The infection rate for pupils last week was 2,509 out of 100,000!!

[SoscaredforJan]

The Times today had reported that the infection rate for secondary pupils last week was 2,509 out of 100,000!! With the rate for primary school pupils close behind.

That’s absolutely shocking.

Rates of 300+ per 100,000 in the South East led to the emergency Tier 4 announcement at the weekend.

Rates among secondary school children are approx nine times this and primaries not far behind.

There can no longer be any conversation about schools remaining open. They need to close to all but key workers and the vulnerable and not reopen until the government has provided the money and means to make them truly ‘Covid secure’ or until enough people have been vaccinated.

How many deaths will we have in a months time when those infections have transferred to the elderly and vulnerable? How many more mutations will we have if the virus is allowed to carry on running through children? I for one do not want to find out that they vaccine no longer works.

It’s time to do what needs to be done. It’s tough and awful for everyone but it has to be done. The schools need to close.

the reported rates for age 0-15 are the lowest at about 105/100,000 and the rates for 15-29 are the highest at 210/100,00.

That’s confirmed cases from community testing,

We know that children and young people are way more likely to be asymptomatic or have the wrong symptoms than get the required adult symptoms to trigger a test, so the reported case rates per 100,000 for children are actually way below the actual infection rates.

First lets take all the vaccine stuff out OP - both Biontech and AZ have said that this strain is still effective.

And if one does mutate and it is not - then they will do what we do with the flu each year tweak it. Biontech have said that will take 6 weeks to do so.

I think the worst thing that happened before Christmas was Central Government overruling Local Government. What the antedoctal evidence shows is that this hits different schools and different areas at different times. A blanket shut down of schools was necessary then it isnt now.

If we have learnt anything over the past year it is that it clusters what works for one school wont work for the other.

There should be clear guidance and decisions allowed at a local level. Community numbers that spark certain things - a number blended learning happens and a number complete online learning happens. Decisions made within school (trusts) and at a council level.

For example in London at the moment there are certainly councils that should be closing to all with online learning in January and perhaps others who should be doing a blended approach. With movement in and out coming at a local level. Education is very much dealt with at a local government level I cant see why it could be now.

Apart from the problem of course with the above is that they decided not to cancel or have an plan with exams which means this is unfair. THough quite how that would work with a blanket closure either

@SoscaredforJan

Sorry, now attached

That's it absolute numbers. It's positivity rate of those tested. Completely different.

That's NOT.....

My kids have self isolated and nobody else (that we're aware of) got ill.

A mnetter on another thread said that one kid in her child's class tested positive and then during the self isolation period another 10 tested positive. You have to assume this is the new strain. I'm all for schools staying open but seems impossible if that kind of infection rate is commonplace.

In my borough (with an overall rate of 170) the reported rates for age 0-15 are the lowest at about 105/100,000

I've just done some back of an envelope calculations based on these two graphs. The one that counts cases from people presenting for tests or being tested in hospital, and the one that's from random sampling.

It suggests a case rate of 125/100,000 for 5-9 year olds through normal testing.
And an infection rate 1950/100,000 for age 2 to 11 year olds (the most comparable age group.)

This suggests that roughly 6% of cases in those kids are being picked up by tests.

For 70+ lets go with a case rate of 225/100,000
The random sampling has a case rate of 760/100,000

That suggests that about 30% of cases in that age group are being picked up.

So when you're talking about case rates in various age groups, you can't compare them fairly. Cases in kids are being severely under-reported.

Whoa. I knew cases were underreported but thought it was about 1/3 or 1/4 of cases being picked up. Didn’t realise it was quite so skewed towards the asymptomatic cases
Interestingly based on those charts looks like the 20-29 age group are pretty good at getting tested as the rates are similar

The random sampling doesn't include cases in hospitals and the pillar 1 and 2 graph does, which also makes it very hard to compare.

But it does appear that the primary age group is particularly under-reported.

@noelgiraffe

The random sampling doesn't include cases in hospitals and the pillar 1 and 2 graph does, which also makes it very hard to compare.

But it does appear that the primary age group is particularly under-reported.

Not very random that. You'd think if they were planning to swab someone and they found out they'd had a positive test in the last few days that they'd count them as a positive unless there was a suspicion that it was a hospital acquired infection.

No such thing as schools being 'COVID safe' Ihearttc.

My school has done everything in its power to keep us safe. Provided soap & hand sanitizer, extra cleaning, staggered start & end times, children kept in bubbles, etc.

Problem is, you can't expand the buildings. You can't halve class sizes. You can't stop people sending their children in having given them Calpol to lower their temp ()

I'm currently in bed having tested positive yesterday. Haven't been anywhere else other than school. Several colleagues also positive.

We're not talking about closing schools indefinitely. Just a few weeks to try and stop this fucker spreading. Without closing schools, it doesn't matter what else is done in whatever tier...this is, sadly, the only thing that could now make any sort of difference to infection rates.

And believe me, I wish it weren't so. I hate teaching online but the tipping point has been reached.

Problem is teachers have been shouting about this since schools returned in September. Schools needed the government to implement more adjustments to make them safer. No-one wanted to listen. Most parents seemed to believe that as long as their school was open for their dc, then nothing needed to be done. The media weren't interested. The government spouted lies which the media sold to everyone. Look where that has led us. Now after everything teachers have been working so hard to prevent happening, there is talk of school closures. Guess who gets the blame....schools.

