Possible stupid question - how close to nerd immunity

[Florelei]

I’ve been thinking about this and trying to do some research but I’m still confused.

We have been seeing really high numbers of daily cases for months now and in March we were told that well over 100k people were catching covid per day.

I’ve read over the past few months that (for example) 1 in 70 people currently have covid.

Given these high numbers how many people can realistically be left to be infected? Especially given that up to 1/3 of infections are a symptomatic and at least some people will never get the virus due to natural immunity.

I apologise if this is a stupid question.

Great thread title.
2.5 million tests have tested positive (some people may have twice?)
That's a long way off.
How many people have been vaccinated? How long does immunity last?

We're nowhere near herd immunity, even assuming immunity. lasts.

I believe herd immunity needs 80-90% of the population to have immunity. So far approx 2.5 million have tested positive which is nowhere near 80% of 65 million (I won't embarrass myself by try to work out the actual % as I definitely have nerd immunity).

I don't want to be immune to needs! Dp just made me watch every episode of the IT crowd I was in stitches!!

This is totally unscientific back of the fag packet maths and a lot of the assumptions are no doubt incorrect...but to give an example (more of a thought experiment really - in the spirit of nerd immunity!)

But, if we say 2.5 million have tested positive.

And double that for asymptomatic/untested cases. So say five million.

Herd immunity reckoned to be about 80% of the population required generally - may be lower, but 80% is the gold standard I believe.

That's 52.8 million.

So it would take over a decade with the current restrictions. And that's assuming eternal immunity which we know is hugely unlikely.

With no restrictions, you're looking at three to four years given a 'natural' r rate of 3-4. But the hospitals would be so overwhelmed that deaths from non-Covid illnesses would rocket.

Of course, it's something of a nonsense as the virus is relatively harmless for a significant proportion of the population. So we'd want 80% of the vulnerable to get it. And the death rate would be horrific.

Also, presumably the more people who had it, the slower it would spread.

Shame our government didn't have nerd immunity before this started

I'm sure we'd then be closer to some kind of clear strategy and knowing how we are getting out of this.

Many more than 2.5m people have had it. We weren't even testing people with symptoms early on. They think that we were only picking up 1 in 10 positive cases back in March - May. There was an estimate that 10% of the population had had it back in August I think and I saw an estimate that 10m have had it towards the end of October.

From what I have read, the best estimate of the IFR of covid is about 0.5%. If you extrapolate from our death figures that means that around 15m people have had it. There is clearly a lot of uncertainty on that as we don't really know what demographic is most likely to have had it and therefore what the IFR amongst those who have had it is - i.e. it affected care homes badly and the IFR for care home residents is very high but a lot of vulnerable people have been shielding or have been very careful so are less likely to have had it.

For what it's worth I don't think we will reach herd immunity naturally. No country seems to have got anywhere near even if they have made no real attempt to control the virus. Most European and American countries have death rates similar to ours. I did read something about India thinking they were seeing the affects of herd immunity recently but no idea if that was any scientific backing for that. The number who have had it in the UK should start slowing the spread at some point though even if immunity is temporary, particularly when combined with vaccination - if 1/4 have had it the opportunity for it to spread is significantly reduced. If the level of immunity in society gets very high that might prevent the risk of exponential growth but you would probably still see low levels of covid.

Herd immunity is a long way off. Try some ( very over- simplified with assumptions that havent been fact checked) sums.

For a population of 66 million, if you could vaccinate 1m per week, and 2 jabs are needed, it would take 132 weeks, ie 2.5 years to vaccinate everyone. I cant remember what % need to be immune to acheive herd immunity.

If you went with infection rate rather than vaccination, then if people continued to be infected at yesterdays daily rate of 53000 then this would take 1245 days, or 3.4 years. Infection rate will go down as more people are immune, so in practice would never reach everyone. We dont know how long immunity lasts after infection so may never acheive herd immunity this way.

Apologies for huge assumptions, I don't think i'm eligable for Nerd immunity here.

Nerd immunity

As for herd immunity - nowhere near close sadly. The US basically let the virus go in May and it's still raging there. Plus there are quite a lot of reports now of people catching it twice - I'm one if them, so it definitely happens.

Best thread I've seen in ages, thanks! I am a nerd so not sure whether I should self isolate to save infecting others, or be proud of my nerdiness & spread it as far and wide as possible.

I only have a basic understanding of herd immunity but I think we're miles off yet.

Best thread title in ages!

@DigitalChristmas

#nerdimmunity

On a serious note I don’t think immunity lasts long enough to reach herd immunity

We need to seriously hope that is not the case, because if it is the vaccines are all useless. All a vaccine does is boost that natural immune response. If there is no herd immunity possible the vaccines won't get us there either, unless we constantly have them topped up every few weeks / months.

As for the nerds, I'll be ok...I am one and I know a lot of others.

This thread made me laugh out loud which was much needed 😁

"Nerd Immunity"

Amazing 😂😂😂

@Moondust001 that's not true, vaccines are engineered to provoke a strong immune response and can often elicit a better one than the illness itself, especially than a mild case.

You are far from nerd immunity... Haven't you heard the geek shall inherit the earth

It's happening... one zoom call after another

Ooo excellent, I definitely consider myself a nerd...can I stop wearing my mask now? (Disclaimer: quite clearly joking before anyone jumps on me!)

Disclaimer - I have no idea.

Prof Wittysaid 80% of us would get it and around 2% of that would die. Our death stats suggest we arent anywhere near herd immunity but it's not as fatal as first thought.

But looking at the projections from Worldometres, they seem to imply we are getting there.

I cant see how that's true either as in a household of 6 or nuclear family of 9 none of us has had it. So that doesnt match up to 80% infected to reach immunity

Btw I'm a programmer by trade, dont worry about nerds. They tend to cluster together and are quite harmless

You have cheered me up on a miserable day op.

This gave me a much needed laugh OP, thank you. DH is currently browsing the Lego website so I think nerd immunity skipped me unfortunately

On a serious note I don't think we are even close are we?

Haha I could have done with a laugh , but sadly my nerdy herdy brain read it as herd !

Hi Op
By the Title of your Thread Post
The most Refreshing Orginal Alternative take on Covid Health
Crisis we are facing.
😂😂😂😊😀 L.o.l

Thanks for typo mistake !

The classic thing nursery workers say is they seem to suffer constantly with colds after starting a job, and then never get any respiratory bug ever again (as long as they stay in the job exposed to all the little germ-mongers).

I believe immunity will be possible, but it will take lots of repeat exposure, including perhaps again in old age -- like Shingles, you are at higher risk if no job or exposure to wild virus. Or like tetanus: need 4-5 boosters (exposures) to get lifelong immunity.

I don't think there will be nerd immunity until we have an effective vaccine against nerds. But as nerds are not usually harmful I don't think we have to worry about being immune to them. :)