Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

Pillar 2 positivity, back to doing it by region. 06 Dec column hows the latest P2 positivity overall, then the next column excl LFs is the rate if the lateral flow tests are removed (these overall running at less than 0.5% positive). Ranking is based on the overall figure. Positivity differences with and w/out LFs tend to be more pronounced in locations with university(ies) presence.

South East to start with

East of England and London

East Mids and West Mids

North East and North West

South West and Yorks & Humber

17,272 cases
231 deaths

17k is the highest it's been since Thursday 26th. More found down the back of the sofa, student testing, one off or what?

I hope they found missing ones, that seems really high for a Sunday.

It might have something to do with the mass student testing?

Are the NHS lateral flow in included in the numbers? They've been running just over a week in our trust.

@lunar1

I hope they found missing ones, that seems really high for a Sunday.

I wonder if it's people relaxing rules as the end of lockdown neared, papers were full of what we would be able to do wonder if people did it sooner.

The cases reported today in England with a specimen date of last Friday is slightly higher than that reported last Sunday for the previous Friday. Depending what gets reported through tomorrow cases last Friday may well show a slight increase on that for the previous Friday. Which would not be great given the impact of lockdown should still be felt.

With a very low positivity rate for lateral flow tests - so far - it is going to be more difficult to scapegoat uni students this time round.

@Regulus I think you may have a point.

comparing the last two sets of seven day periods (again just in England), over 90 local authority areas showing a week on week increase, with the bulk of those being now in Tier 2

I wasn’t trying to ‘scapegoat’ uni students. I’m just aware that thousands of students were being tested this week so wondered if that might be a reason for the increased numbers.....

As far as I can see, there has been no major backdating.

Wales has seen the biggest increase (in relative terms) - positive cases are up from 802 reported on Nov 30 to 1,916 today. I guess now we know that "short and sharp" actions with the return to status quo do not really work (unless we are in spring and cases are dropping naturally). Any anti-COVID measures at this time of the year have to be sustainable.

A few areas of England (London, South East and East of England) also appear on the rise.

If things have flattened, the 5 day Christmas break is going to look increasingly risky.

Though changing anything now will create a huge backlash....

They could take the kids out of school for 2 weeks, that would get the numbers down a bit more. Especially secondary.

I’m really confused because one of the government dashboards is reporting 17k but the other one (link below) only 15k

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

@herecomesthsun

They could take the kids out of school for 2 weeks, that would get the numbers down a bit more. Especially secondary.

Please not the GCSE and A level years!

[quote BettyForgety]I’m really confused because one of the government dashboards is reporting 17k but the other one (link below) only 15k

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/[/quote]
It's showing 17k to me-are you sure yours is updated from Saturday; it was 15k yesterday?

[quote BettyForgety]I’m really confused because one of the government dashboards is reporting 17k but the other one (link below) only 15k

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/[/quote]
Try refreshing that page - it's showing 17,272 for today.

@Florelei; my comment was intended as a general observation and was not aimed at you - although I can understand why the latter could be perceived. Apologies for the misunderstanding it clearly caused.

No worries @boys3 thanks for clarifying and apologies to you if my response was a bit snippy.

I think students have been unfairly painted in a very negative light over the past few months. Like I say I just wondered if the additional tests for the students to come home could be an explanation but it would appear not which is worrying.

Looking at the hospital data by region, the SE and East of E are trending up again, having been flattish; London is flat, at best. These areas never really went down over lockdown, just stayed flat, but appear to be moving up again now.

Midlands did go down but appears to be trending up again.

I can't see any of that being reversed now we are open again.

What I don't get is the fact that students are not advocating more for themselves. At that age I wanted to save the world. Was part of multiple organizations (political and non-p.) and really was standing up for my generation.
This generation just follows along, gets blamed (rightly or not is another issue) and does nothing.
Not just here, but generally around the world. I honestly wish they would fight back against stupid accusations, making them scapegoats and would take a stance in general.

On the other hand the 15-16 year olds seem to be way more political than I remember being at that age. Will see if they will follow through or if it'll die a slow death as they get older.

Looking at today's numbers, and being out and about I don't think we are heading in the right direction. Mass consumption needs (? wants, as many are actually not needed) will equal flooded indoor spaces like malls, shops. And with kids still in school it's recipe for chaos and disaster. Again: hope I'm wrong.

Anecdata alert : lots of boards on here suggests big problems in schools in new areas this week. DH's school has shit a whole year group down and 8 teachers a are SI, with 3 testing positive. Another school in the town has shut a whole year group. Lots of schools reporting renewed issues. It'll be interesting to see the age groups of infections and schol outbreaks when we next get them.