When are over 75s likely to be vaccinated?

[EmmaGrundyForPM]

My mum is 78, very healthy for her age, no underlying conditions. She is in a bubble with us.

We live 90 mminutes drive from her. She was due to come to us for Christmas. We both live in Tier 2. DS2 is at uni in a T3 area and also due to come home. She has now decided it's not worth the risk of catching Covid so won't be coming as "it's silly to risk catching it when I'll be having the vaccine 2 weeks later".

She is convinced that the over 80s will all have had their first dose by the end of December and that, as she's in the next category down, she will be getting her first jab in early January. I think she's being over optimistic and that she won't get it until much later in January which means she won't be fully immunised until late February. She is getting very lonely during lockdown, so I dont want to dampen her optimism but I do think she needs to consider that she may not be able to socilose until late February.

I know it's difficult to predict, but how realistic is it that 75 - 80 year olds will be vaccinated in early January?

Your in laws should be OK for the Oxford vaccine because that can apparently be administered anywhere. It’s the Pfizer one that is so temperamental. There will be a lot more of the Oxford one too.

It does depend slightly on whether the Oxford vaccine is approved. It is just a much better vaccine from the point of view of being able to vaccinate the whole country.

I'd mentally prepare her for a longer wait OP. She's in Group 3, but there are millions who are ahead of her in the queue and there aren't enough doses of the Pfizer vaccine ordered for them. As I understand it, we have 400,000 doses now, with more on the way, but because the Pfizer vaccine has to be kept super-chilled it can't be easily distributed and it sounds like those not at the front of the queue are more likely to be vaccinated with either the Moderna or the AstraZeneca vaccines, which haven't been given regulatory approval yet. My DPs (70s, CV), have been told they should be done by Easter.

I think your mum is being really sensible. It would be a shame to get it now.

If it makes her feel safer to wait I think that's absolutely fair enough - especially with a university age DC. The tests aren't 100% reliable.

Even if the vaccine takes a bit longer than she's expecting, she should get it fairly soon and then will be able to see you as much as she wants. My parents are 70-75 and are hoping for it by Easter.

I think I understand your mum not wanting to take any risks. I feel the same now I know that vaccination is under way and am slowing down to risk being responsible for any kind of transmittion. Knowing that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, no matter how far away, makes it a lot easier to do so, than say in the summer when it was just an infinite length of sticking to rules ahead of us. I mean the risk of your life over one Christmas out of the 80 something she has had so far, puts it into perspective.

I think this is really about respecting other people's attitudes to risk. If she feels unsafe around your DS, then it's not likely to be a very nice Christmas for her. She will be on edge and upset the whole time. I would be tempted to go along with her wishes and then to have a second Christmas when she is vaccinated, which I reckon will be in late January/early February. (There are 6.7 million front line NHS staff and care home people, followed by 3 million over 80s before her).

I suppose the thing is, what harm does it actually do if she doesn't see you at Christmas but then does in, say, late January if it's then apparent that she won't be getting a vaccine for several months yet? I also think she's being very overoptimistic, but it's not like she's committed to not seeing you again until after she's vaccinated, she can always change her mind if/when it becomes apparent that she's in for a much longer wait.

'can't help' your in laws or don't want to? If they are really stuck and facing a long wait, couldn't you offer to drive there for a week and stay in a cheap bnb?

@Welikebeingcosy

'can't help' your in laws or don't want to? If they are really stuck and facing a long wait, couldn't you offer to drive there for a week and stay in a cheap bnb?

There’s always one, isn’t there?!

I just want her to be realistic. Maybe she needs to be over-optimistic to get through the next few weeks? She might be more able in January to face a wait till spring. A lot of us are getting through this by thinking a week at a time and not focussing on the concept that there are months still to go.

@RuthW spring starts on 21st March. I thought over 75s were being vaccinated long before then? Possibly early feb?

@Welikebeingcosy

'can't help' your in laws or don't want to? If they are really stuck and facing a long wait, couldn't you offer to drive there for a week and stay in a cheap bnb?

You're very judgemental arent you? Taking a week off work at very short notice isn't feasible - I'm a key worker. And the cheapest hotel room near them would still come to over £400 for a week. Plus the 5+ hours of driving each way.

@notevenat20

It’s a guess but there are about 6 million to vaccinate before those 75-79....so Feb?

Source pls.

"Together, care home residents, their carers and the over-80s make up nearly 6 million people, and frontline NHS staff a further 736,685"

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/02/when-and-how-will-i-be-able-to-get-a-covid-vaccine-in-the-uk

I am annoyed beyond words that this f... gov can't be transparent enough to actually say who will be prioritized.
"giving top priority to vaccinating the over-80s, frontline healthcare workers and care home staff and residents," (Guardian)

That is millions of people and ONLY 400k DOSES!!!!
I would really like to know if 90+ terminally ill patients will get it or NHS ICU doctors/nurses..

The government has been fucking clear

1. care home staff and residents
2. front line NHS staff and the over 80s

They are not responsible for what The Guardian prints.

They are starting 1 & 2 simultaneously because of the oft-described logistic problems

I thought you weren’t immune until 2 weeks after the second jab. So first jab plus 3 weeks in between the two jabs, plus 2 weeks after second jab = 5 weeks. If she gets the jab late January then she’s looking at early March?