To not understand where all the Covid cases are coming from

[nomorecrumbs]

16,000+ cases a day can’t just be the result of the virus circulating in schools, care homes, universities, factories and those breaking social distancing rules surely?

Does anyone else find this an extraordinarily large number - I can’t get my head round it? Perhaps very naively I thought the virus would have burned itself out by now, and it would have infected every social group and setting possible. But maybe I say that as I see the same four people week in, week out...what are other people doing to ensure it is spreading to so many new people every day?

Isn't the school population about ten million? And all of those have families etc.

DH goes to a workplace with hundreds of others.

There are millions of people who still see many people during their day to day lives. This is why working class areas have been more affected: typically they involve more people going to work in a non-home location and mixing.

If I get it otoh, out must have come from DH or DC.

DDs school had one year group bubble pop just over 2 weeks ago. One child tested positive so the whole year was sent home. However siblings of children in that year were still attending school, their parents were still allowed to leave the house to go to work, do shopping, etc. Only the child who has had contact needs to isolate.

Since then 3 more classes have had DC with a positive test.

I know of 1 teacher (who had one covid case in her class) who has now also tested positive, a few more children within the bubbles have tested positive, 2 parents that I know of have tested positive. I am sure there are more who are either asymptotic or not advertising their positive test all over Facebook.

It's easy to see how it spreads, schools can prioritize handwashing, etc but all you need is for one person (who may not be showing symptoms) to be sitting in a classroom with 30 children, plus teachers, plus teaching assistants - then think of all those people who all of them might potentially come into contact with, etc and you can see how numbers rise

16,000 is a miniscule fraction of the population. At that rate it would take over 11 years to infect the entirety of the UK population.

Even if it was 100,000 cases a day we'd be looking at the best part of 2 years.

16,000 is not a large number at all considering the UK population. Especially since schools, universities, and many other places are now operating.

I had a hospital appointment late Friday in East London, DH drove me (not allowed to drive after appt and wanted to avoid public transport) seeing Shoreditch high Street Friday evening you wouldn't even know there was a pandemic going on

I think it's minuscule, there are 56 million people in England it's nothing compared

It’s in the hospitals, people get admitted for something else and get Covid.

It’s in the schools and it’s in those still mingling. It’s a virus it’s everywhere

And the lockdown rules are bullshit, my brother in law still went for his traditional London pub crawl with a mate, they just “ate” 8 meals!

DD tested positive last week as part of the university screening for students going home for Christmas. She has had no symptoms & has a public facing job so goodness knows how many people she passed it on to before finding out. Mind you 16,000 is a small percentage. It's still the case that 90% (ish) of those with symptoms don't have it.

It's very infectious - between 2 and 3 times as infectious as flu. Takes a lot to extinguish an epidemic of a virus this infectious.

16000 seems like a lot (the real number is undoubtedly higher) but it's low enough that many people may not personally know of a currently active case (in real life, ie in their neighbourhood). But because infections tend to cluster, if you know of one case, there is a good chance that you know of several.

There are around 33,000 schools in the UK.

My child's form currently has three cases. His school has dozens of active cases. Multiply this by other schools hit hard and it's easy to see.

And I know it's 16k per day OP, but schools I work with are typically having 2-3 cases per day in students. And that doesn't include all the staff infected.

It's time we got some honest data on schools.

Virus gonna virus

You can’t hide from it. It’s everywhere.

It's schools - secondary mainly. They should have shut them last week.

Have you not seen how busy the roads are? Everybody's out and about

I go to work on busy public transport and work on public transport. You wouldn't have believed there was a lockdown 2 last month. Construction workers were ubiquitous alongside keyworkers. We were busy! Husband is in logistics in an airless sorting office with 30 others. Five cases. But his firm won't deep clean the premises because of cost. I really don't think some employers give a shiny shit about coronavirus.

16,000+ cases a day can’t just be the result of the virus circulating in schools, care homes, universities, factories and those breaking social distancing rules surely?

Of course it can, as we know this virus spreads in the air, you could be in a virtually empty supermarket and someone who has just left could leave enough virus by aerosol for you to get infected by breathing, South Korea have published studies on the transmission patterns in restaurants and one showed someone got infected from being in the air con flow 20 odd feet away from the infected diner.
Those nearby didn't get infected as they were not in the airflow.
Imagine this in every place people go......

