Is this new strain less deadly?

[Whenallthelights]

Considering the massive rise in daily cases, there doesn't appear to be a corresponding rise in deaths. Could this new strain have mutated into a less severe version?

That does sometimes happen but I suspect it’s too early to say.

There’s a time lag with deaths of at least 2-3 weeks, and at the moment the age groups infected differ from early in the year. So it’s really too early to know but not many seem to think it likely.

Though I did watch something interesting about a deletion (ORF?) found in both this new variant and a milder one in Singapore that died out which sounded interesting, although I don’t think there is much evidence for it.

I would think we are a week or two away from knowing that due to the time lag but deaths are rising.

My understanding is that we arent yet in a position to be sure about this mutation however it is a common pattern for viruses to become more transmissable but less serious so fingers crossed.

There hasn't been enough time to know, we need at least 2 weeks to measure any effect

Yet

It’s too early to say/

Desperately hopeful! I feel like the light at the end of the tunnel I could see a few weeks ago has disappeared.

@helpfulperson

My understanding is that we arent yet in a position to be sure about this mutation however it is a common pattern for viruses to become more transmissable but less serious so fingers crossed.

Unfortunately Covid is able to transmit before the victim becomes ill therefore there may not be the usual evolutionary pressures for it to become less serious, it could transmit to new hosts before killing it's host.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-55388846

They do say that it was first detected in September.
Also that is present in other countries too.

Other coronaviruses have adapted to be the common cold. So hopefully this will too.
I cannot find the link now, but apparently it spreads faster as it affects more the upper respiratory track. So hopefully it will then no need to get into the lungs. And we will be left with runny nose, sore throat and hepadaches. But no pneumonia or long covid.
Maybe still the remark tiredness that seems to produce.
I still have some hope.

I wonder if the main symptoms are different with this strain? Hearing lots of people testing positive with cold symptoms. Unless they have a cold at the same time!

I was wondering that. In my area cases have rocketed over the last couple of weeks, but deaths are low, comparable to a normal winter. I know there's a lag and we need more time to see but I would have expected them to have started going up more here than they have.

@Delatron

I wonder if the main symptoms are different with this strain? Hearing lots of people testing positive with cold symptoms. Unless they have a cold at the same time!

I have heard similar, and stomach aches too (no V&D)

I believe!

I suggested this to DP and he asked upon what I was basing my theory. Well I read that 14 people attending a wedding. 11 got covid but had no symptoms. That's enough for me for now. Plus a little prayer.

I’m desperately holding onto this theory, I need some hope now. I guess we will know in a few weeks!

@MushMonster

Other coronaviruses have adapted to be the common cold. So hopefully this will too. I cannot find the link now, but apparently it spreads faster as it affects more the upper respiratory track. So hopefully it will then no need to get into the lungs. And we will be left with runny nose, sore throat and hepadaches. But no pneumonia or long covid. Maybe still the remark tiredness that seems to produce. I still have some hope.

I think I'm right in saying that it took hundreds of years for the other coronaviruses to become mild.

I’ve thought about this too and the way I see it is if I was a virus (never thought that would be something I’d ever say) my priority wouldn’t be killing the host, it would be infecting as many as possible so that I keep on living and then even re-infecting later on.

@helpfulperson

My understanding is that we arent yet in a position to be sure about this mutation however it is a common pattern for viruses to become more transmissable but less serious so fingers crossed.

I hope this is true I know 4 people with it and they are having really mild symptoms!

My eldest child tested positive last week. We took them to be tested as a child in their class tested positive. In the last week 12 children in the same class have tested positive and not one of them has had any symptoms. We live in a part of London that had closures last week. I’m wondering if this is the new (weaker?) strain.

I've wondered about this a great deal. I really hope so.
Cases have gone up loads in my area, but death rates not at all. I initially thought that was because infections have mostly been in schools. But looking at the graphs there have been increased infections in the over 65s too. Over the last fortnight. Mercifully, they're not dying. Time will tell of course. I'll be watching the data with baited breath.
Anyway, thank you for starting this thread, it gives me hope to think that others are thinking along the same lines as me on this

Probably too early to say

Would be good if so though

Also, yes, people testing positive don't seem to be getting severe symptoms.
For all we know, half the town could be wandering around with Covid, blissfully unaware, due to symptoms so mild, they're dismissing them as lack of sleep or something. If the virus is becoming gentler, maybe that's not such a scary thing? Anyway, I'm desperately hoping this is true

@GypsyWanderer

I’ve thought about this too and the way I see it is if I was a virus (never thought that would be something I’d ever say) my priority wouldn’t be killing the host, it would be infecting as many as possible so that I keep on living and then even re-infecting later on.

Of course a virus does not think, changes are random, some benefit it, some do not.

My friend who has covid (in Wales) has cold type symptoms, and so only got tested because she's been in contact. We might need to revise guidance on who gets tested? I know there is a lot of capacity in the system for testing ATM.