R rate between 0.9-1 could this be why?

[stirling]

I'm just sitting here with absolutely no scientific background to back up my thoughts, but I'm wondering if the decrease is more to do with the spread and less to do with lockdown.
Because I'm not sure where you live but in my area and neighbouring areas that I've driven to, the streets are swarming with people, supermarkets packed, and many people I know of are ignoring the rule and visiting friends /family. Plus there's the fact that millions of children are attending school so lots of cross exposure.

The more severe lockdown in March/April which everyone took seriously didn't really have the same quick effect on the R number. I'm sure it took longer to get it down...

So was the Swedish infectious diseases guru right after all? I wonder if it would be wrong to assume that many many more people have actually had it now, and therefore no's are decreasing. I personally know of at least ten families that have had it, whereas in April not any just the tragic stories on the news /this board. I think that the symptoms changed for many (since Sept) more like cold symptoms.

Your thoughts please.

(Can I ask that there's no nastiness on this thread please? Seen too much of it this year on mumsnet. Thank you)

I think you're forgetting all the additional measures in place as well as lockdown; masks, distancing, hand hygiene, healthcare staff wearing PPE all the time. Plus it spread for so long in the spring because hospitals were emptied into care homes where staff had insufficient IP&C knowledge & no PPE. Plus testing was minimal so it was hard to identify who was infectious. I also remember early guidance that said you weren't infectious until symptomatic, which we now know as highly inaccurate. There was also no contact tracing and effective isolation. All this led to a prolonged spread and with all these plus a lockdown it's not surprising it dropped fairly quickly.

It will undoubtedly surge again a few weeks from lockdown easing

@cbt944 - a challenge for you. Find me a single Government model that doesn't have an immunity factor in the underlying differential equations.

Ooh, fancy! How's about, instead, you address a few of your incorrect statements. For starters:

Can people stop spreading this stupid myth that immunity doesn't exist.

The second wave is massive if you have a tiny first wave, and vice versa. Just compare the Czech Republic (tiny 1st wave, massive 2nd) and Sweden (big first wave, small 2nd).

This is purely down to immunity.

Firstly, you have conflated the death rate with the case rate, for Sweden. The death rate is low, currently, but the case rate is rising rapidly. So Sweden's "second" wave, is not "small" or lower than the first, as you state.

Let's look at this "overwhelming" 2nd wave in Sweden. Looks pretty small to me

Your triumphant graph was for deaths not cases. Sweden has achieved, by general consensus, around 15% immunity at most, after their earlier experiment.

Secondly, see links above re achieving herd immunity without a vaccine.

*Herd immunity is just when immunity builds up to ensure R

A fascinating thread. I was especially interested in the poster on page 2 who talked about blockers.

Can anyone with scientific expertise answer me a question about how other vaccinations can help with the effects of Covid please?

My one son (14) and some of his school year are now a year behind in their year 10 booster vaccinations (MMR and the Hep B/Polio/Dip ones I think). The school did not get to inoculate in March due to Covid, yet his twin (at another school had them in Sept 2019, so the one boy is now behind and school say they do not know when vaccinations will go ahead).

Somebody said on another thread that there is new research to suggest that one of these vaccinations might help protect against Covid, explaining why children might not get such a severe case).

My DS currently has Covid and has been quite unwell. I'm stressing that if he'd had his booster then this might have helped. I'm so worried he hasn't had these boosters and will now be susceptible to those diseases if Covid has caused any long term damage/weakness to his body.

@cbt944

Herd immunity

“ Herd immunity occurs when a significant portion of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, limiting further disease spread.”

“ Herd immunity may be achieved either through infection and recovery or by vaccination. ”

a significant portion

Not 10, or even 15%.

For different diseases, different levels of herd immunity are necessary to limit spread. But it's generally thought with this virus we will need upward of 70% of the population vaccinated.

Meanwhile, I will stick with the WHO's definition of herd immunity in regard to this virus, rather than this generalised description.

Long Covid

From bumbleymummy's link:

Achieving herd immunity through infection relies on enough people being infected with the disease and recovering from it, during which they develop antibodies against future infection. In some situations, even if a large proportion of adults have developed immunity after prior infection, the disease may still circulate among children. In addition, antibodies from a prior infection may only provide protection for a limited duration.

More from her link:

it is not yet known if having this disease confers immunity to future infection, and if so, for how long. A large proportion of people would likely need to be infected and recover to achieve herd immunity; however, this situation could overwhelm the health care system and lead to many deaths and complications

And:

Vaccination creates immunity without having to contract a disease. Herd immunity also protects those who are unable to be vaccinated, such as newborns and immunocompromised people, because the disease spread within the population is very limited.

@cbt944 I don’t think anyone has suggested that we have achieved herd immunity with only 10-15% of the population having been infected. Just that every case is contributing towards reaching the herd immunity threshold and interrupting the spread of infection by reducing the pool of people who are susceptible. Yes, it is estimated that ~67% of the population would need to be immune - that immunity can come from either natural infection or vaccination. In this case, it will come from both.

@SheepandCow

Recent studies have shown immunity after infection lasts 6+ months

Also from my link:

“ In addition, the protection offered by vaccines may wane over time, requiring repeat vaccination.”

