If we are only a few hundred patients away from April 12th hospital peak

[MissMarpletheMurderer]

When we'd been in full lockdown for 20 days, what are the numbers going to be like in January when the Trafford center is full, streets are heaving and households have been mixing?

The new strain wasn't dominating in Wales last I heard and their rates are high. It is already everywhere to some degree.

@OhDear2200

Shutting schools is not the solution

What is then? They've shut everything else practically.

School closures might help the numbers, but has a devastating impact on children, particularly those from poorer/vulnerable households, and a huge impact on parents trying to hold down jobs. It's really not that simple.

I don't know, that's why I said challenging.

But if NHS is overwhelmed and there aren't the staff, you need to park people somewhere where they will either die or recover, and that place isn't the corridor.

Or are you just going to turn people round at the door and send them home?

I'm not sure that the reality of what 'overwhelming the NHS' will look like has really been grasped by some people.

Once NHS staff have been vaccinated, there is some hope that more beds can be staffed, as the large numbers on sick leave are expected to reduce. But that will also still be challenging.

@OhDear2200

Shutting schools is not the solution

But it would help.

@GarlicSoup

It would not help children, it would not help children who are being abused and neglected. It would not help the future health and welfare of the nation. It is a short term solution that will bring massive disadvantages long term.

I’m amazed at MNs willingness to totally sacrifice children and young people.

What is then? They've shut everything else practically.

They don't know the answer. They can shut everything, but how long for, before they have to admit, that isn't the answer to the problem. That's just storing up an even bigger problem than they have with that now.

Most kids here aren't going back in person until the 18th January.
I don't see how Southeast England can just resume school as if nothing were happening. Are they due to open as normal?

[quote OhDear2200]@GarlicSoup

It would not help children, it would not help children who are being abused and neglected. It would not help the future health and welfare of the nation. It is a short term solution that will bring massive disadvantages long term.

I’m amazed at MNs willingness to totally sacrifice children and young people.[/quote]
We cannot allow our health system to be overwhelmed.

Sorry but health trumps education.

I'm a teacher in tier 4. We are in an emergency situation here. Schools will continue to have vulnerable and kw children and exam years in. This is a once in a century pandemic it needs once in a century solutions.

@PhilCornwall1 until the vaccine programme is established in wider society?

[quote KnowingMeKnowingYule]@PhilCornwall1 until the vaccine programme is established in wider society?[/quote]
And that will be when?

Last time around, anything non-urgent was cancelled, and the plan was to redeploy the staff who normally do that care to the Nightingales. Along with vets, students, retired staff, airline hostesses... There was general good-will and a willingness to do what it took.

This time, the pressure is on to carry on with as much routine care as possible, reducing the staff available for redeployment. That will change - is already changing - in response to pressures, but it takes time for that to work through. Staff are already exhausted and many of us are already ill.

There's also much less good will and willingness to be redeployed. Certainly my view would be that I would resist redeployment to a Nightingale unless:

1. I was vaccinated first (so that's a month's lag)
2. Schools and anything other than truly essential shops closed to minimise spread as much as possible. During the November lockdown, a local antique/junk shop stuck a couple of bikes outside and declared itself essential - I'm blowed if I will be redeployed anywhere else in the country when people are happily shopping for tastefully not-matching china.
3. The costs I will incur (extra travel, childcare...) are covered in full.

I think in April we could have staffed the Nightingales, if we'd had to. Now? It's a different ball game.

The problem is education is linked to long term health. Poor education leads to poor health. Chronic poor health costs the nation, costs the NHS.

The solution needs to be not at the cost of education.

@ohdear Completely agree. It seems to be overwhelmingly teachers who want schools to close. I can see why and they should be prioritised for the vaccine together with the police and social workers.

@PhilCornwall1 March hopefully. By February half term we could reevaluate.

Most kids here aren't going back in person until the 18th January.

I'm in tier 4 and, as far as I know my children are due to go back on 6th Jan (primary) and 11th Jan (secondary)
I wouldnt expect teachers or schools to be told about any changes until at least 7pm on 5th Jan.

I don’t understand the order of vaccination. Why aren’t front-line HCP being vaccinated before the 80+ year olds? Surely it makes sense to vaccinate them first so there are fewer staffing issues and also so they aren’t vectors?

Also, why aren’t teachers higher up on the vaccination schedule? At my DC’s primary school 24 teachers tested positive in the month before the Christmas holiday.

I wouldnt expect teachers or schools to be told about any changes until at least 7pm on 5th Jan

I can't seem them having that much notice, 8.01am on the 6th?

I am fed up of Covid Secure Sturgeon but at least she gave us some notice. In fact if you listen to her Tuesday homilies she usually gives spoilers as to what we can expect the next week.

In Scotland and we are all shut down.
It's the southeast with the hospital problem right now

Exactly. Scotland's hospitals are no busier than usual for this time of year but then there's been no indoor mixing at all allowed for most of the country for 3 months now. England's rules have been far too lax for too long. A mini 4 week lockdown was never going to work as is now evident. There are parts of Scotland with zero cases in tier 4, the same as parts of England with over 600 cases per 100,000. It's madness.

Why aren’t front-line HCP being vaccinated before the 80+ year olds?

They're being done at the same time - both are priority 2, and priority 1 and 2 are both being done at the moment

sorry but health trumps education

Will that still be your viewpoint a few years down the line when there is a shortage of newly qualified medical professionals coming through the system because children didn't get the grades to go to med school given the vast amount of schooling they have missed (and will never catch up on) or that the doctor attending to you in your later years under normal circumstances would never have been offered a place to study medicine but given that no exams have taken place during covid times.....thats if there even is a health care system anymore given that businesses are closing down and working parents will be forced out of the workplace if school closures continue to happen so ultimately less taxes are being paid into the health system etc.... Its all fine and well saying health trumps education in the short term but you really need to consider the longterm impacts of that decision as well.

I don’t understand the order of vaccination. Why aren’t front-line HCP being vaccinated before the 80+ year olds? Surely it makes sense to vaccinate them first so there are fewer staffing issues and also so they aren’t vectors?

They don’t know that it will stop then being vectors (hence the advice that those vaccinated must continue to follow all guidance including masks etc).

@pennylane83 dont be ridiculous.
Children will always get the grades to go into medical school

If theres not enough children getting the grades they will lower the grades. And given the fact that grades are standardised and set by exam boards based on students performance in that exam theres not going to be a shortage of high performing children

I bloody hope our medcine training is good enough that its sort of irrelevent what they learnt in sixth form ffs. Any doctor is more than capable of picking up a biology textbook.

Health and education are massively linked but that does not mean missing a year of education = poor health. It is much more complex than people who missed school will have poor health.

Just read the give message - business as usual Re opening schools (with the staggered start). For the first time in this whole shit show I felt shock and teary and frightened and angry - momentary but it was pretty strong. I suddenly thkight oh my god were never going to do what is needed. We’ve got another year maybe of lurching stumbling on doing things too late. Really felt it rather than just knew it.