We should be aiming to vaccinate everybody, not just the over 50s

[ForBlueSkies]

I feel like this government is sleepwalking into yet another disaster.

Why is it that leaders of Australia, the USA and Germany have all gone on record the past few weeks stating that population wide vaccination is the goal, and yet our authorities claim only over 50s and the vulnerable will ever receive it?

25% of ICU beds are currently filled with under 50s. Many people who have underlying conditions this virus preys on don’t even know it, such as diabetes and hypertension. For example, a case mentioned in the NYT:

“Mr. Alvarado said his wife and three children under the age of 12 first showed symptoms, then he got it, too. By mid-October, Mr. Sierra Macias also fell sick and was admitted to a hospital, where he learned he had diabetes, in addition to high blood pressure. Things seemed to be improving, but Mr. Sierra Macias took a turn for the worse. He was 49.”

www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/coronavirus-deaths.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

This is NOT an atypical case. I have a close friend in the US who is 30 and currently hospitalised with covid.

We must vaccinate our at risk groups first, of course, and it’s possible the vaccine is inappropriate/unnecessary for children, but in the long term the government’s goal should be to protect everybody.

[quote ragged]@ForBlueSkies, do you want compulsory vaccination?
Legally required with criminal or civil penalties... or maybe just penalties if anyone leaves their home unvaccinated.
What about people who are not supposed to receive vaccines, medically contra-indicated - should they be penalised too?

You said "everybody"[/quote]
Absolutely not. I’m not advocating mandatory vaccination. Just that once those that need to be prioritised have been vaccinated as many people as wish to be protected are, providing we can acquire supply. I think there are many people in their 30s and 40s in particular who will needlessly suffer otherwise.

I don’t understand why the US, Germany and Australia (and likely many others) are planning population level protection while we are not.

I agree OP.

I absolutely agree that elderly and vulnerable need to be prioritised and don’t expect the healthy under 50s to get it for a while. Clearly it would take time. But to rule out us being vaccinated at all (if that’s what they’re doing) seems very short sighted. Obviously we are lower risk but that doesn’t mean no risk and there’s a lot of talk of unknown long term effects. No fucker wants to get this bloody thing if it can be avoided.

Also it would surely create a kind of segregation of vaccinated and non vaccinated people? Some of those that hadn’t had It wouldn’t feel ‘safe’ to resume normal life entirely, even if statistically their risk was low

However, it’s also quite an ask to expect an obese 48 year old with well controlled diabetes, to flip from a slightly increased risk of icu, to normal, without being vaccinated.

They would qualify for vaccination in the same category as me (moderate risk adult under 65) at number 7 on the list.

Exactly bumblenbean. And so many people in their 40s will have lost livelihoods just to protect the vulnerable with no protection offered to themselves

We weaken our natural immune system by being excessively reliant on artificial intervention.

Vaccines work by activating our natural immune system. They don’t undermine it, circumvent it or anything of that sort - they put it to work.

If anything counts as artificial intervention, it would be all these germicidal products we are encouraged to clean our homes with.

The game-changer will be if Oxford vaccine is greenlighted and potentially others.

With the pfizer vaccine, we're restricted on how many we'll actually get over the next 6-12 months.

When did the government say only the over 50s are getting it? Sounds like you are making it up! The goal is to vaccinate everyone. BUT certain groups get it first. Obviously! Not everyone can get it the same day!

@PuzzledObserver I thought I read on the jvci website that it was only those with poorly controlled diabetes that were in one of the groups 1-10.

[quote Lemons1571]@PuzzledObserver I thought I read on the jvci website that it was only those with poorly controlled diabetes that were in one of the groups 1-10.[/quote]
Ooh, that’s new - I had assumed it was everyone with diabetes. Off to research....

I read that when they thought the vaccine might only have an effectiveness of 50% the risk/benefit ratio would make it only worth vaccinating the elderly/vulnerable. With a 90% effectiveness however it is more worthwhile to vaccinate everyone.

I think the truth is that no one knows enough about the vaccine at present to be able to determine its roll out at present e.g. if immunity only lasts 3 months then it might have to be prioritised more.

There are issues with vaccinating healthy young people against a disease which is very, very, very unlikely to cause them significant harm. For example, using made-up figures :

A healthy 25 year old’s chances of dying of covid is 0.0001%, ie 1 in 1,000,000.
An 85 year old with COPD’s chances of dying of covid is 5%, ie 1 in 20.

The chance of harmful side-effects of a vaccine is 0.001%, ie 1 in 100,000.

Therefore, the balance of risk is that the 85 year old is much, much safer being vaccinated than taking their chances with the disease, but for the 25 year old the tiny risk of an adverse reaction to the vaccine is marginally greater than the even smaller risk of dying of covid.

25% of ICU beds are currently filled with under 50s

Where did you get these figures?

Just a word of caution on the numbers being quoted here.

The population of the UK is 67m. The adult population is more like 52m. Vaccination uptake will not be 100%. A realistic uptake figure would be 75%. We are therefore looking at about 40m people and 80m vaccinations.

The UK government has ordered 300m vaccines, including 40m Pfizer and 60m Oxford. The real issue, after approval will be when these vaccines can be supplied given the volume of international orders.

