Could school Christmas holidays counter balance more household mixing ?

[shinynewapple2020]

Does anybody think it's possible that any expected rise in Covid cases due to household mixing over Christmas could be counter balanced by schools being closed for two weeks, and that the rise in cases may not be as much as feared ?

Given it appears that one of the reasons cases are either rising, or, not going down as fast as hoped in other areas , is due to the number of cases within schools . If schools are closed for two weeks over Christmas then this should help reduce cases . And many people are saying they are just going to celebrate within their immediate family .

(Note this is no judgement on schools open or not; or households mixing or not. I see both sides in either case )

I think the infection rate in secondary school kids will go down, but the infection rate in other age groups will go up.

It's worrying that some of those age groups will be the more vulnerable ones.

I wonder if Christmas will actually have less impact than we're allowing for. I think a lot of the Christmas panic is based on the assumption that extended families aren't mixing, and actually I think they are. My part of the world was very observant even up to a few months ago, but its noticeable how many people now cheerfully admit to popping into their mum's or whatever. And lots of people I know mix households for things like childcare or lifts here & there or whatever, even if they're not technically meant to. So yes they'll see family members on Christmas Day, but actually they've been seeing family members pretty regularly since September. And on the other hand lots of more 'Covid cautious' people aren't doing anything at all for Christmas, while the people who REALLY don't give a shit and plan on having sixteen people round are already out there not giving a shit on a day to day basis. The one family I know who really are going all out definitely aren't sat at home in the normal run of things! So it might actually balance out, given there'll also be reduced public transport commuting and more people off work. Cases will rise, because its winter and a new virus and we've just lifted a lockdown blah blah, and there'll probably be another bloody lockdown in the new year whatever, but I wonder if the Christmas factor will be all that big. But who knows????

I think there will be an element of counterbalance, yes.

I think all those infected but asymptomatic will infect family members. Wish they’d given the option to keep dc home this week to families who could so less would be in school.

No, I don’t think that.

I think all the covid that is brewing within schools will now spread massively as they spend 5 days mixing indoors with family members across the country that they haven’t seen for months.

I predict that mid/late January will probably be a complete mess.

There may not be a rise in cases overall.

But I think it's likely there will be a rise in older age groups and a decrease/plateau in younger age groups.

Unfortunately older age groups are more likely to need hospital treatment than younger ones, so this doesn't really count as a counter balance.

@m0therofdragons

I think all those infected but asymptomatic will infect family members. Wish they’d given the option to keep dc home this week to families who could so less would be in school.

Hopefully some that could did. We kept ours off and I know lots of others who have.

We told the school and they had no issue with it.

I was really hoping there may be some counter balance as a PP pointed out I think those that are mixing over Christmas probably are already mixing anyway.

No, what will happen is; all those infected kids will spread it around their Grandparents, Aunts, Uncles, Cousins, etc. Just about the right incubation period too. Testing will decrease and show a drop because no-one wants to isolate over Christmas.

Then a week later, all those family members they infected will start showing symptoms, the older ones will take a a few weeks to get really ill or die. I do not say this flippantly as I have a family member in hospital who is close to death from COVID (50’s).

Then all those infected cousins, step siblings, etc, etc. That have been infected will take it back to their schools. Schools will be a hotbed again by mid January by which point the hospitals will be rammed and we will be in the shit.

That won’t stop everyone twisting the false decline in the holidays though.

You heard it here first.

Yes, I do think schools being off will offset the rise in infections from Christmas mixing. I think somewhereEast is also right in that a lot of people are already mixing with others already. I am one of these. During 1st lockdown we observed the rules for the 1st 6 weeks, after that in-laws invited us into their garden for a cup of tea. We have seen them every week since, initially outdoors and then gradually indoors as well. We continued to visit during second lockdown in November. Same with my sister in law and brother in law. We have been to see them, and them us. On a few occasions we have all been together in the same house at the same time. They are all coming to me for Xmas day and we are all going to in laws Boxing Day. There are 12 of us including the children. None of us however have seen anyone else outside of work / schooI. We have reserved our social contacts throughout to us family. I have not seen my best friend since February. Yes , there is still a risk but one we have all assessed and decided is worth taking. Any of us are free to change our minds at any time.

No, I don't because I actually don't think schools are the hotbed of transmission they're made out to be. I work in one, so not entirely without experience.

Of course, in areas where there is a lot of Covid in the community, there's going to be a lot of it in schools, but I don't think it's been transmitted within schools as much as it will be if those same children are free to mix in the community. The contact they have with each other at school is different to when they're together out of school and while they're in school, they're seeing the same people week in week out. It moves out of their bubbles with social household mixing.

We shall see of course, but I don't think closing schools for a couple of weeks will see reduction and I'm worried it actually makes things worse. It depends how compliant families are during the holiday of course, but if people are as gung ho as they seem to be on here, I think things will be worse than if they'd stayed in school.

None of us however have seen anyone else outside of work / schooI. ... Yes , there is still a risk but one we have all assessed and decided is worth taking.

