Twitter thread by U.K. epidemiologist at QMUL.

[Guylan]

For those who may be interested a brief summary via Twitter of the very precarious situation we are in now in by a U.K. epidemiologist at QMUL.

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1343910098268282880?s=21

I saw this.

I hope they do close primary schools to shut down the case rate.

Why is no one talking about a proper shielding programme for all those in the highly-vulnerable-to-covid groups until they get their vaccination? For most highly vulnerable people we're talking about a matter of a few weeks max before they are vaccinated. Surely this is more effective and more achievable than trying to "make schools safe", however that's meant to work?

That is scary and depressing. Why is it my fate to be stuck in a country led by callous gung his and surrounded by people who just believe what suits them. Full lockdown, close schools but put money into great online provision, UBI for all.

Dr Guardasani argues for making schools safer rather than complete closure. I don’t know how feasible.

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1343915406868799490?s=21

She’s basically saying that we need to eliminate the virus, isn’t that almost impossible?

What I've seen implemented so far is wishy washy.
How to strictly enforce covid measures if for instance a teacher doesn't agree with them.
Let's say your dc main form tutor, doesn't actually believe in covid or cannot see the knock on effects of his students taking their masks off in canteens when no one sees or the tutor asks for windows to be closed because they feel the cold completely forgetting we are in a pandemic.
How does all this trickle down effectively?
Who enforces all of this?
What if the form tutor is given guidance for behaviour to pass on and they do this in effectively to bored teens who couldn't care less about covid... Just one scenario to think about in this tangled mess.

She’s basically saying that we need to eliminate the virus, isn’t that almost impossible?

Yes this seems like a very niche view. Most epidemiologists seem to be in agreement that we will have to learn to live with covid and that the vaccination will significantly reduce the risk of severe illness. I think, as a planet, we missed the "zero covid" boat about a year ago.

Is she not saying for those who have to be in school, there should be small class sizes, all those measures. For others high quality remote learning and some blended.

She’s also implying the vaccine won’t be enough, what else can we do? Once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated, alongside NHS and other front line staff we have to start opening up, or else the economy is completely destroyed surely?

@carlaCox

Why is no one talking about a proper shielding programme for all those in the highly-vulnerable-to-covid groups until they get their vaccination? For most highly vulnerable people we're talking about a matter of a few weeks max before they are vaccinated. Surely this is more effective and more achievable than trying to "make schools safe", however that's meant to work?

Totally agree.

My current opinion is that the UK and many other countries will only seriously consider a zero covid approach if something goes horribly wrong with vaccines in a way that destroys the ability of vaccines to be seen as a silver bullet in this pandemic.

"Why is no one talking about a proper shielding programme for all those in the highly-vulnerable-to-covid groups until they get their vaccination?"

Would there be a way of shielding highly vulnerable parents of school-age children though? Would the only way of dong that be for those dc to stay at home - with remote learning where possible - until the vulnerable parents are vaccinated - this might mean putting the parents closer to the top of the vaccination priority list? (Assuming the aim is to avoid closing schools altogether - not sure where things are this afternoon on that, as haven't been online.) I suppose it would be possible to pay for dedicated online tutors plus laptops for those dc. Not ideal but would be better than nothing?

Time to close the schools, vaccinate health workers, cared home staff, teachers and certainly secondary school kids, then re open

The elderly and everyone else can wait

@carlaCox

She’s basically saying that we need to eliminate the virus, isn’t that almost impossible?

Yes this seems like a very niche view. Most epidemiologists seem to be in agreement that we will have to learn to live with covid and that the vaccination will significantly reduce the risk of severe illness. I think, as a planet, we missed the "zero covid" boat about a year ago.

I wouldn’t say it’s niche. Seen a fair few experts call for suppression. But not political will for it.

Strategy used by Australia, NZ and S.E Asia

@Cornishpasty23

She’s basically saying that we need to eliminate the virus, isn’t that almost impossible?

Yes, I can't quite work out what she thinks should actually be done? She says that there aren't many more measures that can be implemented, that we probably can't vaccinate fast enough, but that we need full elimination. How? Closing schools is probably the right thing to do but it won't achieve that and keeping them open with better safety measures, as she seems to advocate later in the thread, certainly won't. Her main point seems to be that we should have eliminated the virus in February which is probably true but fuck all help now.

Strategy used by Australia, NZ and S.E Asia

When they had low case numbers. No one has eliminated from anything like the position we have now. Again, it may well be that that strategy should hAve been pursued in early February (though it would have been extraordinarily difficult politically then) but hindsight and I told you so don't help at all with what to do now.

I cba to read it tbh. I have lost count of the hundreds of experts and their opinions. Who to believe? They don’t all agree anyway.

@Chloemol

Time to close the schools, vaccinate health workers, cared home staff, teachers and certainly secondary school kids, then re open

The elderly and everyone else can wait

There is a massive flaw in your plan. Firstly, the vaccine is not suitable for children yet. Secondly, they don’t know if it prevents transmission, only reduces severity of disease.

By the way, no everyone else cannot “wait”, the whole world doesn’t revolve around schools. More older people and clinically vulnerable (20 million!) people catching Covid would crush NHS.

Gosh, .that's quite optimistic. She actually thinks covid can still be contained!

She's not an infectious disease epidemiologist.

I mean she's loud-spoken-opinonated & will probably make Proff soon, but she's come from another area (mostly data science). I humbly submit that's why she makes simplistic arguments. All I could do was read that & think How will this get paid for, where will you get the staff, would take ages to even start to implement all that to decent standard. Several recommendations in there not referenced or evidenced at all.

In theory, if we all stayed in our homes for 3 weeks. No shopping, no walks, no school. Only NHS staff, police and military allowed on the streets. No flights in and out - including freight. No public transport. No HGVs in. A complete society lockdown. Would we achieve zero Covid? In theory only hospital patients, NHS staff, Police and military would be transfering it. But that's still a lot of people transfering it amongst themselves and to their family.
So it would appear zero Covid isn't possible for the UK.

Why is no one talking about a proper shielding programme for all those in the highly-vulnerable-to-covid groups until they get their vaccination? For most highly vulnerable people we're talking about a matter of a few weeks max before they are vaccinated. Surely this is more effective and more achievable than trying to "make schools safe", however that's meant to work?*

Totally agree.

By the way, no everyone else cannot “wait”, the whole world doesn’t revolve around schools. More older people and clinically vulnerable (20 million!) people catching Covid would crush NHS.

No, but seeing as we've shut the whole country down, including schools for the best part of a year (so far) it does revolve around people over 85 apparently though...

Dr Guardasani argues for making schools safer rather than complete closure. I don’t know how feasible.
Hate to be negative but I am in Italy. Here, children have to wear masks all the time at school and keep their distance, wash their hands loads etc. Senior schools were shut down in November as there were so many cases. DS16's class all got tested just after the shutdown and lots of them were positive with no symptoms. He has been off school ever since.

How does she think it can be stamped out globally without waiting for vaccinations?