I'm more angry with the government about the Xmas relaxation then the schools fiasco

[deckthehallswithginandtonic]

And I'm pretty livid about that!
I live in one of the London boroughs where schools decided to close yesterday, and where the government have bullied them into reopening. I'll be sending my DCs in as none of us are vulnerable and we have no Xmas plans outside of our household. But, lots of parents are angry and confused, and will now be risking fines if they keep their kids off.

But the more I think about the 5 day window next week where people will be allowed to mix indoors, the more bloody angry I get. On Today, Radio 4, this morning, they spoke to one of the Sage members (speaking independently). Yes, mixing indoors is very risky indeed. Yes they expect to see consequences. Immediately after, they spoke to an MP. But of course it's a good idea, and are expecting people to follow measures to keep themselves safe yada yada yada.

As with the beginning of all this, when we could look through what had already happened to Italy etc and plan accordingly, we can now look to the States, and the outcome of Thanksgiving. Yet we learn nothing.

And here we were in a situation where parents had the support of the school to start isolating in preparation for Xmas to increase safety for their families. But no, sorry, not allowed.

ARGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!

"Plus the "don't kill granny" message"

So what happens to this message when Granny is doing childcare. Intelligent virus isnt it?

"And it feels like I am getting penalised because the government kept schools open.
I'm not saying schools should shut or not. I just don't think others should be penalised"

Yes i have been wondering how the childless/child free have been feeling about this.

I agree.

The government is saying schools should be kept open, which I agree with. So why allow for all this mixing over Christmas which will inevitably lead to many school bubbles popping in January?

Honestly I think those with school age children shouldn't really be mixing over Christmas, especially with grandparents. I'm one of them and I'm not seeing any family this year.

Single people/childfree should be allowed to see relatives.

Whether we were in full lockdown or given free reign to see as many people as wanted over Xmas, people will have done what they want anyway.
I don't know anyone who's mixing because the government say its ok too they are mixing because they want too and would have done regardless. This 3 bubble nonsense from the government is just lip service and publicity stunt that they didn't cancel Christmas because they know they don't have the powers to physically stop it, yes they can ask everyone politely to stay at home but they have no measures to physically enforce it across the whole country at the same time.

why are so many so quick to accept that relaxing restrictions over Christmas will result in a surge of new infections? Increased transmission opportunities within families during that period will be accompanied by decreased transmission opportunities in education settings, workplaces and leisure or hospitality venues.

Because getting pissed in the lounge with relatives is not like work
Because those who understand this virus know their stuff

This government is a mess. They have let us down over and over again.

It will re enter schools but again I can’t change that.

It's already rife in schools.

Because getting pissed in the lounge with relatives is not like work

Less people can fit in my lounge than a classroom.

@Hercwasonasnowball

It will re enter schools but again I can’t change that.

It's already rife in schools.

Because getting pissed in the lounge with relatives is not like work

Less people can fit in my lounge than a classroom.

I don't argue about schools, but my workplace is far far safer than a lounge full of pissed family, that was my point.

School is my workplace....

@Hercwasonasnowball

School is my workplace....

I don't think your argument is with me, I wanted 50% school on a rota from the very start to allow for SD.

Leaving schools aside, the Christmas mixing is worse than another week of normal workplace opening as family mixing is particularly bad due to small spaces, hugging, kissing, drinking.

I was responding to the person who said maybe Christmas wouldn't purchases up much.

Purchases = put cases

why are so many so quick to accept that relaxing restrictions over Christmas will result in a surge of new infections? Increased transmission opportunities within families during that period will be accompanied by decreased transmission opportunities in education settings, workplaces and leisure or hospitality venues.
The evidence from Thanksgiving suggests that there won’t be a cancelling out effect.

No its not. The average incubation time is 4-5 days. The isolation period after contact with a positive case has recently been reduced to 10 days based on this fact.
Average is around 5 days yes, but there is still a risk up to 14 days. The isolation period has been reduced to ten days as that should cover the majority of risk, not all of it, and it’s felt that greater compliance to ten days will mitigate the remaining risk after 10 days.

I don't think Christmas will see the huge rise in cases either.

Schools are shut. That's hundreds less close contacts per child.

Even huge family groups will max out at 15ish. Most people won't have anywhere near that many.

I think people have no idea what schools are like. Offices being shut will help a little but plenty of people aren't in offices at the moment. Factory shut downs may help too.

In American states, plenty of high schools are still shut.

