What is going to happen to Bristol after lockdown?

[notevenat20]

Bristol is now at 600 cases per 100,000. I don't know if that is record for the country but it is 50% higher than Manchester and it wasn't long ago when 20 was seen as bad.

What will the govt do on December 3?

Is there a table of cases per 100,000 which is at a more detailed level than "region"? It would be interesting to see if Bristol really is the worst.

Where are you getting 600 per 100,000 from? The council's figures yesterday said it was 471 per 100,000, which is still high of course, but is slightly down on the previous week's rate.

Covidmessenger.com has the info you want. City of Bristol is the 18th highest case numbers in the country so id imagine they’ll go back into tier 3, or a new more restrictive tier 4

I think Bristol is in a pretty questionable set up at the moment.
I’m not far from there and suspect if the lockdown nationally is ended on 2 December Bristol (and the areas around) are going to be classed as tier 3 so nothing will actually change!

Where did you get 600 from? It was 471 in the BBC’s link few days ago. Not that it makes any difference. I suspect 2-3. However the mayor was quite against 2 few weeks ago so he invented the tier 1+.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

If you scroll down to the map on this page, it has a breakdown of cases by reference to quite small areas. When I watched the news a couple of days ago they said that Hull had the highest Covid rates in the country.

Where are you getting 600 per 100,000 from?

I just typed in a Bristol postcode and that is what it gave. Maybe it was for only that part of Bristol?

You are right, it is 467.9 for the whole of Bristol city.

I can't see how Bristol could be on tier 2 or 1+ at those levels. It's the sort of level that was tier 3 in Manchester and Liverpool isn't it?

Covidmessenger.com has the info you want. City of Bristol is the 18th highest case numbers in the country so id imagine they’ll go back into tier 3, or a new more restrictive tier 4

Thank you. That's really helpful.

The Bristol rate is certainly down below 500 per 100,000.

There was an interesting article in the Graun about really quite startling rates in different parts of the city www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/nov/19/the-mystery-of-bristols-soaring-covid-19-infection-rate

If @notevenat20 is looking at MSOA level case rates then there may well be areas at 600+; the article quotes 1365 cases per 100,000 for Bishopsworth.

There is one very high area in Bristol it was on the local news, must be your area OP.

Reckon it'll be into tier 3. Must look up what that entails.

The mayor said that we were going to be going in to tier 2 when they announced lockdown anyway, and has said we'll be in "at least" tier 2 when we come out. I don't think he wants tier 3 because of the impact on local businesses, but it's not up to just him, of course.

But so far as I know, government doesn't just make the decisions about tiers based on the raw case numbers, but also on what age groups those case numbers are in, testing numbers, local NHS capacity etc.

In Bristol, our hospitals aren't at capacity in terms of patients in ICU, but there is a lot of pressure because staff are having to isolate. Hospital staff should be getting more regular tests soon which might help. Bristol is also going to have access to the new rapid tests, and our public health director is currently working out how to deploy these most effectively and usefully. It won't be mass testing like in Liverpool.

Bristol City Council, Marvin Rees and local Councillors post a lot of good information on Facebook if you're interested in the detail.

@boys3 I read that article but I think they missed the point. The students at the university are very likely to have been a super spreader event that has caused the huge explosion in infections. Bristol had very few cases before the university term started. Now it is everywhere it has a life of its own and doesn't need the students to do the spreading any more. Epidemic spread is always more concentrated in some areas than others.

@notevenat20 I totally agree about that article, and thought it was pretty patronising towards Bishopsworth. The article seemed to suggest that "unassuming suburbs" like Bishopsworth are some kind of ghettos and the people who live there couldn't possibly have come into contact with people who work at the uni or with students, so they couldn't have picked it up from the university.

My MIL and a colleague live in Headley Park just next over from Bishopsworth, so I know it fairly well around there and it's hardly the Bronx

Is that just Bristol City or the surrounding villages? Sorry I have friends there, didn't realise it was this bad

They hadn't told me it was anyway.

Back in September we were in 1300 cases. Now we are in 14k. The worse hit areas have been where the students were leaving but of course they’re getting tests more often hence why the High numbers.

I didn’t know anyone til September in Bristol with COVID and I know now a few with it and few self isolating cuz of contact

Exactly. I know several UoB staff members who live in Bishopsworth...

Having seen the news just now, I assume Bristol will be in the new tier 3 which will be just like the current lockdown.

Nothing to do with that 17 hour rave in Yate just before lockdown?

I'm down the road in Bath and initially cases were restricted to students and a few small outbreaks in factories/pubs but there seems to be a lot more widespread now.

It doesn't feel like lockdown here.

I have a friend in Bristol who has delighted in telling us about her social life, street parties and general going out in Bristol whilst we have been stuck in tier 2 which has really irritated me. She also went trick or treating whilst her husband had a confirmed case of covid.
So a horrible part of me hopes she will be under tier 3 and have to suffer the restrictions the rest of us have had to face. But that is just me being annoyed at her recently!

@Madcats

Nothing to do with that 17 hour rave in Yate just before lockdown?

I'm down the road in Bath and initially cases were restricted to students and a few small outbreaks in factories/pubs but there seems to be a lot more widespread now.

It doesn't feel like lockdown here.

Probably not. My neighbour knew about the rave and reported it was going to happen to the police the day before, and they still did nothing to stop it going ahead. :(

I'm in Bristol, I'm prepared for tier 3 restrictions after 2 December. My DC are at secondary school and it's really struggling at the moment. There have been positive cases in all year groups, so many students isolating in year 11 that they've decided to switch to online learning for the whole year group for next 2 weeks.

I don't live in Bishops worth, but next to a ward with very high cases (which is more understandable as it's full of people in overcrowded housing)

I would assume Bristol City at least will be tier 3. Which may or may not be a relaxation of restrictions from now. What I'm wondering is how they will divide up the country as they were saying it might not be by ward/council area. I'm in rural South Gloucestershire. The Bristol suburbs and the Yate rave inflated our levels but in my actual ward, while rates went up, they are now on the way down. I'm hoping we don't have to go into a higher tier because of Bristol, when we never go to Bristol (we're closer to Bath). But equally if they do a regional tier, like 'the South West', would they 'punish' the whole SW for Bristol's high rates or would Bristol benefit from a lower tier? (Not implying it's Bristolians' fault the levels there are high, but it's a fact Bristol is noticeably higher than the other cities in the area.)