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Original poster

When are over 75s likely to be vaccinated?

43 replies

EmmaGrundyForPM · 07/12/2020 02:37

My mum is 78, very healthy for her age, no underlying conditions. She is in a bubble with us.

We live 90 mminutes drive from her. She was due to come to us for Christmas. We both live in Tier 2. DS2 is at uni in a T3 area and also due to come home. She has now decided it's not worth the risk of catching Covid so won't be coming as "it's silly to risk catching it when I'll be having the vaccine 2 weeks later".

She is convinced that the over 80s will all have had their first dose by the end of December and that, as she's in the next category down, she will be getting her first jab in early January. I think she's being over optimistic and that she won't get it until much later in January which means she won't be fully immunised until late February. She is getting very lonely during lockdown, so I dont want to dampen her optimism but I do think she needs to consider that she may not be able to socilose until late February.

I know it's difficult to predict, but how realistic is it that 75 - 80 year olds will be vaccinated in early January?

OP posts:

feelingverylazytoday · 07/12/2020 02:57

No one knows yet. I think it partly depends on the Oxford vax being approved which should increase supplies.

Original poster

EmmaGrundyForPM · 07/12/2020 07:50

I just want her to be realistic. If she doesn't come here or we go to see her, she's effectively not going to have close contact with anyone until she is vaccinated. She thinks this will be by mid January, I think it will be later.

OP posts:

Racoonworld · 07/12/2020 07:57

Not very likely, it needs two doses and the over 80s haven’t even been given appointment dates yet. It’ll probably be January for over 80s and late January to start the over 75s. Oxford vaccine could speed things up a lot but that probably won’t start up until January as hadn’t been approved yet.

notevenat20 · 07/12/2020 07:59

It’s a guess but there are about 6 million to vaccinate before those 75-79....so Feb?

nether · 07/12/2020 08:05

The priorities are

a) care home staff residents (about 500,000 people, may be delayed because of logistic issues thugh range of solutions in sight)
b) NHS frontline staff and all over 80s. Not sure how 'frontline' is being define, but say 2/3 of the workforce - that's 1m people; plus all over 80s - haven't found number for that, but Age UK say there are about 1.6m over 85

So there are (probably) at least 4million people in the queue ahead of her, so I think her time frame might be a little optimistic

There are about 10m in the queue ahead of the CEV - so tell her that as well, as she's still very high up the priority list

notevenat20 · 07/12/2020 08:11

3.2 million over 80 apparently. See e.g. www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

BiscuitsUnited · 07/12/2020 08:14

I think I read somewhere that protective immunity builds up after the first dose so it's not like you're completely immune the day after you get the jab so your mum may want to wait a few weeks until after vaccination to see you all?

Original poster

EmmaGrundyForPM · 07/12/2020 08:23

Thanks.

She's aware that she needs 2 doses a month apart, but is pinning her hopes on getting the first one in early January. I just think that's unrealistic. I don't want her to put herself at risk by coming to us, it's really difficult.

OP posts:

providentglue · 07/12/2020 08:25

If she is in a bubble with you she has been seeing you anyway? Is it because you will be mixing with others at Christmas too?

providentglue · 07/12/2020 08:25

God ignore me I just missed the bit about your D.C. coming home from uni

LabradorGalore · 07/12/2020 08:28

I think she’s being optimistic about getting the vaccine in early January, but I think she’s being very sensible in swerving a Christmas get together with your family and your son recently home from uni.

It will only be a few weeks more and it would be much better for her to stay safe in that time.

And yes the ECV are so far down the list despite some having to still go to work on a daily basis (they advise working from home if you can but if you can’t then tough luck 🙄)

Mindymomo · 07/12/2020 08:37

We’ve had texts from our GP saying they are making preparations to start their vaccination programme in January, although they say it will be the Oxford one which isn’t licensed yet.

Original poster

EmmaGrundyForPM · 07/12/2020 08:42

@providentglue

If she is in a bubble with you she has been seeing you anyway? Is it because you will be mixing with others at Christmas too?

