Once we're all vaccinated...

[MissEllaWater]

...or most of us are anyway, do you think that self isolating/track and trace/all that jazz will still be a thing? And fines and so on if you don't comply? I'm not talking about in the next few months, more like in a year or two when it's all bedded in. Surely if the most vulnerable can be protected, we won't need to be quite so vigilant, inasmuch as we won't have to SI for ages if we've been in contact with a positive case?

@psychomath

Yes, of course, that's why I said "virtual strangers" in my post - I presume your family and friends aren't virtual strangers???

Well in that case your original answer was completely irrelevant to RichardMarx's question, wasn't it?

Exactly!

KazzyHoward when people make sweeping declarations such as social distancing being the norm for years, it's natural for others to assume that you mean actual proper social distancing, the sort which means you can't hug friends or family, or sit on the sofa next to them, or at a small restaurant table with them. The sort which means you keep 2m away from everyone you care about, in addition to random strangers in the queue to get into Tesco.

If what you really mean is just not hugging strangers and no longer shaking hands, while going back to normal in the rest of life, then you aren't talking about social distancing.

@LindaEllen

Does nobody realise that we will never be 'all vaccinated'? Do you realise how many people are in the country, and how long it would take to vaccinate everyone? Do you know that this vaccination needs to be repeated at least annually, potentially more often depending on lasting benefit?

We will never be able to get around the whole population. We'll get older and vulnerable vaccinated, plus NHS staff and potentially key workers. Over 60s if we're lucky. But by the time that's done, it'll be time for the next one, and the cycle starts again.

It's just not possible. That many vaccines cannot be produced or administered every single year.

It's not happening.

I'm not sure it is a certainty that this vaccine will need to be repeated annually. Is there evidence for this statement?

I thought SAGE now suspect that immunity from Sars-Cov 2 is likely to be fairly long lasting following a naturally acquired infection. And the immunity provided by a vaccine may be even longer lasting than that ...

I agree that a vaccine may need to be repeated, in the event of future significant mutations of the virus. But, that aside, I haven't yet seen anything to confirm that any vaccine would need to be repeated or readministered as a matter of course, and even less evidence to suggest that any of the vaccines would need to be administered annually.

JVT said recently that that is the very point (length of immunity) he is now looking into... So the jury's still very much out on this one!

@LindaEllen

Does nobody realise that we will never be 'all vaccinated'? Do you realise how many people are in the country, and how long it would take to vaccinate everyone? Do you know that this vaccination needs to be repeated at least annually, potentially more often depending on lasting benefit?

We will never be able to get around the whole population. We'll get older and vulnerable vaccinated, plus NHS staff and potentially key workers. Over 60s if we're lucky. But by the time that's done, it'll be time for the next one, and the cycle starts again.

It's just not possible. That many vaccines cannot be produced or administered every single year.

It's not happening.

We don’t know yet how long protection from the vaccine will last. It’s incorrect to say it will need to be repeated annually. It’s a possibility but we don’t know yet.

Natural immunity (if you had COVID) is less than six months.

Vaccine won’t last much longer.

That’s best case and assuming no mutations of the virus

@Gretnacastle

Natural immunity (if you had COVID) is less than six months.

Vaccine won’t last much longer.

That’s best case and assuming no mutations of the virus

Love that you’re so certain when even the scientists are not this certain! Maybe it might be best to wait to see what eminent scientists who have studied this stuff say? Just an idea.

@Gretnacastle

Natural immunity (if you had COVID) is less than six months.

Vaccine won’t last much longer.

That’s best case and assuming no mutations of the virus

I know someone who still has antibodies 8 months after having Covid (they're part of a research study so have regular antibody tests, plus PCR tests)

@Gretnacastle

Natural immunity (if you had COVID) is less than six months.

Vaccine won’t last much longer.

That’s best case and assuming no mutations of the virus

A recent Oxford study into immunity in nhs staff showed that it lasts 6+ months.