Was there a reason you didn’t quote this bit? Are you trying to focus on this idea that natural immunity might wane while ignoring the possibility vaccine immunity might wane too? Why?

I despair.

@cbt944 - you cannot use cases to compare the size of different waves, because of the difference in underlying testing levels. I would have thought this was pretty obvious.

We use deaths (or hospitalisations). Indeed both Vallance and Whitty explained that they is how they calculate R, and why it gives a lag.

The Zoe study is one that uses self-reporting via an app. They estimate the first peak in April at around 2 million cases, and the latest wave peaked at 600,000 back on the 4th November (before lockdown 2 started). covid.joinzoe.com/data

I'm sorry but you don't get to just make up your own science and tell others who have actually studied it that they're wrong about really fundamental concepts. Are you also a climate change denier, or anti vaxxer?

It seems a little to me that the same people that are pro lockdown as long and hard and often as possible are the same people that deny the existence that some community immunity is occurring. I am not sure why this might be as it makes no sense and is counter intuitive to me.
Hard hit areas like London in wave 1 are less hit in wave 2 and this cannot be explained solely by lockdown as lockdown is lighter this time round and schools have not closed.
To me, the way out of this is combination of a lot of people having aquired immunity from having had the disease plus the vaccine for the masses when it comes and/ or some people having both.
I think parts of London have a reasonable level of immunity slowing spread that has helped London in wave 2. But the opposite has happened in parts of the North ( for example)
There are still a lot of people that can still get infected though and the vaccines will come in here (fingers crossed very soon)

Of course we're seeing herd immunity.

Immunity may wane but it exists. That's exactly what we're seeing in London and now parts of the North.

Mitigation may also be contributing. Why are people so adamant that it cant possibly exist?

This was Welsh Government modelling back in October, comparing no circuit breaks vs two different ones.

Why does it predict a peak on the 1st December if you don't have a firebreak? - The answer is because this is the Herd Immunity Threshold.

If it were down to seasonal factors (that somehow perfectly matched normal infection curves), all three curves would have identically timed peaks.

Clealry you can see that with fewer infections due to a circuit-break, it takes longer to reach the herd immunity threshold

All the modelling you see on any Government model includes immunity. I've yet to see one that doesn't, hence the challenge to the science deniers.

I think R is now around 0.71. The lockdown has been a massive success.

@notevenat20

I think R is now around 0.71. The lockdown has been a massive success.

Incredible

I can’t read that is it U.K. or just England?

I'm sorry but you don't get to just make up your own science and tell others who have actually studied it that they're wrong about really fundamental concepts. Are you also a climate change denier, or anti vaxxer?

Is this some sort of weird projection thing? Hilarious! You've just described your own posts. God bless.

@middleager If you have vitamin D supplements give your son some extra for one week, it may help him recover faster. As the virus can linger in the gut you may also want to try giving him prebiotics or probiotics.

Lockdown has been successful in reducing infections and there will be fewer deaths and long term covid as a result. The governments ridiculous attempts to build herd immunity on the sly has caused extra deaths and long term illness.

Lockdown also points to the impact that those areas with high levels of virus could have achieved themselves if they had followed the guidance more closely.

@GabriellaMontez

Of course we're seeing herd immunity.

Immunity may wane but it exists. That's exactly what we're seeing in London and now parts of the North.

Mitigation may also be contributing. Why are people so adamant that it cant possibly exist?

an element of temporary community is not the same as herd immunity? Which is a different issue and has (right wing) political implications?

Community immunity is herd immunity.

I dont think any of us know how long immunity lasts yet. From the disease or vaccine.

Sorry not sure what you mean about political implications.

I'm really just interested in the OP and subsequent denials that herd immunity may exist.

But we don’t know yet if aquired immunity from having had the infection is temporary do we? It’s too early to know surely. Immunity from having the infection seems to last at least 6 months and possibly longer.
What are the implications ( right wing or left wing?) of accepting that immunity exists from catching the disease? Do you mean it may negatively affect uptake of the vaccine?
I genuinely don’t know why people are so keen to play down the positive benefits of some immunity existing in some communities?

I can’t read that is it U.K. or just England?

Just England. I don't know if it's different in other parts of the UK.

It’s interesting that the r rate has fallen so much and cases have fallen so much even with schools open this time?

And yes London just hasn’t been hit as hard this time round. I have a doctor friend in a big London hospital. Feb and March were his worse times. Much quieter this time round. Why is that?

Why had the north been hit harder in the second wave? They were spared in the first wave. We had so many cases in our southern town in March. I don’t know anybody who has been ill this time round. A handful of cases in schools have not spread or taken off.

New research has said there is immunity for at least 6 months. Why deny that? Doesn’t mean anybody is perusing a herd immunity policy. But even at levels of 25% it would reduce the spread somewhat, combine that with other measures and you may avoid huge growth.

It’s interesting that the r rate has fallen so much and cases have fallen so much even with schools open this time?

Yes! I am not sure if R was any lower in the first lockdown when schools were shut. If anyone can dig out that data it would be interesting to compare.