@lonelyplanet, Yes, absolutely, and we're STILL seeing it on these threads too. Even now, there are selfish short-sighted posters piling in to say that their school is fine so whey can't they carry on as normal.

It's infuriating.

Good luck with that, everyone at my school is a 'key worker'. And fair enough because guess what, all types of work are equally important now the economy is entirely screwed.

It's such a hard situation.

It's really frustrating that schools are the hub of the spread and yet are one of the only things to remain open.

But equally I can see why as kids need to be educated and every month they are closed puts them further behind. The only alternative I could see if they close again is for everyone to restart the year they were in, but then that affects those due to start school next September as those who started this year will still be in reception.

@ElizabethG81 I'm just saying we don't need blanket school closures. Bring in testing, yes. But don't just close every school in the country for an indefinite period. would that be the lateral flow test you are referring too? The ones that missed 51% of all positive cases in Liverpool?

@Bibidy But equally I can see why as kids need to be educated and every month they are closed puts them further behind.
I keep seeing this behind trotted out, behind what exactly? The arbitrary line the DofE and Ofsted have created. It doesn’t not matter if children do not learn X Y and Z in year 4 or 7 or even 11. Do people believe every child in the world learns the identical curriculum, and without that very specific knowledge they will have no life chances.

We're in a minority, starting school at 5, aren't we? I think some countries don't start formal schooling until age 8.

It's not about risk to staff and pupils as such. Either a statistic, risk level or moral duty.

Read the science. The more a virus is in circulation the more it mutates to its advantage.

The risk is the large numbers of people mixing, asymptomatically and the mitigation's that could then render the vaccine ineffective.

We need to suppress the virus for biological and epidemiological reasons.

It's not all about personal risk.

Some sen dc will suffer but a surprising amount thrived in lock down actually and many dc across the board who have anxiety and other issues preferred school on line.

My dd after, agonising wrangles with twinkle, no work sheets or support from school, actually came on when I brought my own workbooks, signed up for reading chest.

Many dc with other mh issues also preferred to work from the safety of home.

Op, why isn't that graph headline news?

Why don't any journalists put this to the pm when he does his pressers.

I'm also dreading January. I think I'll keep mine off... Perhaps by stealth at first ie... Sickness, tummy bug... Until we know more.
It's a massive safe guarding issue.

PS our primary didn't give out work and then didn't even do a catch up or rehash from March. Or the beginning of the year. Right at the last moment they shoved stuff on Google classroom with no support and said year 2 curriculum covered.

Year 3 had no going back over what they missed. Nothing they ploughed ahead with year 3. The whole experience and my dd sen has taught me, I can't rely on them to teach her.

@SoscaredforJan

The Times today had reported that the infection rate for secondary pupils last week was 2,509 out of 100,000!! With the rate for primary school pupils close behind.

That’s absolutely shocking.

Rates of 300+ per 100,000 in the South East led to the emergency Tier 4 announcement at the weekend.

Rates among secondary school children are approx nine times this and primaries not far behind.

There can no longer be any conversation about schools remaining open. They need to close to all but key workers and the vulnerable and not reopen until the government has provided the money and means to make them truly ‘Covid secure’ or until enough people have been vaccinated.

How many deaths will we have in a months time when those infections have transferred to the elderly and vulnerable? How many more mutations will we have if the virus is allowed to carry on running through children? I for one do not want to find out that they vaccine no longer works.

It’s time to do what needs to be done. It’s tough and awful for everyone but it has to be done. The schools need to close.

Oh right now you said it that will have to happen then.

Who made you the boss of everyone?

This suggests that roughly 6% of cases in those kids are being picked up by tests.

The age group least able to do the test effectively without a fuss, and the age group least likely to show symptoms. It's no surprise that young primary have not been fast to take up tests!

@lonelyplanet

Problem is teachers have been shouting about this since schools returned in September. Schools needed the government to implement more adjustments to make them safer. No-one wanted to listen. Most parents seemed to believe that as long as their school was open for their dc, then nothing needed to be done. The media weren't interested. The government spouted lies which the media sold to everyone. Look where that has led us. Now after everything teachers have been working so hard to prevent happening, there is talk of school closures. Guess who gets the blame....schools.

This. My God our voices on here since August onwards when the DfE put up their bullshit about tiering in education then ripped it up. We have been saying repeatedly what would happen. No one listened just PR bullshit about unions etc etc In reality many teachers are upset that unions have done little to protect them.

So many people with blood on their hands- the government, Labour, Us4them, some academy trusts who supported the nonsense back to school plan with appallingly poor mitigations.

@AldiAisleofCrap, Good point. Plus, of course, the curriculum doesn't work in the linear way that many parents seem to think. We constantly revisit topics/concepts throughout their journey.

@itsgettingweird

It's not about risk to staff and pupils as such. Either a statistic, risk level or moral duty.

Read the science. The more a virus is in circulation the more it mutates to its advantage.

The risk is the large numbers of people mixing, asymptomatically and the mitigation's that could then render the vaccine ineffective.

We need to suppress the virus for biological and epidemiological reasons.

It's not all about personal risk.

Agree wholeheartedly