For the first time since this started, I feel quite frightened

[FreeBettyBoop]

Just this really.

I am concerned that there is something they’re not telling us. Is the new strain worse? I know there is chat about easier/faster spread but is it more deadly? Affecting children?

I’m in Scotland and all of a sudden we are looking at lockdown and school closure. Why now?

In a bit of a pit of despair today. I can live with the Christmas restrictions and will comply. But the thought of going back to school closures while trying to hold down a job...😩 gutted for the kids too.

@onedayinthefuture

Two people I know in the South East recently caught the virus in a very high case area. Both are older and vulnerable and were absolutely fine.

Someone I know caught the virus lately avc they are absolutely dead. There is zero sense in homing in on specific cases to make a point.

And

Viruses tend to evolve towards being more infectious and less deadly if that helps. The following is a tweet thread from a scientist who studies covid variants twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1340359989395861506?s=20

This worries me too. There was a little boy in intensive care recently in Scotland. Was that the new strain? They are saying the r number will increase up to 0.9 so hopefully it’s just that it is more contagious that is worrying them. R of 0.9 more would make it almost impossible to contain without considerable more restrictions

This new variant has been around since September but was conveniently highlighted by the government yesterday to cover up their failings.

It was noted at the end of Septemebr but that doesn't mean anyone knew the significance of it. It's only very recently that it's become a serious concern.

The idea that science and government have held back information or colluded to spoil Xmas day is ridiculous

Every time the virus replicates in a new host, it has the opportunity to mutate. More infected people = more opportunities to mutate.

This is a major reason why it is so important to keep case numbers down in general. We can’t keep going along with letting it spread to the extent we have been doing, especially with a more infectious strain we just can’t keep it under control at a certain level.

It was always going to be worse during the winter.

I feel scared but I think this was how they wanted the message to come across. Almost making us petrified to leave our homes and I need to get out with the dc for exercise everyday or it will be hell. If we have to isolate obviously we will stay in. But 10 days in my flat with the dc will be a nightmare. As one has asd and gets hyper if not run off.

I need to go to the bank but i am putting it off as my branch is in town centre. I am almost terrified of going in shops now. I am currently in T2 but have a T4 in next area. So will not be surprised if we move up to T 3 or 4 shortly.

@Flaxmeadow

This new variant has been around since September but was conveniently highlighted by the government yesterday to cover up their failings.

It was noted at the end of Septemebr but that doesn't mean anyone knew the significance of it. It's only very recently that it's become a serious concern.

The idea that science and government have held back information or colluded to spoil Xmas day is ridiculous

Agree entirely

Ditto other countries responding with shutting flights

@loulouljh

Project Fear....ramp it up so people have the vaccine...I think its a ore-determined script here.

Oh god. Not this shit again. Did you vote for Brexit too?

@Flaxmeadow

This new variant has been around since September but was conveniently highlighted by the government yesterday to cover up their failings.

It was noted at the end of Septemebr but that doesn't mean anyone knew the significance of it. It's only very recently that it's become a serious concern.

The idea that science and government have held back information or colluded to spoil Xmas day is ridiculous

Could this be why the recent spike in cases hasn't led the the expected increase in deaths.

I don't think government has any choice atm, without certain knowledge, but to try and reduce the spread, but if the new strain is less dangerous, that's good news.

But surely if it's less deadly that's a good thing. I mean realistically if it's "like a cold" what's the point of a lockdown? Most of us can cope with a cold. Surely if it's less of a risk to most healthy people, should we not be aiming to shield the vulnerable and for everyone else to get it and have it done with?

I know you cannot 100% shield the vulnerable but you could do a lot more than were doing now

I suppose they don’t know yet as the new strain hasn’t hit enough people who are usually vulnerable?

I’m very much hoping it is milder that would be the good thing.

Amen to that @TrustTheGeneGenie

i hope people are not mixing generations at christmas,

I think they are actually being honest for once.

Yesterday BJ actually seemed the most serious I've ever known him to be and delivered the message well. (Still can't stand him!)

They are saying this isn't thought to more virulent (which would be a good scare tactic to even just not say either way) but it is highly transmissible which they've been honest about.

I think the only thing they may not say is if this is proven to be less fatal because that may change people's behaviour for the worse when's it's far more transmissible.

But if it is less fatal we should be allowed to change our behaviour shouldn't we?

It's it going to mutate so much it literally is a cold and kills less people than flu, but we're all still going to be hiding indoors because omg it's spreading faster?

But surely if it's less deadly that's a good thing.

Of course it is

I mean realistically if it's "like a cold" what's the point of a lockdown?

Because we do not know about whether the mutation has made the strain moe or less deadly.

Typically viruses mutate to be moe contageous and less deadly over time because there is a reproductive advantage in the virus mutating thus.

However this is a novel virus, with an even more novel mutation and nobody can predict the exact effects of the mutation so it makes sense to be extremely cautious.

The so called "Spanish flu" of 1918 mutated to become less deadly but only after it had mutated to become more deadly.

It makes absolute sense to plan for the worst while hoping for the best.

Being careless in the 11th hour with amazing vaccines poised to change the game is not a good strategy

@TrustTheGeneGenie

But if it is less fatal we should be allowed to change our behaviour shouldn't we?

It's it going to mutate so much it literally is a cold and kills less people than flu, but we're all still going to be hiding indoors because omg it's spreading faster?

Of course not, once we know it's less deadly we can change our behaviour. ATM, we just think it's less deadly. It would be irresponsible to assume and let it run riot before we know for sure, regardless of how likely it is.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

But if it is less fatal we should be allowed to change our behaviour shouldn't we?

It's it going to mutate so much it literally is a cold and kills less people than flu, but we're all still going to be hiding indoors because omg it's spreading faster?

Yes We just need to know for sure

When did Whitty say the cold thing?

I would always listen to the scientists, as pp say.
Some things that our 'libertarian' (not about freedom of movement etc in the EU though) government feel compelled to do now are slightly worrying - closing non-essential retail, the hospitality sector etc - which they are always reluctant to do (donors) does seem a tiny red flag though. Plus the fact that although the UK seems happy to export this new strain around the world without any restrictions or prevention of non-essential travel, other countries don't seem so keen on this new strain and are stopping us travelling to them.

Im scared and heartbroken. I have in the last few days lost a very dear school friend, fit, healthy and under 50. Friend had a diagnoses and was turned away from hospital. Im being careful not to give to many details incase their family members are on here as i don't wish to cause any distress by revealing to many details. Im a bit all over the place in shock. Im scared, angry and heartbroken all in one.

Matt hancock said on the news this morning they have done some research which has shown it isn’t more deadly but sadly not less deadly either

I assume they need more information on it, also I assume it can still hit the vulnerable hard. But once they are vaccinated then yes I would assume it can be treated more like a cold.

The new strain in South Africa doesn’t seem to the same

I think the only thing they may not say is if this is proven to be less fatal because that may change people's behaviour for the worse when's it's far more transmissible

also they simply don't know about any changes in terms of the likelihood of the virus causing hospitalisations and deaths

I initially misread your post and thought you might be commenting on the virus mutating in such a way as to change human behaviour, thus making the virus easier to transmit

Many viruses change the behaviour of the host (rabies being one of the best known examples) and it is entirely possible that the virus has mutated to change human behaviour to become more risk taking and seek the company of others, which would make it more likely to be transmitted without changing the protien spike

It has always been about protecting the nhs from being overwhelmed . Whatever the idiots think about that not being an issue, it's just the flu, but what about my rights etc

This is possibly a major change to the chance of that happening. Of course it's important