I am bascially, guessing here from a position of not knowing much about it, but I think it will depend on two things. 1. How careful they will be with border control and quarantine, since we can't control what other countries have going on re vaccine etc. 2. How the vaccine goes....so far they are fairly confident it has a protective effect and is broadly safe...but we don't really know much more until it has been out a while. How effective will it really be on a wide scale? Will it stop people being infectious to others? How long will protection last? Etc.

Btw I think we can get more people vaccinated more quickly than we ever would have thought feasible. Effort and expense that might before have been unthinkable to the government will now seem very doable compared to the inconvenience and huge costs of covid infection and lockdown. I do worry about the incompetence of the govt but still, hopeful.

Well yes actually. If some people want to completely protect themselves from covid they will have to stay inside forever. Its not going away, its endemic in our society and a vaccine won't make it disappear. What will actually happen is the most vulnerable (those on the gov list) will get vaccinated, everyone else will get on with their lives with the knowledge there is a small risk from covid, just as there is a small risk from many other diseases. Of course there will be some people who the vaccine doesn't work for, and some young healthy people who get it badly or die, but that is the same for every other illness. If people don't want to accept that risk then they are free to stay in forever, but there is no way I am!

Raccoonworld, this is astonishingly ignorant. Some of the ECV people you reference cannot even have the vaccine. If they go on to catch COVID, it could be a death sentence. Not all of the most vulnerable can or will be vaccinated. Additionally, the ECV may not wish to stay inside forever to completely protect themselves - I'm thinking particularly of someone close to me who has terminal cancer, cannot receive vaccines, and doesn't like staring at four walls all day as he doesn't have that much time left in him. You are over-simplifying a deeply complex issue.

I think the hand sanitizer stations will remain at entrances to shops, possibly the plastic screens at checkouts will remain as there’s not any negative reasons to remove them and keeps staff from being coughed on/ sneezed on/ spat at.

I would like to think people will be more hygienic, but I am in a country that has low covid and have witnessed lots of coughs and sneezing without covering mouths, people quickly forget once things start going back to normal

Year or 2 to be bedded in?
I was under the impression that things would be a lot better by summer 2021.

Additionally, the ECV may not wish to stay inside forever to completely protect themselves - I'm thinking particularly of someone close to me who has terminal cancer, cannot receive vaccines, and doesn't like staring at four walls all day as he doesn't have that much time left in him.

I'm really sorry to hear of this really sad situation, but is someone this vulnerable/immunocompromised not also vulnerable to other illnesses? When someone is having chemo, for instance, it's important you don't see them if you've got a mild cold, and you should be similarly cautious if visiting a care home. For most people in these sorts of categories they'd also be very vulnerable to flu, norovirus, etc so ultimately they'll have to make the same choices about how much risk to accept through contact as they would about other common illnesses.

@Hardbackwriter

Additionally, the ECV may not wish to stay inside forever to completely protect themselves - I'm thinking particularly of someone close to me who has terminal cancer, cannot receive vaccines, and doesn't like staring at four walls all day as he doesn't have that much time left in him.

I'm really sorry to hear of this really sad situation, but is someone this vulnerable/immunocompromised not also vulnerable to other illnesses? When someone is having chemo, for instance, it's important you don't see them if you've got a mild cold, and you should be similarly cautious if visiting a care home. For most people in these sorts of categories they'd also be very vulnerable to flu, norovirus, etc so ultimately they'll have to make the same choices about how much risk to accept through contact as they would about other common illnesses.

Indeed, they are vulnerable to a range of illnesses. I'm sure you'll agree that COVID is among the more severe of those. This person already suffers badly from blood clots as part of his condition - if he were to suffer COVID on top of that, it could be catastrophic. You cannot compare COVID to a cold or the norovirus.

@LindaEllen even if the vaccine had to be repeated regularly, what on earth is the logic behind saying that makes it untenable? Have you not noticed the massive flu vaccination programme we have on an annual basis?

