To not understand where all the Covid cases are coming from

[nomorecrumbs]

16,000+ cases a day can’t just be the result of the virus circulating in schools, care homes, universities, factories and those breaking social distancing rules surely?

Does anyone else find this an extraordinarily large number - I can’t get my head round it? Perhaps very naively I thought the virus would have burned itself out by now, and it would have infected every social group and setting possible. But maybe I say that as I see the same four people week in, week out...what are other people doing to ensure it is spreading to so many new people every day?

I'm in Liverpool, since we went into tier two, the buses and shops are full again. I have family working in retail and the same people are in every day, so people are back to life as it was.

Where I live people are having parties and drinking in each other's houses. Those people are key workers, retail, social care, warehousing. Social distancing is being disregarded.

If we have the usual pensioners out and about once the first two phase vaccinations have been done and they are filling up the buses that the schools and workers have to use, the infection rates will soar. I personally think that the clinically vulnerable who have to work etc should have been done first.

DD caught it at uni. She visited us on the Saturday, became ill on Sunday evening and tested positive on the Monday.

DS girlfriend was with him on a Saturday and Sunday, tested positive during routine testing at work on the Monday.

In both cases, me, DH and DS have tested negative and had no symptoms of illness. Therefore, it is highly likely that we have already had the virus but been asymptomatic. This means we could have passed it to lots of colleagues and customers as well as people in the supermarket etc.

Same as many other people.

@HikeForward

DD’s school had a ‘teachers meeting’ (all teachers unmasked, honestly! What’s the point of bubbles if teachers don’t stay in them too??) Result was about half the school’s teaching staff contracted covid from that one meeting! And of course it then spread like wildfire amongst pupils and families, so one by one the year groups shut down. It only takes one person to pick it up and spread it. I can’t believe staff rooms aren’t covid secure and meetings allowed to take place face to face (if they’d used Skype to talk to teachers from other bubbles it wouldn’t have spread like that!)

My school's meeting are all via Zoom and we never see any staff outside our bubble.

My school's meeting are all via Zoom and we never see any staff outside our bubble

That’s a relief and how it should be in all schools.

DH got it from work as someone tested positive two days before. DH started off with headache so I imagine most folk are wandering round with a headache unknowingly spreading it. He then got a temp the next day. Two days later my and dd started to get a tickly cough then came the fever. It seems very infectious as dh was in a separate room as soon as he felt ill.

It is also spreading like mad at dds school. The town her school is in has the worst covid rate in England.

I honestly think it is. Or at least if it wasn't then schools have now changed after hearing about cases such as your school.

Schools

@Cornettoninja

It’s a virus doing what viruses do.

Restrictions do work (compare the rate of deaths in the spring to now and it’s much, much slower) but we haven’t had the kinds of restrictions in place to even come close to eradicating it.

Restrictions don’t equal zero spread no matter how careful people are. It’s not fair to try and blame people and try and cast them as rule breakers. The large majority of infected people are just massively unlucky.

Google the Swiss cheese model.

Restrictions only work if people adhere to them though. And many don't, like the woman across the road who has children in primary and lots of visitors, and also goes out to work, or my DSS who still sees friends and doesn't wear a mask, or the young man I saw in my local shop yesterday, who wasn't masked and plainly had no concept of what 2m looks like. I had to ask him to move so I could leave the shop without going right up to him. Pillock.

I had an out-patient appt at a hospital yesterday. It was in a specialist unit in its own building, not the general part of the hospital, but it was very Covid-secure. Temperature was taken on arrival, seats were all 2m apart, hand sanitiser was everywhere, masks were mandatory, and provided for anyone who hadn't got one. All staff were wearing masks, save for the reception staff who were behind screens. I realise that this level of precautions wouldn't be possible in other areas, but I felt very safe.

