Endgame

[Username198]

I keep hearing people saying they’re expecting some sort of normality from April 2021 and I really hope I’m wrong but I just can’t see it. They’ve spent all year telling us the virus can be deadly for anyone and young people are more at risk of long covid. On the basis no one under the age of 50 has been vaccinated by March/April (again could be wrong but just can’t see it) how can they start to lift restrictions until everyone has been offered the vaccine?

The ONLY reason we’re doing all this is to stop the NHS being overrun. Once that is no longer a concern, restrictions will ease significantly.

Yes young people will get Covid and a small proportion will get very sick with it. But that will be manageable for the NHS, so we will move on.

@onedayinthefuture

Of course it will get better next year, much much better. I also think we have to be extremely grateful that this virus isn't more dangerous. God forbid the next pandemic presents a highly infectious disease that kills 50% of people it infects, including children. Some perspective is needed.

Finally some sense !!! My dad tells me about polio /measles etc honestly massive over reaction and all about saving the nhs

Yes I know people have died /yes I know people who had it

@minipie

There has always been a risk of serious and/or long term complications from catching a virus, long before Covid. There have been healthy young adults who have developed sepsis or post viral fatigue/ME, from things like chicken pox or tonsillitis.

That small risk did not stop healthy young adults living life normally, and I don’t think covid will either. If they are allowed.

So, by April 2021, if everyone particularly vulnerable has been vaccinated, yes I do think we will see quite a considerable return to normal.

Agree do people really think people will comply for another year ! ?

Furlough ends in March so that is a clue there is no money left

@Loopyloui

Furlough ends in March so that is a clue there is no money left

It's been due to end several times, and they've tried and failed to implement other, cheaper schemes. There hasn't been any money left for a while.

Legal restrictions will be removed once enough of the vulnerable population have been vaccinated, so probably by Easter. There’s no way the libertarian wing of the Tory party (which includes the PM by inclination) will allow anything else.

After that it’s up to everyone to manage their own risks in whatever way they see fit, and for employers to take precautions on behalf of their employees which will probably (in my guess) mean leaving lots of screens in place, but not requiring customers to wear masks.

I do however suspect that masks might remain mandatory for patients in hospitals and maybe GP surgeries forever. (They were already requiring hand gel).

[quote EnPoinsettia]@kittensarecute I’ve no idea how you can call such a thoughtful, nuanced and measured post as the one by @CheesePleaseLoueese “scaremongering”.[/quote]
Thanks @EnPoinsettia.

Gosh didn't mean that at all @kittensarecute. I think things will improve by 2021! It's just that what we might consider to be full normality might take maybe til 2022...

In fact, with the improvement in the summer (lower rates seem to follow the warmer weather, and perhaps half the population vaccinated??) it might look an awful lot brighter by then.

But this is all speculation.

Often in life we tend to see neither the worst case scenario NOR best case scenario.

I think it would have to be a full on worst case scenario to see no improvement in 2021 at all!!

I don't really understand how it will work though as if we go "back to normal" - i.e. packed commuter trains and buses, offices full of workers, pubs and restaurants full, people meeting friends and family freely... That is going to massively increase community transmission and the R rate. Even if the risk of death is low, it is still a serious illness. One friend in her 30s has just been ill for 5 weeks and only just starting to feel better. Another was similarly really ill for over a month, barely able to get out of bed.

Ok, so the most vulnerable will mostly be protected by the vaccine but are people still going to be expected to self-isolate if they get ill or if someone they lives with tests positive? As the R rate will be going up and more people catching covid, what happens when all the staff at your child's nursery is off sick with covid, or all the staff at the vet surgery, or delivery people, shop staff etc...?

I'm done. Can't deal with all these doom mongerers.

The word you were searching for was realists. Or maybe scientists - they know better than you. The ignorance of those who don't understand the science is exactly what will mean it lingers.

I agree OP it’s also a concern to me.
I assume most young people will get it after March. Even if the government recognise the problem with long term illness of many who get it. You can tell from the responses on This thread that the pressure from the public to get back to normal will be huge.

Even if the risk of death is low, it is still a serious illness. One friend in her 30s has just been ill for 5 weeks and only just starting to feel better. Another was similarly really ill for over a month, barely able to get out of bed.

I get it- but we cannot stop society for this!!! Flu renders people in their beds for weeks. Once the risk of those who are dying from this, we have to start returning to a more normal way of life. Maybe not 2019, but something else. We cannot lockdown our lives for an illness that nearly everyone copes with fine. It makes NO sense.

sorry meant to say "once the risk of those dying from this has diminished"

I think some people have never had flu - proper flu.

