'Coronavirus circulating in Italy since September'

[GreenOwlBlue]

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-anitbodies-covid-study-b1723243.html

So, of 1000 asymptomatic people who took part in a lung cancer screening programme, 111 were found to already have Covid antibodies when the samples were tested. Wow.

What I don't understand is how the virus can circulate unnoticed for so long, when we've seen 2 big peaks involving large numbers hospitalised/dying?

Interesting stuff.

@PicsInRed

My question is why was the UK hit so late?

Doctors returned from the ski field to their hospital and care home rounds? Teachers and families returned to school - families visited nana on the weekend? I dont think we were hit late - I think we were suddenly hit hard in our most vulnerable spot, our Achilles heel - our ability to keep our very much loved but highly vulnerable people alive longer than others around the world are able too. And they all died at once.

Most of europe had care home infections & given the issues within social care and that hospitals (the only places where life saving treatment is available) pushed them out, seems an unlikely theory.

I also don't think our society gives a flying fuck about its elderly, neither Lab or Con govnt's have funded the care of the elderly, just more privatisation and higher personal fees.

My theory is that we were just very slow in spotting CV deaths, hidden within a very mild flu season, note - no one seems to be looking at uk sewage samples from November/December, if CV was in Italy France and Spain in December (or even November) it was here too.

DS's school was hit hard by illness mid-December last year. DS had a week off school, more than his combined absences in yR through to y3. I initally reported it to school as a "bad cold", he was beyond exhausted, could barely stay awake 6 hours a day, had a sweat so bad I thought he'd wet the bed, seemed to get better, then got worse. Tried to ring the GP on the 7th day and gave up after an engaged ringtone over 35 times. Core temperature was shot for weeks after (he's a 365 day shorts & t-shirt kind of child) wasn't really right until new year and not on full power until March. DS2 had half a day off feeling shattered with cold symptoms. Over 1/3 of DS1's class missed swimming either absent or excused due to not being fully well.
Goodness knows what it was but it hit him hard and I am open minded.

I strongly suspect that the nasty chest infection that DM aquired in hospital in a major city in Feb was Covid. It didn't respond to high strength antibiotics. She had a DVT scare while convelescing and really took advantage of the first couple of months of lockdown to recover. Understandably at 81 with the complaint that put her in hospital in the first place she wasn't going to feel great and it hadn't occured to her that Covid could be a plausible possibility as it was just before the Italy/ skiing focus.

The Bristol discussion is rather interesting and I recall a thread about it from May. It's interesting how rates have remained low in that region since the summer and high levels of domestic tourism from regions with higher rates. A previous unknown wave increasing local resistance to the virus is a plausible theory.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.23.20218446v1.full-text

This is not the paper I was looking for, but it’s pretty similar. Notably the part about early March being characterised by chains that weren’t in the U.K. the previous week i.e. they were imported during that week.

The U.K. Covid testing for symptomatic people who’d travelled to affected regions started at the end of January and ran alongside surveillance testing in ICU/respiratory centres & selected GP surgeries to figure out levels of community transmission.

Every piece of evidence seems to point away from there being widespread community transmission in the U.K. in Dec/Jan. The vast majority of people that had flu like symptoms at that time probably had one of the many winter viruses that share similar presentations to mild covid.

I came back from a large conference in Kunming in august with a horrible virus, couldn't move for the first few days. Breathlessness and cough lasted for weeks. I'm still fairly sure it was flu but I do wonder. I wouldn't be totally surprised if it was spreading more widely in China in the autumn with a few cases here.

My bf caught it much more mildly but my housemate didn't and as far as I know it fizzled out from there.

I don't believe it was widespread before the winter but I think it's possible it was spreading by November/December

DP absolutely had it, or something related, in July 2019. Identical symptoms and on the sofa for a month. Antibiotics did nothing. It seemed so strange at the time. Works in London with people who travel a lot.

We were only testing people Who were very ill in hospital though in January-April? My doctor friend (works in ICU) had it in March and even he couldn’t get a test! He later tested positive for antibodies. So how do we know there was no community transmission before the end of January if we weren’t testing?

The fact that the first deaths here were people with no travel links means they must have picked it up in the community.

I think there was some low level transmission here from autumn last year. I think there’s some evidence shows it started around August in Wuhan and that timeline would fit with finding it in the sewerage and X-rays in other parts of Europe in autumn. No there wasn’t widespread community transmission in huge numbers then as we would have seen a spike in the death rate.

It spread at quite a low level amongst younger people. We had a low flu year so that masked a few deaths. Then post half term with all the ski trips and Cheltenham and the footie it all kicked off.

or something related, in July 2019

No one knows for sure, as not routinely tested for, but ne working assumption is that OC-43 was circulating last year and early this year.

It's a human coronavirus, symptoms not completely dissimilar to covid, but less lethal and less impacts in terms of involvement of so many body systems

@scaevola

or something related, in July 2019

No one knows for sure, as not routinely tested for, but ne working assumption is that OC-43 was circulating last year and early this year.

It's a human coronavirus, symptoms not completely dissimilar to covid, but less lethal and less impacts in terms of involvement of so many body systems

Is it possible it gave people some immunity to covid?

Is it possible it gave people some immunity to covid?

