

Mu husband tells me that talking about sports offers 60% protection against nerds.

@MRex

Whatever happens with covid, I'll still need to work with IT specialists, so I don't expect any chance. They really aren't that bad.

I'm afraid it's hard to tell as we can't truly know how many people are immune - and we also need to remember that people don't necessarily remain immune forever and some people can catch it twice (for example I had it twice - once in May, then returned a positive antibody test showing immunity in the Summer, then caught it again in November...)

At the moment there have been 2,542,000 confirmed cases in the UK. Our population is 66 million, so 4% of our population have been definitely infected... Obviously the real number could be much higher, but 4% still isn't anywhere near enough for herd immunity, and some of those people may not still be immune.

It depends on the disease. Measles (one if the most contagious diseases that we know of) needed 95% of the population to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.

Covid is not as contagious as measles obviously... But the new strain of covid is more contagious / infectious, meaning that we need a higher percentage of people to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity against that strain.

Awesome typo!

I read about someone who had a confirmed, positive case early May and by Sept she had no antibodies. Now I think immunity is a bit more compliant than just antibodies but it’s a worry that it could be a never ending cycle. That the people who had it earlier could be ripe for getting it again?

Herd immunity threshold depends on R0. I’m not an expert in this field but this is how I understand it...

If R0 is 3 for coronavirus (i.e. everyday life) then if 2/3 of the population are immune then the disease dies off, as each person passes it to less than one person on average. (Simplification of course).

The new variant might have a larger R0, say 5 for normal life (70% higher). This means 4/5 of the population need immunity to stop spread in normal life.

4/5 is 80% which given we don’t vaccinate kids yet is nearly impossible. Especially as the vaccines don’t work in 5%+ of cases.

If 10% of the population have had it then that helps to reduce spread a bit, but no-where near enough. I reckon that, if natural immunity lasts, they will get to the stage where most people are vaccinated and the rest get it naturally over the next few years, with some restrictions still in place to slow it down.

But I’m a geek not a nerd, and we’re spreading everywhere. Less reclusive.