Anyone who has had the misfortune to have had a 5* flu will know you are bedridden for at least a week and can feel rotten for many weeks, if not months, after that.

I really don't know what the "Endgame" is for those who are majorly shielding (even if not required) and haven't been out since March, and won't have the vaccination . Bil and sil have not been out at all, neither have any conditions - age/health vulnerabilities, and say they mistrust the vaccine. I suppose the hope that everyone will have the vaccine so they don't have to, but this is not a short-term strategy.

Even if the risk of death is low, it is still a serious illness.

Anecdotes aside, for the majority of people - and the overwhelming majority of people under 40 - is not a serious illness. Yes, a small minority of otherwise healthy young people will become very ill with Covid but we cannot put society and the economy on hold indefinitely for that reason.

I think some people have never had flu - proper flu.

Anyone who has had the misfortune to have had a 5 flu will know you are bedridden for at least a week and can feel rotten for many weeks, if not months, after that.*

I agree with this.

I think the problem is that people often label a bad cold as 'flu' even though it probably isn't actually flu. Post-viral syndrome didn't start with Covid.

@IcedPurple

Even if the risk of death is low, it is still a serious illness.

Anecdotes aside, for the majority of people - and the overwhelming majority of people under 40 - is not a serious illness. Yes, a small minority of otherwise healthy young people will become very ill with Covid but we cannot put society and the economy on hold indefinitely for that reason.

Exactly. It is not a serious illness. Yes, some young people die from it. 11 million people, of all ages, die from infections of all sorts every year - it's a very common cause of death. It seems that people just aren't aware of that at all and consider death from infection to be rare. It's not.

@DianaT1969

Thousands of younger people are catching it every week now. That isn't stopping them going to school, or playing with their friends, or meeting in bars. Long Covid? It's a real concern and I think funds and research will be thrown at that next. But it doesn't overwhelm the NHS. So no need to shut down the economy for it.

There should be choice involved.

If you're a younger adult who hasn't had the vaccine then you can stay at home if that's what you wish. Obviously this is dependent on the job you have. Many will want restrictions lifted anyway.

I'll continue to be cautious and hope my workplace keeps some measures in place.

@UnseenDoreen

I'm of the opinion that nearly ALL under 40s do not need vaccinating - it is a waste. The Govt and media have done a good job of scaring everyone rigid. This utter paralysis of a normal healthy youngish adult is worrying. Once the older and more vulnerable populations have been vaccinated, it should start to ease.

Maybe a lot of these under 40s have friends their same age who have been knocked for six by Covid.

A friend of mine died a long, slow, horrific death from the cold sore virus (herpes simplex). I have that virus. I don't worry about it because there's no point.

Being terrified of a virus that you have almost 100% chance of surviving, to the extent that you'll damage your own life and the lives of others to avoid it, isn't sensible or rational.

@IrmaFayLear

I think some people have never had flu - proper flu.

Anyone who has had the misfortune to have had a 5* flu will know you are bedridden for at least a week and can feel rotten for many weeks, if not months, after that.

I really don't know what the "Endgame" is for those who are majorly shielding (even if not required) and haven't been out since March, and won't have the vaccination . Bil and sil have not been out at all, neither have any conditions - age/health vulnerabilities, and say they mistrust the vaccine. I suppose the hope that everyone will have the vaccine so they don't have to, but this is not a short-term strategy.

I have and it's why I have a flu vaccine every year.

I'll continue to be very cautious until I've had a Covid vaccine.

Maybe a lot of these under 40s have friends their same age who have been knocked for six by Covid.

Statistically, that's rather unlikely.

The daily carbuncle, I assume you mean 11 million people worldwide die of infections every year?

@Ninbuscl

The daily carbuncle, I assume you mean 11 million people worldwide die of infections every year?

Yes - via sepsis. 48.9 million (estimated, probably higher) cases a year, 11 million deaths, 2.9 million in children in under 5. People who survive often have long term debilitating effects - organ damage, loss of extremities/limbs etc.

0.14% of world population if you 11 million is true.
Not saying that’s a small or large number - just working it out for context

People will have to evaluate their own risk after restrictions end. Obviously they will need to return to work if required but they can stick to ordering online and not socialising if they want to. I assuming younger cev adults and cev children will have been vaccinated.