Are there any figures for what the experts expect to happen in January/February?

[Purpler5]

They must have modelled this....

Is anyone aware of where I might find what SAGE et al are forecasting as a result of letting people loose for the 5days over Christmas.

Not that I can find, in fact I found a statement from SAGE that says they can't do it because they don't know how people will behave....!

However, there is this, which is scenarios for how we might come out of the just past lockdown in England and the following few weeks.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/939078/S0904_SAGE69_201118_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf

The graph attached is the medium term hospitalisation projections; we are currently already above the green line, which is the one for R=0.9.

I don't know but I'm dreading it. I work unprotected in a secondary school and have noticed a massive drop off with mask-wearing compliance.

Thanks Patricia

I suppose that's a fair point about not know how people would behave.

I wonder if this means they picked the 3 households and 5 days for reasons other than what modelled data suggested?

It will certainly be interesting to see what changes in tiers happen at the end of next week.

And I fear interesting is not the word to describe what will be happening in January and beyond.

Back to 25,000 daily cases by Christmas, and then breaking records in the New Year with a January lockdown. Hospitals will be chaos by the end of January.

Back to 25,000 daily cases by Christmas, and then breaking records in the New Year with a January lockdown. Hospitals will be chaos by the end of January.

This

Same ☹️

I see where you’re coming from with your predictions, but I was after some actual scientific data...where are you plucking the 25k cases a day from?

Who needs experts and modelling when you have the doom-mongers on MN?

Nobody knows what's going to happen, it's impossible to predict and speculate. Any "modelling" is a pure guess.

Whatever SAGE are forecasting will be wrong anyway as everything else they have predicted, so I would take it with a pinch of salt.

Mumsnet was on the money in March.....

25k by Christmas looks quite a conservative estimate at this point.

Take a look at independent sage on FB. They do a weekly update, and today's highlighted the effect that Thanksgiving has had on Canada (for their version of it in October) and the US. It can be predicted that something similar may well happen here post Christmas.

Who needs experts and modelling when you have the doom-mongers on MN?

@RaspberryCoulis

Who needs experts and modelling when you have the doom-mongers on MN?

Nobody knows what's going to happen, it's impossible to predict and speculate. Any "modelling" is a pure guess.

It's not "pure guess" though, is it. I can guess, you can guess. The modeller are using evidence and research to make scientific predictions. They can't see the future, but they can make a hell of a lot more accurate prediction than we could!

Look at the ONS graph (published today) for infection estimates in London, here:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55275618

That line is not going to start descending even if London goes into tier 3 in a week's time, for the four days (19th-22nd)before Bubble Time.....

I know some expert spoke earlier in the week about people leaving London for Christmas visiting and taking the virus out to the whole country too.

It’s very worrying and I can’t believe that these Christmas gatherings are being allowed to take place.

I think I’m right in saying the natural R is around 3. Surely as a result of Christmas we could risk pushing R up to the highest it’s been since they started properly calculating and publishing it - ie closer to 2?!

I agree the reality is that some families will be saying goodbye to grandparents in January having seen them at Xmas.

Also - true but horrifying thought about the London exodus spreading it around.

Basically, oh dear.

I agree the reality is that some families will be saying goodbye to grandparents in January having seen them at Xmas

True but it’s their own doing. They could make a choice not to see each other so they take the risk. I feel more sorry for people who have been careful who still might be infected due to these kind of people.

@Purpler5

It’s very worrying and I can’t believe that these Christmas gatherings are being allowed to take place.

I think I’m right in saying the natural R is around 3. Surely as a result of Christmas we could risk pushing R up to the highest it’s been since they started properly calculating and publishing it - ie closer to 2?!

I agree the reality is that some families will be saying goodbye to grandparents in January having seen them at Xmas.

Also - true but horrifying thought about the London exodus spreading it around.

Basically, oh dear.

People do tend to go outwards to travel home and yes London is quite high in some parts

Back to 25,000 daily cases by Christmas, and then breaking records in the New Year with a January lockdown. Hospitals will be chaos by the end of January.
Err the OP asked for ‘expert’ predictions not just grimly gleeful guesses from randoms.

@RaspberryCoulis doom mongers?
Let me guess you're not a frontline worker?
Exactly a week after the 7 days of households mixing, I return to my small, overcrowded classroom, wearing zero ppe and welcome my class of 30 children back.

It doesn't take a genius to work out that the whole thing is potentially a huge disaster.
In my shoes would you be full of optimism?

I am a ‘frontline’ worker if you define teaching that way, but I wouldn’t.
I teach 175 pupils a weeks KS3,4,5 and have a mixed years 12/13 (6th form) tutor group. Travel to work by bus
The job had always entailed mixing with lots of people with potentially infectious diseases of all kinds. If I was terrified of ‘catching something’ I’d do a different job.

@Susanwouldntlikeit

I am a ‘frontline’ worker if you define teaching that way, but I wouldn’t. I teach 175 pupils a weeks KS3,4,5 and have a mixed years 12/13 (6th form) tutor group. Travel to work by bus The job had always entailed mixing with lots of people with potentially infectious diseases of all kinds. If I was terrified of ‘catching something’ I’d do a different job.

I'm surprised at that? I'd class supermarket workers, bus drivers etc as frontline.

@Susanwouldntlikeit

I am a ‘frontline’ worker if you define teaching that way, but I wouldn’t. I teach 175 pupils a weeks KS3,4,5 and have a mixed years 12/13 (6th form) tutor group. Travel to work by bus The job had always entailed mixing with lots of people with potentially infectious diseases of all kinds. If I was terrified of ‘catching something’ I’d do a different job.

Just a really odd post, it makes no sense. I've done this job for decades and of course I know I'm susceptible to catching bugs etc at work. I can't recall a time where I was teaching during a pandemic? With strict mask wearing and social distancing outside of work? I haven't lived with my dh since schools reopened, I've certainly never experienced that either. Yes, I may have passed on many bugs to him over the years but was never in contact with any that his consultant advised he needed to avoid at all cost.

'Grimly gleeful' ... as a teacher @Susan have you been keeping up with the news? Yesterday the UK reported over 21000 Covid cases. We still have two weeks until Christmas so that educated guess looks very conservative.

Secondly if you had a modicum of common sense you must realise that teachers in their 50's/60's are at risk of getting pretty ill with Covid - especially men or those who have underlying issues.

Front page of one daily newspaper (?Guardian) reports scientists urging govt to change Christmas guidance. Not that they will....