'Coronavirus circulating in Italy since September'

[GreenOwlBlue]

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-anitbodies-covid-study-b1723243.html

So, of 1000 asymptomatic people who took part in a lung cancer screening programme, 111 were found to already have Covid antibodies when the samples were tested. Wow.

What I don't understand is how the virus can circulate unnoticed for so long, when we've seen 2 big peaks involving large numbers hospitalised/dying?

Interesting stuff.

It needs a few superspreaders and people who seek medical attention.

If the big superspreader in Italy had gone home after contracting it and sat watching telly by himself, that source would have been stemmed. As it was, he went off doing marathons, sang in a choir etc as he was a very social person.

I have had flu - as in bad, bedridden flu - a number of times, and each time I have suffered in my bed for a week or two, and then limped around for a few weeks after that - but never went to a doctor. So my cases would not be recorded. Other people are so ill they need hospital treatment, or are just wusses who run to the doctor with a finger ache and thus show up in statistics.

@Possums4evr

I thought I probably had it in Feb/March last year, but a recent antibody test was negative - I suppose any antibodies might not last that long though.

Same.

I was working with Italians and French colleagues closely in the months prior. Each of us travelling between London, Turin and Paris at least fortnightly. We all had coughs that wouldn't go away and were unusually tired but otherwise OK for about 6-8 weeks.

@scaevola

One thing to remember when looking at 'early' cases, is that in Jan/Feb in UK, people were tested only idpf they had symptoms (and were probably really quite ill) and had been in contact with a traveller or a known case.

And still over 80% (might have been higher?) were negative.

There was definitely another nasty lurgy going round last winter. Possibly human coronavirus OC-43

The test positivity rate didn't pass 1% until the 28th or 29th of February. Unless we had a massive peak followed by a trough in January/February there's just no way that covid was circulating in any great numbers in the UK before February half term. There was a nasty hacking cough doing the rounds in London in early January but so many had it that there's no way it was covid. I'd be inclined to believe that the people with links to Wuhan in late Autumn/early winter or Italy in January plus the airport staff could have had it and there might have been a tiny amount of spread in the community but there's just no way that the majority of people who think they had covid in the UK prior to March actually had it.

Discussions like this baffle me because I don't see how it's possible that covid wasn't circulating at the end of 2019.

This is a genuine question - do people who think covid only showed up in February and March think that it's physically possible for a virus to spread throughout an entire country, among thousands if not millions of people, within weeks? If so, could you explain how the basic physics of that might work?

@TheDailyCarbuncle

Discussions like this baffle me because I don't see how it's possible that covid wasn't circulating at the end of 2019.

This is a genuine question - do people who think covid only showed up in February and March think that it's physically possible for a virus to spread throughout an entire country, among thousands if not millions of people, within weeks? If so, could you explain how the basic physics of that might work?

The two sides of the argument are people who think loads of people had it way before March and those who think that very few people had it way before March. We had extremely low numbers in the UK until hundreds of people brought it home from their half term skiing trip in northern Italy and the government didn't shut down things like football matches and Krufts.

I had a really nasty respiratory virus last March 2019 where I was almost hospitalised. 75% of my workplace at the time also went down with it. I was ill for months, gp told me they had had hundreds of cases and sent me for blood tests generally.

I also had more blood tests inNov 2019 due to having the same thing again but milder.

Both lots of bloods show markers seen in Covid positive patients.

My view is that whatever this is, it has been here for some time and mutated. Like anything such as flu or pneumonia they all started somewhere before a name got plonked on it.

do people who think covid only showed up in February and March think that it's physically possible for a virus to spread throughout an entire country, among thousands if not millions of people, within weeks?
Despite social distancing, masks, limits on group size, WFH etc. we know it spread from almost nothing in august to lots in weeks, so I don't think there's any problem with a scenario that did it quicker without any of those measures.

@QueenStromba

Surely both of these scenarios can be true. It's certainly true that no-one tested positive until we started testing for the virus, however a lack of testing doesn't necessarily equal a lack of cases.

Here's an article from February 2019 which refers to what was believed as a highly virulent flu which impacted younger and healthy people more than usual, leading to ICU capacity challenges.

www.theguardian.com/society/2019/feb/20/britons-urged-to-get-flu-vaccine-as-critical-cases-rise-above-2000

There are other articles from December (other newspapers) referring to an usually early and severe flu season.