Its a respiratory virus. Its winter. Its new, so most of the population haven't developed any immune response to it yet. And people are still interacting in all sorts of ways, because we need to keep our society functioning and locking down all winter is impossible. 16,000 a day is almost certainly as good as it gets outside hard lockdown, but then hard lockdown comes with massive collateral damage and we're probably reaching our limits of both money and compliance. Much though I dislike Bojo, I'm also really glad I'm not in his shoes right now, or any leaders' shoes.

Schools I think.

Colleague's child got it. By the time they realised, the whole family had it. By which time he'd passed it on at work. Bam. Four positives in the office (having got this far with none).

God knows what they can do short of closing schools.

@LakieLady I’m glad you felt safe at your appointment, I work in a hospital and we’re all trying our best to be as cautious as we can.

Your personal example is valid, but a significant minority flouting restrictions doesn’t really make a difference other than to their personal risk (and those who chose or have to interact with them). Most projection models for various restrictions allow for a significant minority of non-compliance (around 20-30%) because they take into account defiance/user error.

As long as we have a majority complying tho

Apparently it's surging in London but our government hasn't changed the tiers for over 2 weeks now

Hundreds, if not thousands of children packed into classrooms with no masks and no social distancing won’t be helping.

Posted by accident!

... as long as the majority are complying with restrictions any infection chains arising from the non-compliant should be broken quicker than without restrictions.

On a personal level it sucks if you end up infected but on a wider level the numbers do add up provided the community spread is controlled.

16000 a day means every day one person in 4000 acquires Covid.

I’d like to see a breakdown of the positive cases are estimated to have caught the virus - so we can see the most transmissible settings. I’ve heard stories of people who haven’t been outside at all between September and November yet they still caught it, so I’m curious how infectious parcels can be etc.

I think schools. My DS school had its first ever case on Monday (in ds class). Now 4 others including DS have tested positive and one of the children's parents. There are now 6 confirmed cases from the school and ive developed symptoms this morning.

Honestly, it just doesnt surprise me. My neighbours were chatting to me face to face last week, no mention of any issues. On Friday they told my husband their son had tested positive. On Monday I sent a message asking if they needed anything, they told me they all had it now and were in bed ill.

Yesterday I saw the whole family head out sans masks. In the morning they went and bought a new car. In the afternoon they all went out again and came back with supermarket bags. After that I saw the father chatting to an elderly neighbour with no mask and less than 1m between them.

In the evening all three went out and came back with takeaway bags.

So that's 3 people, all symptomatic, all within a week of a positive test at the most, appearing to go about their daily business.
That is how it spreads.

I only know this because a. They told me they were positive and b. My wfh desk is in front of a window that faces their parking space.

Warehouses. Factories. Distribution centers. It baffles me that the effect on these workers (who have worked throughout) is ignored.
I guess they don’t fit the hero mould well enough 🤷🏼‍♀️

Secondary schools are thought to be the primary vector at the moment, at least in London and the SE.
That doesn't mean it's 'only' schools though. Any close contact between human beings is an opportunity for the virus to spread, although we can reduce that through wearing masks and other precautions.

Not just London and the SE. All over the country. Sadly no one else is having mass testing or being so widely reported in the media.

Because bubbles are an absolute joke and out t&t is useless.

Bubbles are just for track and trace. Schools have many cases as barely any SD, staff swap bubbles and training/meetings etc aren’t all online according to other posts on here.
Lots of children mix outside of school as parents don’t follow the rules, many won’t keep them indoors if they are meant to be isolating etc.

Add in workplaces, care homes, people socialising and it’s very easy to see why case numbers are what they are.

In wondering if our control measures are the right ones.

I've been ever so compliant, I really haven't been within 2m of anyone for ages, loads of handwashing etc and I've just had a positive test.

We only know these numbers because we’re looking for them. If we tested to this extent for other viruses you’d be surprised too. Remember, most people who are infected will be asymptomatic- that goes for colds, flu and all sorts of other things. It’s not surprising at all.