If we are only a few hundred patients away from April 12th hospital peak

[MissMarpletheMurderer]

When we'd been in full lockdown for 20 days, what are the numbers going to be like in January when the Trafford center is full, streets are heaving and households have been mixing?

@Gunpowder

I don’t understand the order of vaccination. Why aren’t front-line HCP being vaccinated before the 80+ year olds? Surely it makes sense to vaccinate them first so there are fewer staffing issues and also so they aren’t vectors?

Also, why aren’t teachers higher up on the vaccination schedule? At my DC’s primary school 24 teachers tested positive in the month before the Christmas holiday.

They don’t expect the vaccine to limit transmission and the priority is to protect those at risk of death.

It's very regional
Up here in the NE numbers are still ok and managing, falling in DHs hospital and most of the region with a couple of hot spots
They are very busy vaccinating atm.
But friends in SWales and SE are overrun

DH got info this weekend through work that they had detected the new strain in the region back in late Nov but it doesn't seem to have exploded like elsewhere
They do expect a rise but have fingers crossed that it will be manageable.
DH was vaccinated yesterday as he was part of the team running the clinic

@Katie517

The hospitals are always going to be busier now than in April it’s winter. Usual flu and winter illness + covid. April covid and coming into a much less busy usual spring time. The headlines make it sound much scarier than it actually is. Yes there is an issue but it’s not as apocalyptic as the daily fail etc. like to make out

agreed . im afraid i dont believe half this terror scenario coming out of the press

I felt relief that schools are opening .

DH and I both need to work or we can't pay rent, bills and eat. There is no extra money to pay a nanny. We have no luxuries, don't smoke, don't drink, etc.

If the schools close then I need to leave my job or leave kids home alone 8-5.30

@PhilCornwall1

What is then? They've shut everything else practically.

They don't know the answer. They can shut everything, but how long for, before they have to admit, that isn't the answer to the problem. That's just storing up an even bigger problem than they have with that now.

right , they can shut everything down , while the economy tanks even more , people are going nuts with the never ending restrictions and losing their jobs and then when they lift it after numbers drop ,the minute they start to rise again they lock us up ! . the sooner they get all these elderly and vulnerable vaccinated the better because surely thats the only answer to this . as the reason for the lockdowns is really in a nutshell only to protect them anyway and prevent the nhs becoming overwhelmed with them if they catch it

Opening primary schools a week today is going to be a huge mistake.

They don’t expect the vaccine to limit transmission and the priority is to protect those at risk of death.

They need to prioritise school staff so schools can continue and teachers aren't fearful or repeatedly self isolating.

Surely 80+ are at risk of death, no matter if covid or not. Average life span in the UK is 79 for males and 83 for females.

It is much, much busier than a normal winter in my area. There is no flu around (and anyway flu doesn't normally take off until January /February). At this time of year the itu in my hospital (specialist centre) would normally have around 4 critically ill respiratory patients. We currently have 15. All covid. And the number is increasing daily. It is pretty dire. Very difficult to get any elective work done.

Have we really been in “full lockdown” though?

Once you are at 79 or 83 the expected lifespan is longer though. Plenty of people have years left

For those refusing to believe the dire state of our hospitals, do you regard nurses and doctors as liars and drama queens? It isn’t just the press reporting what’s happening the staff are telling people too! BBC have been into the hospitals, our local papers take pictures of the ambulances queuing outside A&E, 13 the other day!
Oh and forget flu, there’s virtually no flu in our local hospital because of masks and other measures. However there are over 200 Covid patients and ITU is full.

There's no good answer but we're going to need to vaccinate as fast as possible and people have to stay at home as much as they can. Lockdown hasn't been properly observed.

@Fivemoreminutes1

I suppose tents in the car park in a mild April were one thing, tents in the car park in January (when much of the country is experiencing snow) is another!

The ones in LA are full on sealed field hospital tents with electricity, computers, etc. I Imagine if they need to be heated they can be

I read this evening at peak in April was over 17,000, last week up to 22nd it hit 18,000 but on 28th now over 20,000 in hospitals. Very worrying as apparently now 1 in 10 NHS staff off sick either with Covid or self isolating. This vaccine just can't come quickly enough.

We have 21 out of 35 clinicians isolating currently on our psych ward. Its shit scary.

**Huugi

In Scotland and we are all shut down.
It's the southeast with the hospital problem right now

Exactly. Scotland's hospitals are no busier than usual for this time of year but then there's been no indoor mixing at all allowed for most of the country for 3 months now. England's rules have been far too lax for too long. A mini 4 week lockdown was never going to work as is now evident. There are parts of Scotland with zero cases in tier 4, the same as parts of England with over 600 cases per 100,000. It's madness.**
Not sure where in Scotland you are but my friends and family who work in the central belt say the last few weeks have been manic. Not all due to covid, again little if any flu, but massive miss management from hospital managers leading to staff moral plummeting, loys of staff sickness and now a steep rise in red ward admissions. Hospitals here are not all coping.

