Is this new strain less deadly?

[Whenallthelights]

Considering the massive rise in daily cases, there doesn't appear to be a corresponding rise in deaths. Could this new strain have mutated into a less severe version?

@Aprilrainbow well yes I didn’t say it was definitive proof, I wasn’t suggesting the virus has a conscious. Just that from an evolutionary standpoint it would make sense so I’m keeping my fingers crossed that that is the case.

I’d hate to be over optimistic but various articles I have read say that when viruses mutate they generally become more easily transmissible but less deadly. Here’s hoping 🤞

If there’s spare capacity in the system then they should definitely change the criteria. The continuous cough/ temperature really doesn’t happen for many people, especially kids.

Are they not saying that this strain has been around since September and we’ve not had a rapid increase in deaths?

Me, my toddler and three staff members all had covid a few weeks ago, we only tested as one staff members mum had it picked up that she was positive on a routine care home test.
Not one of us had really any symptoms. Bit of a sore throat but no cough, temperature or anything.

This thread is giving me hope. The experts say it’s not less deadly, but maybe they don’t want people to relax too much. I have read that the new strain can give a higher viral load though, so could the new strain actually be worse?

Researchers are also investigating whether B.1.1.7 has any impact — for good or bad — on how sick it makes people, though so far the mutations only seem to have affected transmissibility, not pathogenicity (how the virus causes disease). Experts in the U.K. are reviewing the rates at which people with the variant are hospitalized and how long they stay, as well as deaths.

“It’s early days, so as people know, both hospital admissions and mortality are lagging indicators, usually take two to four weeks to see,” said Susan Hopkins, an epidemiologist at Public Health England. “I think we will be very cautious until we’ve had enough time to be able to make accurate assessments.”
www.statnews.com/2020/12/21/looming-questions-new-variant-coronavirus/?

It's worrying that the lateral flow tests seem to be so inaccurate. Especially if they are relying on those to detect those with unusual or no symptoms. I guess the best thing to do is to get a test if you are at all unsure.

OP that is usually what happens with viruses do very likely yes, but the more extreme elements on here and elsewhere don’t want the pandemic to be over just while they are still enjoying wallowing on the misery.

A friend has just tested positive but only knew it because was routinely tested when attending an appointment for totally unrelated matter. No symptoms -in her mid-60s.

As I understand it, there is no evolutionary pressure on this virus to become less fatal.
Take Ebola. It is highly contagious all through the symptomatic period and even after death. If a person lives longer, they have more opportunity to infect.
Now look at COVID. The infectious period is at the beginning, for about a week after the onset of symptoms. However, symptoms at this point are usually mild. Hospitalisation takes place later, after milder cases would have done all their infections and been over with. The more serious cases that continue being infectious are a little bonus to the viruses ability to spread. They cause it to spread more, not less, so there is no advantage to a variant that only has the mild cases and not the longer lasting cases causing hospitalisation.

It would be really good to have some indication of the numbers of asymptomatic cases/mild cases/ more severe cases out of the total tested positive. I guess the only indicator we have is the numbers of hospital admissions.

I suppose there would be an advantage for it to develop more asymptomatic cases if it also improved the transmissibility between those cases, now I think about it. Kind of like the hiv model of infection, silent in its early stages.
Sorry, just thinking out loud here.

@SilverGlitterBaubles

It would be really good to have some indication of the numbers of asymptomatic cases/mild cases/ more severe cases out of the total tested positive. I guess the only indicator we have is the numbers of hospital admissions.

Do the ons not follow up on any of their random testing to get hospitalisation and fatality rates? They seem ideally situated to do this.

Like many I knew no one who had covid the first wave. Now I know plenty but all of them with cold symptoms and the majority caught via schools! I'm really hoping OP that you might be correct but I guess we won't know till January

I think I got this things last week in London. Stomach ache, runny nose, a bit of a sore throat, felt a bit hot for a couple of days then gone...

I do hope it is getting less potent as it spreads faster. Isn't that what happened with the Spanish flu too? evolved into something milder.

Is there an increasing divergence between ONS study and positive test numbers? and does that mean anything