Are there any figures for what the experts expect to happen in January/February?

[Purpler5]

They must have modelled this....

Is anyone aware of where I might find what SAGE et al are forecasting as a result of letting people loose for the 5days over Christmas.

The Christmas relaxation is utter madness.

Lockdown. Then getting better from spring. At least that's my guess.

@Circumlocutious

Back to 25,000 daily cases by Christmas, and then breaking records in the New Year with a January lockdown. Hospitals will be chaos by the end of January.

You call was spot on there @Circumlocutious

Over 25k cases reported today. Hospitals already chaos in South Wales.

And it’s still only 16th December

Depressing, spread in the South East is out of control.

@RaspberryCoulis

Who needs experts and modelling when you have the doom-mongers on MN?

Nobody knows what's going to happen, it's impossible to predict and speculate. Any "modelling" is a pure guess.

Exactly this.

"Experts" have been out with all other predictions so I would take anything they say with a pinch of salt!

Nobody knows what's going to happen, it's impossible to predict and speculate. Any "modelling" is a pure guess

Do you realise how ineffably stupid that sounds?

@Purpler5

At this point it’s very scary actually...it looks like we’re sleep walking into disaster.

Today’s figures will look especially bad because of the 11k cases backlog from Wales.

@TheEchtMeaningofChristmas

Nobody knows what's going to happen, it's impossible to predict and speculate. Any "modelling" is a pure guess

Do you realise how ineffably stupid that sounds?

Agreed. Clearly clueless

I honestly think modelling is pointless at this stage. I think SAGE types are pretty out of touch with whats actually happening on the ground in ordinary people's lives. I know where I live observance and engagement is sliding really noticeably now, and our area was very compliant in the spring / summer. But of course no one will be honest about it, because we're not meant to be, so the government really has no idea

So its not clueless to say that modelling is potentially pointless, when prolonged indoor social interaction is the key factor in spread and we've massively incentivised the population to be highly secretive about that kind of social interaction. For example I think the panic over Christmas may be oversold because I'm not sure public health types grasp how much people have already been seeing family indoors for months

[quote Circumlocutious]@Purpler5

At this point it’s very scary actually...it looks like we’re sleep walking into disaster.

Today’s figures will look especially bad because of the 11k cases backlog from Wales.[/quote]
I dont think anyone is sleep walking, those who are breaking the rules are doing so in full knowledge and either don't care or economically don't have a choice

As long as there's non compliance and until the vaccine has effectively been rolled out the number of cases will continue as they are and maybe increase

I genuinely don't know what the best plan is at this point

28,000 today.....

Not great is it

I think some cultures (and no I don’t mean anything necessarily to do with religion or skin colour) are just disregarding the guidance and law.

There’s a reason certain areas figures are going through the roof whilst others are not and it has to be a lot do do with accepted norms aswell as socio-economic issues.

@Circumlocutious

Back to 25,000 daily cases by Christmas, and then breaking records in the New Year with a January lockdown. Hospitals will be chaos by the end of January.

Not a bad estimate, except we're already there a week before Christmas!

@RaspberryCoulis

Who needs experts and modelling when you have the doom-mongers on MN?

Nobody knows what's going to happen, it's impossible to predict and speculate. Any "modelling" is a pure guess.

Ah...the old doom mongering.

How many times I was told that when I started the first thread in March...and now the 25k estimate by Christmas you called 'doom mongering' is actually conservative.

Because we're already there a week before Xmas.