I'm just sitting here with absolutely no scientific background to back up my thoughts, but I'm wondering if the decrease is more to do with the spread and less to do with lockdown.
Because I'm not sure where you live but in my area and neighbouring areas that I've driven to, the streets are swarming with people, supermarkets packed, and many people I know of are ignoring the rule and visiting friends /family. Plus there's the fact that millions of children are attending school so lots of cross exposure.
The more severe lockdown in March/April which everyone took seriously didn't really have the same quick effect on the R number. I'm sure it took longer to get it down...
So was the Swedish infectious diseases guru right after all? I wonder if it would be wrong to assume that many many more people have actually had it now, and therefore no's are decreasing. I personally know of at least ten families that have had it, whereas in April not any just the tragic stories on the news /this board. I think that the symptoms changed for many (since Sept) more like cold symptoms.
Your thoughts please.
(Can I ask that there's no nastiness on this thread please? Seen too much of it this year on mumsnet. Thank you)