Twitter thread by U.K. epidemiologist at QMUL.

[Guylan]

For those who may be interested a brief summary via Twitter of the very precarious situation we are in now in by a U.K. epidemiologist at QMUL.

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1343910098268282880?s=21

My friend lives in a country where all schools have been closed since April. A high level of conformity to mask wearing, even on the streets, which is compulsory. A type of curfew in place for youth and elderly. All lessons are online. Yet still cases are rising and they have a high number of deaths. Although numbers are less than the UK per million, it shows me how easily transmissible this virus is. Keeping schools open with the knowledge we have now about mutations ,and how they could be even more contagious, does appear to be indulgent madness.

@Cornishpasty23

She’s basically saying that we need to eliminate the virus, isn’t that almost impossible?

Well, we got cases at a very very low level in the summer (apart from a couple of towns/cities where they basically didn't do the lockdown).

Then reopened everything, paid people to eat out indoors, let people travel freely (including abroad).

If only the government had kept the restrictions going and we still had the case levels from the summer. Obviously people will say that is naive, but countries that did exactly that are living much more normal lives than us right now.

As for closing schools but allowing holidays to Dubai and Maldives - something is very wrong with this country's government.

@ParadiseLaundry

By the way, no everyone else cannot “wait”, the whole world doesn’t revolve around schools. More older people and clinically vulnerable (20 million!) people catching Covid would crush NHS.

No, but seeing as we've shut the whole country down, including schools for the best part of a year (so far) it does revolve around people over 85 apparently though...

No not just over 85s at all. I think you probably know this. If not, have a look at the vulnerable category, it really isn’t just over 85s at all.

@DianaT1969

My friend lives in a country where all schools have been closed since April. A high level of conformity to mask wearing, even on the streets, which is compulsory. A type of curfew in place for youth and elderly. All lessons are online. Yet still cases are rising and they have a high number of deaths. Although numbers are less than the UK per million, it shows me how easily transmissible this virus is. Keeping schools open with the knowledge we have now about mutations ,and how they could be even more contagious, does appear to be indulgent madness.

@DianaT1969, that’s interesting. Can you say which country? Thank you.

@DianaT1969

In theory, if we all stayed in our homes for 3 weeks. No shopping, no walks, no school. Only NHS staff, police and military allowed on the streets. No flights in and out - including freight. No public transport. No HGVs in. A complete society lockdown. Would we achieve zero Covid? In theory only hospital patients, NHS staff, Police and military would be transfering it. But that's still a lot of people transfering it amongst themselves and to their family. So it would appear zero Covid isn't possible for the UK.

Zero Covid does not mean literally zero, but v low level with an effective TTT system to keep numbers low.

@MedSchoolRat

She's not an infectious disease epidemiologist.

I mean she's loud-spoken-opinonated & will probably make Proff soon, but she's come from another area (mostly data science). I humbly submit that's why she makes simplistic arguments. All I could do was read that & think How will this get paid for, where will you get the staff, would take ages to even start to implement all that to decent standard. Several recommendations in there not referenced or evidenced at all.

Thanks for linking to the November, Lancet article, v interesting. Large number of co signatories too in appendix.