To wonder why with two vaccines

[Tellmelies65]

Boris is still saying we won’t go back to normal till April.

Because its going to take months to give vaccines and for case rates and deaths to slow down

Having the vaccines isnt enough you do know you actually have to vaccinate all the people. And in this case twice.
It takes time and the NHS who are doing the vaccinating are swamped as they usually are in the winter due to under funding for years and now covid.
It will take time. Although I wouldn't believe his timescales disnt he mention easter? Christmas?

I will be over the moon if it’s April tbh. I can do 3 months with an end date.

But to answer your question, it will be because that’s when most of the vulnerable will have been vaccinated and so deaths and hospitalisation will be low.

Because we can’t vaccinate the whole world in a month 😉??

The vaccine isn’t fully effective until a month after the 2nd vaccine?

So even if you have the first dose now and the 2nd in a few weeks time it still wouldn’t be effective for quite a while. Many won’t receive the first vaccine until March.

It's complicated because what exactly happens once everyone over 70 who didn't refuse is vaccinated ? Do we just go on spreading the virus and not worrying about it?

The vaccine doesn't stop you getting it nor does it so you stop you spreading it. Vaccinated people will continue to spread the virus as well as unvaccinated people do now.

Until everyone who is likely to be hospitalised from COVID is vaccinated we won't see any change.

Because we don’t have all the doses ready to go.

He is just pulling your leg. It will all be fine by next week

It will take months to vaccinate everyone.
The government has estimated that there’s over 25 million people in the priority groups for the first phase of vaccine rollouts, that’s a lot of people to be vaccinated.

And both of the vaccines need 2 doses. The Pfizer one, 2 doses 3 weeks apart. The Oxford-AstraZeneca one, 2 doses 4 - 12 weeks apart.

So it will take time for people to be vaccinated, and rates of infection and hospitalisation to start to fall.

The vaccine doesn't stop you getting it nor does it so you stop you spreading it. Vaccinated people will continue to spread the virus as well as unvaccinated people do now.

I don't understand why you would write that is if you knew it to be true. It's just made up.

@notevenat20

The vaccine doesn't stop you getting it nor does it so you stop you spreading it. Vaccinated people will continue to spread the virus as well as unvaccinated people do now.

I don't understand why you would write that is if you knew it to be true. It's just made up.

The AZ vax is 70% effective - so no it doesn't guarantee you won't get it at all - same as all other vaxes. And there is no data on whether vaxed people can still transmit.

@notevenat20

The vaccine doesn't stop you getting it nor does it so you stop you spreading it. Vaccinated people will continue to spread the virus as well as unvaccinated people do now.

I don't understand why you would write that is if you knew it to be true. It's just made up.

This is literally very common information that has been out since the vaccine was first approved. I think it was Matt Hancock who even mentioned this himself. It's why vaccinated people still need to wear masks. Look at any news or UK government advice on this.

No, that is incorrect. The poster said ‘Vaccinated people will continue to spread the virus as well as unvaccinated people do now.*

The situation is that we don’t know either way.

It is actually pretty unlikely there will be no effect at all on spread, not least because coughing is a significant mechanism for spreading a lot of virus a long way. But it is also unlikely vaccination will stop you spreading it at all- the most likely scenario is some reduction, but given that what we want ideally is for nobody to spread it at all we need to carry on with the masks and distancing.

My mother received a call this morning and was vaccinated in the late afternoon.
It was all set up at our GP practice.
There were around 10 people administering, numerous people guiding.
Queueing and all took less than 10 mins.
It was very efficient.
Judging by the number of people around my estimate is that at least 3000 local people were vaccinated today. Perhaps more.

It won't be near normal by April unless they're vaccinating several million a week which doesn't look likely.

Even if they do then it'll only be April before those who got their first dose in January get their second dose in April.

Boris is having you on.

The situation is that we don’t know either way.

Yes this. Thank you. It's nice when there are sensible people on a thread.

@BEANBAG765

My mother received a call this morning and was vaccinated in the late afternoon. It was all set up at our GP practice. There were around 10 people administering, numerous people guiding. Queueing and all took less than 10 mins. It was very efficient. Judging by the number of people around my estimate is that at least 3000 local people were vaccinated today. Perhaps more.

That's brilliant

Manufacturing capability is the main limiting factor

As is the need for a second dose before protection is full-strength, and then a furtherb2 weeks minimum after 2nd shot.

So even though there should be an impact noticeable just a few weeks - remember there's a 2-3 week lag from time of infection to time of hospitalisation, as well as the 2 weeks for first shot to take proper effect. So minimum 5 weeks before a serious infection prevented by shot 1 to be a drop in the figures.

And of course with 12 weeks between shots, and a further 2 weeks for 2nd shot to produce full effect, that means it is 14 weeks from first shot. April is 14 weeks away.

Yes, of course by then there will also be more weeks worth of 1st shot vaccinated people. And depending on the numbers they can do each week, we might be seeing fewer hospitalisation.

If we do 1 million people a week, then category 4 maybe 5 will be receiving first shots by start April (CEV/70 yos, and 65yos).

The sun will be stronger by then as well, so favourable conditions for seasonal drop in cases too

It’s like buying revision guides. Just because you’ve got them on the shelf, you’re not going to get a grade 9 until you spend some time using them properly.

It's a massive logistic task.

I worry about the second dose -how are they making sure that is done in a timely way.

If we do 1 million people a week, then category 4 maybe 5 will be receiving first shots by start April (CEV/70 yos, and 65yos).

That doesn't sound like back to normal by April to me.

We do not have enough vaccines.
We have bought the doses.
But they are still making the batches.
They said very clearly the bottle neck is the manufacturing of the batches.
And then, multiply this by two doses, and the interval needed in between. So yes, it takes us into a few months into 2021.
But we are getting somewhere now. Some bright light at the end of the tunnel.
And quite a few people had a first dose, or is having it soon.

Because people are going to keep catching covid in the meantime, cos we cant just shut down the nhs to vaccinate, because we dont have all the doses we need yet, because there are already weeks of hospitalizations and deaths baked in. It's going to take time but I do believe we are on the path to some kind of spring normality.