Could school Christmas holidays counter balance more household mixing ?

[shinynewapple2020]

Does anybody think it's possible that any expected rise in Covid cases due to household mixing over Christmas could be counter balanced by schools being closed for two weeks, and that the rise in cases may not be as much as feared ?

Given it appears that one of the reasons cases are either rising, or, not going down as fast as hoped in other areas , is due to the number of cases within schools . If schools are closed for two weeks over Christmas then this should help reduce cases . And many people are saying they are just going to celebrate within their immediate family .

(Note this is no judgement on schools open or not; or households mixing or not. I see both sides in either case )

@borntobequiet

Schools may be shut over Christmas but during the last couple of weeks in particular they will have driven up rates in the community so much that even small amounts of Christmas family mixing and other socialising will keep it rising. The Government’s insistence on keeping all children in school right to the end of term (and rejecting rota systems, blended learning etc) has been disastrous.

I disagree, I think closing schools early would have led to more mixed households over a longer period. Working parents would have had no choice and other families would have treated it as an extended holiday. It would have made things worse IMO.

At least in schools there is an attempt to keep things safe that doesn't happen in homes.

At least in schools there is an attempt to keep things safe

You what?

@RedskyAtnight

There may not be a rise in cases overall.

But I think it's likely there will be a rise in older age groups and a decrease/plateau in younger age groups.

Unfortunately older age groups are more likely to need hospital treatment than younger ones, so this doesn't really count as a counter balance.

I think desperately hope that the vaccine may help here. Not because people have had it but almost every 70+ person that I know has become more cautious now. They're saying "not long now, the vaccine's on it's way so if I'm careful I can avoid getting this all together" So hopefully many older/vulnerable people will scale right back on their Christmas plans and limit contact, which will help a bit.

In all honesty though I think January is still going to be very tough

@noelgiraffe

At least in schools there is an attempt to keep things safe

You what?

Yeah, that was funny.

In the last week my dd’s primary school has had 3 bubbles close in the infant dept through conformed positive cases. Dd is in year 5, she tells me tonight that one of her best friends who was poorly on Thursday and off since then has tested positive (they were chatting on Roblox). So I’m awaiting the isolation message from school tomorrow. If they wanted to reduce transmission to older and vulnerable people they left the schools open far too late. Local school cases are mushrooming just in time for the asymptotic children to give it to their families at Xmas.

In my school we have a lot of measures in place. We've made a lot of effort and it's generally been successful. Very little evidence of transmission in school.

@noelgiraffe

At least in schools there is an attempt to keep things safe

You what?

I was working with a child today who sneezed over the desk then licked the paper we were working on. Then as I was leaving the room anther child licked the door handle

We do our best but it's tricky!!

I don't think that because people or kids who are infected now will be the people passing it on to others over Christmas. They'll pick it up from school and pass it on to family members in the holidays.

In my school we have a lot of measures in place.

Which ones do you think schools that have been massively hit by covid don’t have?

@SnowySheep

In my school we have a lot of measures in place. We've made a lot of effort and it's generally been successful. Very little evidence of transmission in school.

If you haven’t had cases I’m sorry, but it’s luck not judgement. All schools are doing everything they are allowed to. It’s not enough. Thin’ of it this way - if non-distanced contact in poorly ventilated areas for hundreds of people for 5 hours per day isn’t causing transmission, then proximity isn’t a risk. Hooray! We can open up theatres, cinemas, hospitality, everything really. If that worries you, you don’t think proximity is safe, therefore schools absolutely can’t be.

I agree and thought this too.

Also agree with PP that close families are mixing anyway. If a person is rigidly not seeing anyone now they are unlikely to change that for xmas (all the people saying covid doesn't know its xmas and call for the gov to change the rules - they won't mix regardless of rules).

OTOH, a lot of people are seeing a select few family members and will do the same at xmas, regardless of what the gov say/have said.

There will be a good few NYE parties which will cause a bump on the graphs perhaps. But with schools being closed for 2 weeks and people being off work, I actually think we will see a drop in Jan, much like we did after October half term.