@QueenStromba how does anyone know what the numbers were, when there was practically no testing?

@sirfredfredgeorge

do people who think covid only showed up in February and March think that it's physically possible for a virus to spread throughout an entire country, among thousands if not millions of people, within weeks? Despite social distancing, masks, limits on group size, WFH etc. we know it spread from almost nothing in august to lots in weeks, so I don't think there's any problem with a scenario that did it quicker without any of those measures.

There's a huge difference between something spreading from zero to thousands across a whole country, and something that's already present across all locations growing from a low number to a higher number. Just from a purely logistical view, if it starts out in London, it's going to take time to spread to Yorkshire, Aberdeen and Cornwall. If it's already present in all those places in low numbers, it's going to go up in all those places simultaneously. Surely you can see the difference?

[quote scottish83]@QueenStromba

Surely both of these scenarios can be true. It's certainly true that no-one tested positive until we started testing for the virus, however a lack of testing doesn't necessarily equal a lack of cases.

Here's an article from February 2019 which refers to what was believed as a highly virulent flu which impacted younger and healthy people more than usual, leading to ICU capacity challenges.

www.theguardian.com/society/2019/feb/20/britons-urged-to-get-flu-vaccine-as-critical-cases-rise-above-2000

There are other articles from December (other newspapers) referring to an usually early and severe flu season. [/quote]
We did about 100,000 tests in February and it wasn't until the very last day of February that more than 1% of the daily tests came back positive. It just wasn't here in great numbers before half term.

@Kazmerelda I was the same after taking a flight in early 2019. Like you, I was almost hospitalised, and also had a second, then a third (albeit more manageable) repeat of the exact same thing. Slightly Milder each time. I posted here under another user name for advice at the time, my symptoms were so very extreme.
I also had lots of bloods taken and I’d be interested to know what the blood markers you mention would be in a full blood count?

My parents were extremely ill over Christmas 2019 with what they assume was the flu - had all the main symptoms of CV19 - horrible dry cough that lasted for weeks, loss of taste and smell, terrible fatigue, high temps, breathlessness. My Dad was hospitalised for a couple of days with breathlessness. Wiped them both out for weeks.

My Mum’s friend also had what she assumed was flu around the same time, same symptoms as my parents (just coincidence, they hadn’t seen each other). She has kidney failure and is on the transplant list and has dialysis. She was extremely unwell - hospitalised and weren’t sure she’d pull through.

She took part in the antibody trial which came back positive. The only time she’s been ill was that period over Christmas. Unlikely she would have had CV19 without knowing given her medical history.

The government didn't test people unless they had been to Italy or china before march therefore they were able to say that it only came from these two countries. Had the government tested everyone with the symptoms from January onwards maybe they would have found lots of people with the symptoms who had not been to Italy or china.

I believe I had it late January until April when I finally stopped coughing. Not once did I contact a Dr, I assumed I had a horrible virus and bought every remedy going to ease the many symptoms. We are constantly told not to visit our GPs over the winter with coughs and colds, I’m sure many people struggled on at home. I also thought I had broken a rib from coughing so badly, not out of the question as I have osteoporosis resulting from cancer treatment.

I was in York in January where there were many Chinese visitors and indeed one of the first cases and at the gym, where people had returned from skiing holidays. My dh was breathless for a short time but we didn’t really think anything of it and adult dd was perfectly fine.

I absolutely believe it was around before March, but a lot of people, like me, didn’t report it.

It also really surprises me to that people think a virus that doctors would have noticed a virus that for the most part causes vague and not very serious symptoms like a cough, fever and fatigue. Anyone who's ever been to the doctor with those symptoms knows that they will be told 'it's a virus' and to go home and rest. It's definitely not the case that a doctor will order tests for a person with something that is likely to clear up in a few weeks.

Many older people could have died with covid without anyone realising. Pneumonia is one of the most common causes of death in the elderly - if a person in a nursing home passed away with a wheezy chest in February no doctor would ask questions or order a post mortem - that's just a waste of time. Their death will be put down to a respiratory infection or pneumonia or attributed to any ongoing illness they had and it'll be left at that. There's no mechanism in place for connecting symptoms or deaths in a way that would quickly show up a virus like covid.

Early on even those in hospital with symptoms were denied tests if they hadn't been to Wuhan or later only China or very specific parts of affected countries. Testing was also unreliable, chaotic, and frankly a nonsense. Early information and tests out of China were disgracefully inaccurate.