Not sure why you thought this would just die out as historically vaccination is the only way out...

Mostly hospitals- both staff and patients in our local one getting infected and must be the same nationwide.
Schools (very much think they should stay open though!), partly because kids generally only get something that indistinguishable from any sort of mild seasonal virus and there are lots of those around too.
People understandably mixing with extended families because they have to for childcare/elderly care, or because they really just want to see their families.
Young people- college and university students.
And also workplaces where you can’t avoid mixing with people.
You can’t really prevent most of these.

Schools. Lockdown with open schools was utterly pointless. Should have saved the economy and closed the schools

We hadn't seen my husband's sister since this time last year and our first "outing " since March was a couple of days ago when we arranged to meet outdoors for a coffee and to exchange Christmas presents. We were talking about Covid and she was telling us that her friends had it. She said "The problem is I don't know what the incubation period is. I had lunch at the pub with them 2 weeks before, then the next day I went to see my other friend, then that afternoon she was going to see her brother and sister in law". She thinks she is following Covid rules. There will be millions like her who think they are following all rules, but really aren't. And that, @nomorecrumbs, is how it's spreading.

Lots of school cases here, lots of people not isolating while waiting for test results = more spread

It’s a virus doing what viruses do.

Restrictions do work (compare the rate of deaths in the spring to now and it’s much, much slower) but we haven’t had the kinds of restrictions in place to even come close to eradicating it.

Restrictions don’t equal zero spread no matter how careful people are. It’s not fair to try and blame people and try and cast them as rule breakers. The large majority of infected people are just massively unlucky.

Google the Swiss cheese model.

@PiccalilliChilli

I go to work on busy public transport and work on public transport. You wouldn't have believed there was a lockdown 2 last month. Construction workers were ubiquitous alongside keyworkers. We were busy! Husband is in logistics in an airless sorting office with 30 others. Five cases. But his firm won't deep clean the premises because of cost. I really don't think some employers give a shiny shit about coronavirus.

If I was in his shoes, I'd be contacting HSE.

Employers have a duty of care to their staff and it seems like your DH's firm are disregarding theirs.

DD’s school had a ‘teachers meeting’ (all teachers unmasked, honestly! What’s the point of bubbles if teachers don’t stay in them too??)
Result was about half the school’s teaching staff contracted covid from that one meeting! And of course it then spread like wildfire amongst pupils and families, so one by one the year groups shut down.
It only takes one person to pick it up and spread it. I can’t believe staff rooms aren’t covid secure and meetings allowed to take place face to face (if they’d used Skype to talk to teachers from other bubbles it wouldn’t have spread like that!)

@Hazelnutlatteplease

Schools. Lockdown with open schools was utterly pointless. Should have saved the economy and closed the schools

A lockdown with an unmovable end date was pointless, we should have remained in lockdown for at least two more weeks.

Infection rates were tumbling pretty dramatically at the time we reopened, even with schools open, and have started to rise since.

I stick to the rules, but a typical day could still include -

1. Bus to work. I wear a mask but doubt this is foolproof.

1. Work in a supposedly covid safe environment - desks are 2m apart, regular hand sanitising, one way systems, buzzers to ensure 2m distance...but with the best will in the world, there are times when I could potentially be exposed - there's around thirty other people in the office.

1. Bus back from work - I've changed my working hours to avoid rush hour so the busses are fairly quiet.

1. Supermarket trip - again, mask worn and I try and keep my distance. I do try and get delivery slots, but as I'm the only person who eats in the household, it's awkward - the minimum shop is too much for one person each week.

1. Delivery of feed/meds - done at a distance as much as possible, but sometime it isn't feasible as the packages are too big for one person to handle or do actually need signing for.

Husbands day -

1. Taxi to hospital

1. Treatment and then often supplementary appointments. Mask wearing but not always in full PPE

1. Taxi back from hospital - mask worn but will be a different driver.

So between two of us, whilst we try and mitigate the risks as much as possible, there's potentially 8 different avenues of infection and we are as cautious as we can be. The steps we take should reduce the risk but do not eliminate it entirely.

Add in say, meeting up to five others outdoors, kids at school, another adult in the support bubble, a busier commute, maybe a meal out even within the same household...all of which are within the guidelines depending on tiers and there's lots of ways it could spread.