She lives 90 minutes away by car. I've seen her every few weeks, she has either come here or I've gone there. Yes, it's because DS2 is coming home from a T3 area. However, she's also concerned that DS1, who lives with us, is going to be socialising with his friends and also posing a risk. DS1 is only seeing people outside, as per the rules, so I don't think its a huge risk but mum has decided that there's no point taking any risks when a vaccine is so close.

OP posts:

Nc135 · 07/12/2020 08:42

Are there really 6 million over 80 year olds in the U.K.? That’s like one tenth of the U.K. population. That’s amazing if so.

RuthW · 07/12/2020 08:43

I'm a manager in s gp surgery. I would say it's likely to be more like spring.

Original poster

EmmaGrundyForPM · 07/12/2020 08:46

@RuthW

I'm a manager in s gp surgery. I would say it's likely to be more like spring.

Yes, that's my hunch too. I do understand why she wants to avoid DS2 at Christmas but she's now wanting to avoid the rest of us until she gets the vaccine. I just think she needs to be prepared that it might take longer than she thinks

OP posts:

PuzzledObserver · 07/12/2020 08:46

If she doesn’t want to take the risk, and you don’t want her to put herself at risk, I don’t see that there is a problem about Christmas. Lots of phone calls and FaceTime (if she has a smartphone - my 85-year-old DM does and is adding to her skill set with coaching) over Christmas to keep her company while keeping a safe distance.

Your task will be in January if she starts complaining she hasn’t had her invite yet and is struggling to cope. Personally I think the news will still be all over this - there will be updates about how many vaccines have been given and where they are up to in the pecking order. So you will have a good idea by the start of January when she is likely to be called.

FWIW I think your mum is optimistic thinking it will be 2 weeks after Christmas, but you are pessimistic to think it won’t be till the end of the month. I’m in group 6 (adults under 65 who are vulnerable) and I think I’ll get my first jab in February.

PuzzledObserver · 07/12/2020 08:48

@RuthW

I'm a manager in s gp surgery. I would say it's likely to be more like spring.

That’s concerning - Matt Hancock has said more than once they are hoping all of phase 1 will be done by Easter.

Original poster

EmmaGrundyForPM · 07/12/2020 08:49

@PuzzledObserver thanks. Yes, Mum is very tech savvy and stays in touch with us through video calls etc.

I hope you're right about the timeframes.

OP posts:

notevenat20 · 07/12/2020 08:53

Are there really 6 million over 80 year olds in the U.K.?

No. It's just over 3 million over 80. You then have to add on the NHS front line staff and care home residents and staff.

Snog · 07/12/2020 09:03

Nobody really knows and your mum is aware of this I'm sure. I'd just respect her choices.

VinylDetective · 07/12/2020 09:10

Aren’t they offering testing to students before they go home? Surely a negative test would allay her fears? Personally I think they’re going to zip through the vaccination programme as fast as they can. As long as the vaccine is available they’re going to move heaven and earth to get people done. They’re starting tomorrow.

Original poster

EmmaGrundyForPM · 07/12/2020 09:37

@VinylDetective

Yes, I did say to Mum that he will have a test, and also I'm happy to pay for ds1 to have a test but she prefers not to take any risks. I think I'm struggling with it because until a month ago she was quite ok to visit us and for us to go there, as she couldn't see an end to the situation so was prepared to take the risk. Whereas now she doesnt want to take any risks when a vaccine is so close.

OP posts:

Frazzled2207 · 07/12/2020 10:33

Also wondering this concerning MiL.
I'd say February is a reasonable bet but could be earlier or later. My own parents are in the 70-75 category and are just hoping for 'before Easter'. I think the issue is no real clarity on when the batches are going to be ready. Although we were originally promised 10 million in 2020 I understand that won't happen but there could be 10 million in January conceivably.

Original poster

EmmaGrundyForPM · 07/12/2020 10:56

PiL are a whole other issue. I have absolutely no idea how they will.get the jab. MiL is 88, her husband is 93 and very frail, is terminally ill with bowel cancer and also has dementia. They don't drive, are highly unlikely to get a taxi to a vaccination hub and we live 5 hours from them so can't help. I suspect they won't get vaccinated until theres a vaccine that can be administered in their own home. They literally haven't left the house for months, and only see their care workers and their cleaner each week, all of whom wear PPE. So the risk is small.

OP posts:

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