The problem with the Christmas mixing is that, even though it is obviously far fewer close contacts than any child has in school, it will be prolonged close exposure. It also mixes people like me (I have hundreds of contacts per week with the most infected demographic) or secondary age children with family members who might otherwise have had a very low chance of infection. Mixing together those that have been in schools this week with more vulnerable people who barely leave the house and get all their shopping delivered is precisely the problem. Of course a living room with 6 people in it is less risky than a classroom of 30 teenagers or a lunch hall with 180 of them but if a couple of those 6 people were in that school lunch hall a week ago and grandma and grandpa haven’t mixed with anyone for months then grandma and grandpa’s risks just shot up.

Good point about factories Herc. I work in one and we close over Christmas and new year, that's standard in my industry. A lot of places where people can't WFH close at this time of year - manufacturing, construction. Hopefully that will make a difference.

Christmas will see a big rise in deaths due to the type of mixing.

The number of infections is unlikely to rise with schools closed for two weeks. But the number of infections is less important than who is infected. The teens who catch Covid at school this week are unlikely to pass it on to as many people so the R0 will drop. But if the people they now pass it to are grandparents rather than classmates then the risk is much higher and the NHS is more likely to be overwhelmed. We will also see the new strain of Covid spread to more areas of the country as people who live in London but are from elsewhere travel back home with it to their families.

I think the government knows that whatever they say will be wrong and have gone for this option of ' use common sense' and 'minimize the risk ' I'm no fan of them at all and I can see why people are angry but if they had ' cancelled Christmas' who would have followed these rules ? Many might have but too many others will not and they know this.
They could have made schools shut a bit earlier but as that wasn't done I'm sure many now think ' I'll do what I like'.
I can see both sides of this argument even though I agree the whole thing is scary and I just hope people are sensible.

Is it not just sensible to see what happened in America and learn from it?

It seems mad to take a risk for currently healthy elderly folks to mix for up to 5 days indoors when there is a vaccine on its way.

"It's a specific kind of mixing that's known to be high risk. Up to three households together, how many people is that? "

Well for 4 months you could have 30 different households mixing indoors with no social distancing and no one cares how many people were getting infected and in fact said it wasn't even happening because it is a national priority.

Now Xmas is a "national priority". Lots of people will get infected due to government policy. This is not a new thing. Happened in hospitals with no ppe happened in care homes, is happening in schools as we speak.

Cases currently in London are only 1/3 of what the north had last month so let’s get some perspective

Liverpool was open throughout and our hospitals were tier 3 - schools were fine

Schools must stay open
You cannot have some schools making their own rules up and causing an imbalance nationally - those schools wouldn’t have gone back in Sept if they’d had their way. I’m in same union as a 6th form teacher and they called for home schooling throughout so be careful what you wish for!

As for Xmas - just use common sense and personal responsibility - we know who are vulnerable so don’t have dinner with them if you’re worried with kids

Don’t blame government for a decision you choose as it’s not law that you have to mix!

Same with bubbles - childcare bubbles etc just shouldn’t be happening unless last resort but many just seeing who they want under that as if being a bubble makes you immune

Don’t get me wrong I’m not worried -I don’t 100% follow rules and I shop and eat out weekly dispite tier 3, but equally my teens don’t mix with elderly, wear mask when out etc - but they haven’t seen their gps for months- because that’s the choice we made.

Rises in deaths will happen but those dying are almost all at risk groups so cant blame government if people choose to mix indoors with at risk members - they don’t have to

I think the thing about three households over five days being a "maximum, not a target" is good to remember but has perhaps been lost in translation, perhaps because everyone is so eager to make the most of the freedom.

Like breaking up on the 18th only gives 5 days to isolate? Well, yes, if you're seeing family as soon as lawful. You could also leave mixing until 27th to minimise the risk - that's 9 days, well beyond the average incubation period of 5 days.

@Ginogineli

Rises in deaths will happen but those dying are almost all at risk groups so cant blame government if people choose to mix indoors with at risk members - they don’t have to

At Christmas, you're right, that is a choice. But please remember that at risk teachers like me are back in school (shielders included). We don't actually have a choice whether we go to work or not. Likewise, CV nurses, care workers, police, bus drivers... Christmas mixing across the country put all of us at higher risk in January when the millions of people who have mixed come into our classrooms, surgeries and buses regardless of whether we have stayed on our own for Christmas.

The problem with Christmas mixing as opposed to schools mixing is it will move Covid from high infection areas to low infection areas (which schools mixing doesn't). And it's more likely to result in people being admitted to hospital. And, really the whole point of containing the virus is to keep pressure on the NHS down. Which people saying "we'll take the risk" are never factoring in.