The fact that COVID-19 has been found in sewage samples taken in Northern Italy in Autumn 2019 shows how widespread it must have been in that community - in addition to its' presence in films and blood tests from the period in France and Italy respectively. Our own first recorded death occurred in January (and this timeline has moved backwards several times with earlier cases retrospectively identified), so likely caught it in late December or early January. This was an elderly person who hadn't travelled, so a community acquired illness. A fair few of the earliest deaths were elderly persons from outside of main cities with no travel history. That indicates wide community spread already occurring at the time current UK patient zero contracted COVID-19.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-hospital-care-homes-ons-b446274.html

My view is that whatever this is, it has been here for some time and mutated. Like anything such as flu or pneumonia they all started somewhere before a name got plonked on it

If that's true, then CV couldn't have started in China, as first cases reported there by local Dr's in December, not a year earlier.

Given the UK's reliance on Chinese students and our position as a travel hub, why did CV appear in Italy first? apparently, according to sewage samples, as early as December.

It doesn't make any sense.

Right so we are believing that when China reported it at the END of December, that they were actually the first cases? Or is it more likely that it had been circulating in China for quite a while before they alerted the WHO? That by this point, Wuhan being the international hub it is, had travellers spreading it all over the world.

We have clear evidence it was in Europe earlier than December. I don’t know why people are denying this. There’s so many reports in this.

At this rate we will rename it covid-18.

And Trump will have to start calling it the Eye-Tal virus.

@Delatron

Right so we are believing that when China reported it at the END of December, that they were actually the first cases? Or is it more likely that it had been circulating in China for quite a while before they alerted the WHO? That by this point, Wuhan being the international hub it is, had travellers spreading it all over the world.

We have clear evidence it was in Europe earlier than December. I don’t know why people are denying this. There’s so many reports in this.

Earliest evidence i have seen is the Italian sewage samples showing CV in December & a french national in late December.

Sure everyone and her dog had CV in 2018 because they had many of the symptoms associated with CV, fever, cough loss of taste, the runs etc all very common with viral respiratory illnesses.

Chinese doctors reporting CV type illnesses in late Nov Dec disappeared or "died" of CV .... i think that gives us the time line.

Earliest evidence i have seen is the Italian sewage samples showing CV in December & a french national in late December.

Brazil sewage in November 2019.

smartwatermagazine.com/news/smart-water-magazine/brazil-finds-coronavirus-sewage-sample-november-2019

French x rays November 2019

www.nbcnews.com/news/world/new-evidence-race-find-france-s-covid-19-patient-zero-n1207871

Which means, for those patients to have contracted in the community and become so unwell, that it was in circulation even earlier than that.

@Delatron

Right so we are believing that when China reported it at the END of December, that they were actually the first cases? Or is it more likely that it had been circulating in China for quite a while before they alerted the WHO? That by this point, Wuhan being the international hub it is, had travellers spreading it all over the world.

We have clear evidence it was in Europe earlier than December. I don’t know why people are denying this. There’s so many reports in this.

I've not seen anyone deny that it was here last December. It would have been vanishingly rare though so most people who think they had it back then are wrong.

I am a normally fit and healthy 40 something. I had a bug in February that absolutely floored me. I was off work for a week, and barely left the sofa. My Mum was really worried about me, even my husband who is normally really unsympathetic about illness wanted me to see a doctor.

I had a horrible temperature, waking in a pool of sweat or huddling under two duvets shivering, but the worst thing was the cough. I have never had a cough like it. I was coughing continually until I was sick, or choked, or my nose bled. My ribs and abs hurt like hell, I was red in the face with tears streaming down my face, I was taking two different cough medicines to little effect and I couldn't lie down.

I contacted the doctor but I was more worried about whooping cough than covid at the time! The doctor wanted to know if I had been to China or Italy but I hadn't so was told to just keep hydrated and go back if it hadn't improved within 6 weeks!

My husband caught it but not as badly, (he was taking high strength vitamin D at the time) he felt a bit run down and headachey but he particularly noticed it affected his sense of taste and smell.

We have both had symptoms since that can be associated with long covid. I am now convinced that we had it then but we will never know.

During my recovery Covid was in the news more and more and I kept getting comments about my cough and whether I had been to China.