If you want schools to stay open fight for money to support changes to make it safer. Stop being passive aggressive by saying teachers are scared or all want schools closed, they aren't and they don't. They would like to see them safer, they would like to have the staffing to support children failed by society, who are failed year in year out but only when it suits the arguments of the middle classes do we hear about it daily.

[quote OhDear2200]@GarlicSoup

It would not help children, it would not help children who are being abused and neglected. It would not help the future health and welfare of the nation. It is a short term solution that will bring massive disadvantages long term.

I’m amazed at MNs willingness to totally sacrifice children and young people.[/quote]
I hope you are actively complaining about the shit lives that vulnerable children have without Covid? About how they suffer in the school holidays without free school meals? How social services should be better funded so that they can be fully supported at ALL times? I have worked with vulnerable children for years and most people as well as the government don’t give a shit about them as long as they are out of sight and they don’t have to think about them. Would you stop having your 6 weeks holiday because trust me, that is not good for vulnerable children either.

Or are you just one of those that use vulnerable children to your own advantage to argue that schools shouldn’t close because you don’t want them closed? I wonder...

Vulnerable children will always be vulnerable. We can’t sacrifice a whole economy for them as then there will be no money to pay for any services. We can’t sacrifice hundreds of thousands of people’s lives for them.

What we can do is support a full lockdown which is desperately needed now and make sure that the government put in ALL the money needed to fully support those children via social services and a safer place in school.

@OhDear2200

The problem is education is linked to long term health. Poor education leads to poor health. Chronic poor health costs the nation, costs the NHS.

The solution needs to be not at the cost of education.

So????!!! Your solution is to keep schools open and let thousands of people die who wouldn’t have done if you’d have shut them? To let thousands of people lose their jobs, homes and livelihoods as we have pointless lockdown after pointless lockdown when the problem spread is in schools?

Or would a better solution be to shut the schools, have the government and Ofsted mandate the best online learning possible, ensure that children who needed to be in schools were given a safer place in school (given all the funded needed) and then cut class sizes for the future going forward so that ALL children get a better education from now on rather than starving schools of so much money that they are unable to buy glue sticks.

Seems like a better solution to me. I don’t know why people are so accepting of the government not giving a shit about your child’s education (as much as they pretend to).

We’ve got another year maybe of lurching stumbling on doing things too late.

@HeronLanyon total rubbish. Or have you missed the news about the vaccine?

@Scottishgirl85

School closures might help the numbers, but has a devastating impact on children, particularly those from poorer/vulnerable households, and a huge impact on parents trying to hold down jobs. It's really not that simple.

whereas deaths in multigenerational households in deprived areas don't have a devasting effect on children? do ya think?

dongding yes - also we need to vaccinate huge numbers and effect on transmission etc not yet understood fully.
The ‘lurching stumbling and doing things too late’ worry I felt momentarily remains.

Think dealing with the virus and societal and health care after effects will involve us in huge number of significant decisions. In the U.K. we have had some magnificent progress/decisions/policies but also too many delayed half measures etc which have not helped.
That’s behind my fleeting worry of yesterday.
If you see it as ‘total rubbish’ that’s fine.

I’m amazed at MNs willingness to totally sacrifice children and young people.
Same here! For a site where most people presumably have children is amazing that they and their education seem to be so undervalued. Ok so as a teacher I am probably biased in favour of education -hence wanting schools open and functioning without ridiculous impediments,

@EmmanuelleMakro

I’m amazed at MNs willingness to totally sacrifice children and young people. Same here! For a site where most people presumably have children is amazing that they and their education seem to be so undervalued. Ok so as a teacher I am probably biased in favour of education -hence wanting schools open and functioning without ridiculous impediments,

ok if you are a teacher you seem very limited in understanding of infection control

@HeronLanyon

dongding yes - also we need to vaccinate huge numbers and effect on transmission etc not yet understood fully. The ‘lurching stumbling and doing things too late’ worry I felt momentarily remains.

Think dealing with the virus and societal and health care after effects will involve us in huge number of significant decisions. In the U.K. we have had some magnificent progress/decisions/policies but also too many delayed half measures etc which have not helped.
That’s behind my fleeting worry of yesterday.
If you see it as ‘total rubbish’ that’s fine.

quite right re this government lurching and stumbling, good description I'd say