And have you assessed the risk to everyone at work/school of all your mixing? Or will you be isolating after your big Christmas meetup?

No, I don’t think so because in terms of the effects we see...people getting ill, people needing hospital care, positive tests due to symptoms, time off work etc....the infection of adult relatives over Christmas will be more marked that infections in schools. Infections in schools filter up the generations anyway but this will be an acceleration of that.

It might offset the numbers but instead of the young catching it who don't get ill, it's going to be the grannies and grandpa's who do. I think it's going to be a disaster.

No, there may be a small drop in school aged cases if parents don’t allow them to mix socially but a different age group will rise because of the mixing.

How many will decide to have more than three households? How many will carry on mixing before and after? New year parties etc.

I can’t see a third lockdown not happening when people don’t isolate after and head back into work and schools.

My sons' secondary schools are rife with cases, 10%in one form. So outside of school, would children encounter 3 in 30 people with CV in a confined space with no face masks or ventilation sat side by side.

I think my DC are more at risk at school, although one caught Covid there and had six isolations, but the a static child hasn't had it yet as far as we are aware.

Agree with pp that the cases in school children might decrease, but other groups may see rises.

asthmatic

And a disaster for schools in January and February. I'm actually quite annoyed about it. My year 11 DS has already had 5 weeks self isolation this term and I predict he'll barely in school after Christmas because it will be even more rife by then due to people not understanding Christmas bubbles.

@RedskyAtnight

None of us however have seen anyone else outside of work / schooI. ... Yes , there is still a risk but one we have all assessed and decided is worth taking.

And have you assessed the risk to everyone at work/school of all your mixing? Or will you be isolating after your big Christmas meetup?

Both myself and sister in law work in the same school. My dh and brother in law wfh. The in laws are retired. The in laws are the ones most at risk in our arrangement so no we will not be isolating after Christmas. I saw the in-laws last weekend and see sil every day at school so don’t think isolating in our particular set of circumstances changes the risk for anyone else.

I hope you’re right but using the glitter analogy, at the moment a lot of children in school have glitter on their hands. Sadly it’s invisible so we don’t know who has it. They aren’t social distancing at school so the glitter is getting passed to their friends and teachers. Who are then taking it home. But because no one is mixing inside there’s no one else to pass the glitter on to.

But next week, all those people with glittery hands will be travelling up and down the country and into other houses. Taking their glitter with them and passing it anyone they see inside a house.

@SnowySheep

No, I don't because I actually don't think schools are the hotbed of transmission they're made out to be. I work in one, so not entirely without experience.

Of course, in areas where there is a lot of Covid in the community, there's going to be a lot of it in schools, but I don't think it's been transmitted within schools as much as it will be if those same children are free to mix in the community. The contact they have with each other at school is different to when they're together out of school and while they're in school, they're seeing the same people week in week out. It moves out of their bubbles with social household mixing.

We shall see of course, but I don't think closing schools for a couple of weeks will see reduction and I'm worried it actually makes things worse. It depends how compliant families are during the holiday of course, but if people are as gung ho as they seem to be on here, I think things will be worse than if they'd stayed in school.

And this is my concern. I've argued on other threads about the household mixing over Christmas being different and riskier than the mixing in schools, but was told I was wrong. It'll be the young coming into contact with the old that's going to screw us up. And I really don't believe that most people in a full house with extended family 27/7 over Xmas will be distancing, not sharing chocolates, not playing board games etc. Some will, I know, but again on here, people have suggested precautions such as that are "crazy"

It going to be a disaster

@FoodDrive

I hope you’re right but using the glitter analogy, at the moment a lot of children in school have glitter on their hands. Sadly it’s invisible so we don’t know who has it. They aren’t social distancing at school so the glitter is getting passed to their friends and teachers. Who are then taking it home. But because no one is mixing inside there’s no one else to pass the glitter on to.

But next week, all those people with glittery hands will be travelling up and down the country and into other houses. Taking their glitter with them and passing it anyone they see inside a house.

A national glitter globe!

And I really don't believe that most people in a full house with extended family 27/7 over Xmas will be distancing, not sharing chocolates, not playing board games etc

I’m betting they are more likely to whack the heating up or throw another log on the burner than open the patio doors for good ventilation over Christmas as well.

Luckily I’m in a Government approved support bubble which means that COVID / the glitter can’t transfer between me, my parents, my in laws, my brother and my sister’s family.

Schools may be shut over Christmas but during the last couple of weeks in particular they will have driven up rates in the community so much that even small amounts of Christmas family mixing and other socialising will keep it rising.
The Government’s insistence on keeping all children in school right to the end of term (and rejecting rota systems, blended learning etc) has been disastrous.

It's generally thought that children/teenagers are affected less, but if they're going to swap friends for Grandparents, close elderly/vulnerable friends if family, it makes me sick to think of the consequences. It's going to be hard for those who've decided not to risk family, and I suspect they're more likely to go shopping or a pub meal that week as a treat to cheer themselves up, which again increases risk.