I was just thinking the same thing.

They do say some of the other recent coronaviruses could offer some immunity.

There is clearly something interesting going on with immunity (t-cells are key I think). Lots of examples of people in the same household not becoming infected despite being in close contact with a positive case.

I think we lose antibodies quite quickly but need to study the role of t-cells as these have been key in SARS immunity and last for 17 years..

In April 1993 I had a terrible virus, couldn't stop coughing, terrible headache, crushing fatigue, floored me for weeks. The doctor said it was 'just a virus' but I am becoming more and more convinced that it was Covid....

@Iseeyoulookingatme

I was really poorly with a terrible cough in January 2019 it lasted about 6 weeks and really knocked me out. I've never been so ill, I thought I was dying and I suspect it was covid. I was given antibiotics and they didn't seem to touch it. I think it's definitely been circulating a lot longer than we realize and it's becoming more contagious.

I think Jan 2019 was too early - my husband had a horrible chest infection in February 2019. Certainly had it been this year, he would have assumed it was covid, but it was something else.

The Chinese Communist Party lie. Everything coming out of China is a lie. It's very likely the disease was circulating long before they told us about it.

I returned from China 2019 in October and was quite ill. I think it was Covid.

@Therollockingrogue I was testing for pneumonia, pleurisy, my thyroid was checked (this was standard as I have had ongoing thyroid issues) and a bunch of virus stuff and even the c word because I was so bad afterwards.

They repeated the same in Nov when I got it again.

I have asked them for more specifics but they are reluctant to give me too much detail. Probably I think they probably don't want to highlight it could have been identified sooner!

I am also interested, but they aren't telling me much. I do wonder if this is

@scaevola Please could you talk a bit more about OC43 and its circulation last year, or link to some articles? I've seen it mentioned a few times and have been interested about it, but can't find much except for it being one of the four "common cold" coronaviruses. It's been my hypothesis that there's been TWO coronaviruses in circulation in the past 12+ months... OC43 and Sars-CoV2 and that's why this virus seems confusing... in mild, but "feeling grotty" cases, the symptoms are similar, but obviously Sars-CoV2 has a much nastier sting in its tale. Although, it's been hypothesised that OC43 was the actually the infectious agent that caused the 1889 flu pandemic, and not influenza. Phylogenetic analysis has put its origins to around the 1880s, and the 1889 pandemic was its first pass into the human population, thereafter it became endemic, and more benign as the virus mutated and immunity built up among humans.

Maybe it's exponential growth, and these numbers are small initially? But lung cancer patients don't make up a huge percentage of the population, so it must have been widespread? Maybe the earlier strain was milder causing fewer issues and more asymptomatic patients, and it subsequently became more virulent?

Yes @kazmerelda my story is similar.
I went from being able to do strenuous work outs to being unable to walk up five stairs. Practically overnight. I’m lots better but I can distinctly divide my life in to two sections (before I caught the mystery illness and after).

This is really interesting.

I am convinced we had it last Christmas. I developed a temperature and cough on Christmas Day, and by the end of Boxing Day, DS was the same. DS was seen by OOH on 28th, as his temperature wasn’t responding to Calpol and we had never seen him so poorly. The doctor said he was seeing lots of children’s and adults with the nasty flu-like virus and unusual cough. I was pretty much bed-ridden until 3rd January, and neither DS nor I were fully better for several weeks. My other son came down with a really high temperature one evening, and said he could ‘smell a funny smell’, but he was absolutely fine the following morning, and never had another symptom. Similarly, DH developed a sudden temperature just after, but was fine within 24 hours.

This is interesting and not the first time it's been reported as being around earlier in Europe than was previously thought.

DH travels a lot overseas and gave me what I thought was a nasty cold/flu late last year. I was recovering from an operation in December and only left the house once before Christmas when a friend took me for lunch. Just before Christmas I developed a temperature, nasty cough and sore throat that went on for a few weeks. Early January I went to the GP about my operation follow up and he commented about my cough and asked how long I'd had it and what were my symptoms. He commented that he'd seen a lot of people with the same symptoms and didn't know what the virus was and it was nice to see someone who hadn't come in for that reason.

I'd had a flu jab in October and was fairly healthy but the virus I had knocked me out over Christmas with real shivers and sore head. I am sure that I had Covid at that point and 2 of my kids did. What also confirms this is when the eldest got it in October, confirmed by a test nine of us got it from him despite us all being in close contact. He as asymptomatic and got a test as he is at university.

I'll never know for certain but I am convinced that I had it.

PicsInRed: "The early tests were rubbish, so that's probably why."

Yes, and although it was only on a forum from an individual's point of view, I read the description of what constituted 'a' test, and isolation, as practiced in Wuhan in the early point of all this. The person's elderly relative had 'a' test - which was, in fact, as standard, 3 tests a week apart each time. Results came as 2 negative and 1 positive. All household isolating through the 3 weeks including dog to an isolation kennels. I found the 3 week follow-ups really interesting, and logical.

The weirdest thing about it all when I got "whatever it was" was how quickly it spread. With flu, although contagious you only hear of the odd person having it.

They were actually really worried where I worked at the time because so many were struck quickly and seriously, about 75% of my workplace in a 4 week period.