The figures of 1-1.2m vaccines per day relates to the amount NHS England plan to get from GPs. It won’t include other provision, hospital, pharmacists etc. It does not include the other 3 nations. All of which will depend on dependable supply from the manufacturers.

It’s a no brainier to throw clinical resources and release capacity into programmes for the over 50s and to do so at pace.

It would be more questionable to do this for the under 50s who have no other risk factors. Because it would mean taking capacity away from other activities. That’s the difficult dilemma for the four governments.

I'm quite a few years over 50. I'm retired, but perfectly healthy with no underlying health conditions, not on any meds. I am not in any way vulnerable.

I do not need or want to be in the first tranche of people offered the vaccine. My priorities would be:
All health and care workers.
All other key workers (teachers, emergency services.
Vulnerable people of working age.
Anyone else of working age, including students, who need to be out and about to get the economy moving again (this tranche includes parents even if not actually working at the time - having a job would not be a prerequisite).

After that, let's see how much vaccine there is left and I'll join the queue for one.

I'm one of the lucky ones who can hunker down and hide from CV-19 for a while.

It would be more helpful for the vaccine programme if people came forward when called. A lot of effort goes into calling people and reminding them.

And they will want to complete each cohort before starting another.

I’m 51 and am not sure I even want it tbh. I’m not an “anti vaxxer” but I have my concerns. At whatever stage it is offered to me I will be doing a lot of reading and research before deciding. If this had happened 14 months ago I’d be an “under 50” so I don’t believe I’m suddenly massively more at risk because I’m a few months over. Statistics for over 50’s count 50-60 so I imagine a lot of poorer outcomes are those at the latter stages of 50’s. I say all this only because you shouldn’t assume that all us over 50s are elated about it and you’re somehow missing out. Let’s wait and see how it all pans out.

@BonnieDundee

25% of ICU beds are currently filled with under 50s

Where did you get these figures?

The U.K. I/CU reports—

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/6167f9f7-ea25-eb11-912b-00505601089b

To correct myself it’s actually only 20% in the latest report. It was 25% last time I checked in August (younger cohort infected in that period). Still higher than I think most people realise .

I doubt very much if any country will go for whole population vaccination for a considerable time. Current vaccine trials are concentrating on adults. Trials for children will only take place after approval for adults, and only then if it is worth doing. A large number of drugs are never approved for children because the demand is too small and the approval costs are massive. I would also expect any vaccine would not be approved for a considerable time for pregnant women or those trying to conceive.

Does anyone know when the vaccine realistically will be rolled out? I saw on the news recently that we’re close.

@Meruem

I’m 51 and am not sure I even want it tbh. I’m not an “anti vaxxer” but I have my concerns. At whatever stage it is offered to me I will be doing a lot of reading and research before deciding. If this had happened 14 months ago I’d be an “under 50” so I don’t believe I’m suddenly massively more at risk because I’m a few months over. Statistics for over 50’s count 50-60 so I imagine a lot of poorer outcomes are those at the latter stages of 50’s. I say all this only because you shouldn’t assume that all us over 50s are elated about it and you’re somehow missing out. Let’s wait and see how it all pans out.

That’s fair enough. To be honest, I’m not 100% sure I’d want the vaccine straight out of the gate either. But I think our best bet of truly returning to some kind of normal is if the government offers the vaccine to the vast majority (in time, when availability allows). I’m concerned that unlike other nations this is not a stated aim. In fact, the head of our vaccine task force has said such an aim is “misguided”. Why do we know better than Germany, the US, Australia? When the U.K. went its own way early in the pandemic that didn’t exactly work out well...

I’ve read too many accounts of under 50s in ICU—not to mention those suffering long covid—to feel comfortable with this.

@Coolieloach

Does anyone know when the vaccine realistically will be rolled out? I saw on the news recently that we’re close.

Pending approval they are aiming to start vaccinating a select few as early as December. But it's more likely that the main vaccination program will run from Spring 2021, so I would expect my elderly relatives have a chance of being vaccinated before Easter if everything goes according to plan. The younger you are the less co-morbidities you have the longer you have to wait, you can see the latest order of priority by searching for the JCVI list I think.

I suspect the initial vaccination program will target those most in need. As time rolls on more people will be offered the vaccine and then eventually everyone who asks for it will get it.

I think there is a good chance that most international travel will require a current vaccination from the receiving government and this will drive a lot of people to get it - no vaccine, no holiday. Maybe even if you want to attend a theatre show or a concert. Who knows, some restaurants might even insist on one.

This just gives me the rage. There are 195 countries in the world, at a guess probably 170ish of them have bought 0 vaccines, they are way too expensive, the cold chains required to store and supply them are non existent in most countries and what a surprise countries like the US and the UK have bought way way more than they will ever need, thus ruining the supply for everyone else even if we could squirrel together money to buy them.

Seriously count your blessings that you live in a ridiculously rich country that only cares about itself and not the population of the rest of the world, which ironically you also poach all their Doctors and nurses from by offering them salaries which are unaffordable in the home countries.

RainbowCookie To be fair the UK and the EU, and others, are all part of Gavi and Covax, who are committed to providing vaccines to those who cannot pay, in the interests of world immunity.

But everyone doesn’t need to get a vaccine to suppress the prevalence in the population.