If I had to guess and it was necessary it would follow the same process and those most vulnerable and the largest groups identified as spreaders would be targeted with some availability privately. Manufacture would be scaled up to meet demand, especially once we’re out of the pandemic, then it becomes profitable.

Besides there’s still a good chance that we won’t need everyone to be vaccinated to control this. Every group that is vaccinated provides a level of protection to wider society; economically and from a health perspective.

There is quite literally no reason for making doom and gloom statements like yours. It’s just shit posting.

To those quoting how long antibodies last.

The Isle of Man tested for antibodies in know positive test cases back in about August and already found that some people were showing no antibodies only a few months after being infected (others who had never tested positive did have antibodies)

They found so many had no sign of antibodies that they cancelled phase two of the test as it was concluded to be pointless

[quote TempsPerdu]@ILoveYoga

Or how about we just accept covid as an additional risk in our lives, as we have done with numerous other infectious illnesses since time immemorial? Or like we unthinkingly accept the risk of possible death or injury every time we get into a car?
Rather than condemning everyone to a joyless, regimented, sterile existence.

Honestly, people have totally lost all perspective on this.[/quote]
I couldn't agree more.

Things won't be completely the same for people who know they're vulnerable.

I think there will be subtle changes, driven by choice.

It is sad for theatre and the performing arts, as often their demographic is older people, and there will be reluctance to come and pack out the venues.

I can envisage however that teens and 20s would love to pack out music festivals and, well, get on with living.

The Isle of Man tested for antibodies in know positive test cases back in about August and already found that some people were showing no antibodies only a few months after being infected (others who had never tested positive did have antibodies)

There’s a lot more to immunity than antibodies

Theatre will be fine once restrictions are lifted. I say that after spending two full days queuing for tickets for Les mis Christmas concert tickets (got them finally!). I’ve signed up to a priority booking scheme as I think it’s going to be so hard to get tickets when everything properly reopens!! I think they will have a massive boom after all of this.

Rather than condemning everyone to a joyless, regimented, sterile existence...

I think TempsPerdu wrote this gem - what's the issue exactly with washing your hands a bit more and using hand gel? Calling it joyless and regimented is a little exaggerated?

The only extra hygiene measure I’ve taken is a little more handgel plus gloves at the petrol station. I’ll continue with this to an extent I think. Haven’t cleaned more, I’m not a fan of cleaning and obviously if a pandemic doesn’t make me motivated nothing is going to !

I'm starting to get increasingly anxious about how long things will go on even after vulnerable people are offered the vaccine. And I don't really mean gov regulations--more like other things. Will school bubbles keep going even when the DfE relaxes the guidance? When will I be able to go inside the school, or sit in while my kids have their dance lessons? Are they really going to turn around and say 'yes, we're happy with the risk now, come in'? I worry everyone has just become so risk-averse they won't be able to turn back. Like innocence lost and never regained.

Sorry for being a Debbie downer!

I think that there will be a few very minor changes to the way we live our lives. I think people may be more ready to wear masks on crowded public transport. I think considerate people will do this when they have colds and concerned people will do this during the winter season. I think we will become accustomed to having regular inoculations and we may have some kind of requirement of vaccination to travel to certain countries.

I think we will have more awareness of other potential pandemics and that there will be a couple of MERS/SARS/Bird flu scares over the next few years that receive huge amounts of publicity and come to nothing. This will then lull people back into a false sense of security that all such scares are bogus.

I do worry that the government will somehow use the pandemic as an excuse to "restructure" the NHS in a way that will make it easier for big Pharma to make more money from us, and we may end up with an insurance system coming in, which will purport to bring us closer to the German model, but which will end up leaving us like the US model.

Interesting thread.

I think it is likely that the virus will still be infecting people, as not everyone can be vaccinated, and there are questions to be answered about the longevity of immunity. Also agree we don't know if everyone will be vaccinated.

On top of all that, I think many people will be less keen to get close to hundreds of randomers indoors for gigs/plays etc

I am looking forward to being able to hug my friends again, but I do think I will be more wary of crowds and potential infection for many years to come.