A potential vaccine? What does that mean initially for those who aren't eligible for it?

[3littlewords]

Encouraging news today that a vaccine has been found that's 90% effective. However as initially it will be rolled out to those front line workers, the over 80s and those CEV , what does that mean for everyone else?

Will the virus just left to run through the rest of society as they will most likely not need any NHS support? Will 14 day isolating for close contacts still take place? Will school bubbles still close for 14 days ?

Given children will probably be the last people to be vaccinated (if at all), how will this affect education? Will they still be required to test and isolate every time they show any symptoms? Will there continue to be a disruption to teaching?

When will it be acceptable to reduce the need for SD and masks? When everyone has been vaccinated? When the NHS is no longer overwhelmed? When the number of deaths reduce? When?
What does the news of a vaccine mean for the majority that won't be eligible (initially anyway)?

They said on bbc news that people will be very excited about this but things will not be normal and it will be a new normal, I feel even more deflated than I did.

I am presuming not everyone will be entitled to the vaccine much like the flu vaccine?

R is 3 for coronavirus under “normal life”

The virus dies out if R is consistently under 1. So we need 2/3 of the population immune to get R from 3 to 1 without restrictions. At 90% effectiveness that means 75% of the population either have a vaccine or long lasting immunity.

It will be a long time until we get vaccine levels high enough for things to go back to how they were before. But every little helps. Plus vaccinating potential super-spreaders will make a bigger dent in R than average.

Two vaccines, two weeks apart
Storage at - 80
Efficacy not until a week after second jab
No one knows the how the supply chain will stand up to global demand.

So I think we need caution about how different life is going to be and when.

Wow! I want all of those things and can pay for it. But I don't want the vaccine.

Can they force individuals to have a vaccine and pay for it?

They can't 'force' you to have a vaccine, but they could stop you doing certain things (like entering a country) if you haven't had it. Just like some countries currently require a yellow fever or meningitis vaccine.

It's said it will be rolled out before Christmas which is brilliant.
Can't wait to start filling up the calendar with events again. Me and DP used to be out every weekend with friends and doing lots of social events. Cant wait to start doing all that again. Hopefully very soon!

@peakotter

R is 3 for coronavirus under “normal life”

The virus dies out if R is consistently under 1. So we need 2/3 of the population immune to get R from 3 to 1 without restrictions. At 90% effectiveness that means 75% of the population either have a vaccine or long lasting immunity.

It will be a long time until we get vaccine levels high enough for things to go back to how they were before. But every little helps. Plus vaccinating potential super-spreaders will make a bigger dent in R than average.

But if the most vulnerable are protected, then having an R over 1 wouldn't be disastrous for the NHS/country.

Like a PP said, there have been hundreds of thousands of cases among university students in the US, but none died and only 3 were hospitalised.

I imagine that some restrictions (eg track and trace, bans on big indoors events) will last until most of the population are vaccinated or immune. But I'm hopeful that we'll have relative normality once most of the elderly and CEV are vaccinated.

what about the mink mutation? this is worrying me, will this vaccine provide any protection from that strain which is already in humans???

My friend who is a matron in a London hospital has been to told that staff should expect to have the vaccine before Christmas .

@TheKeatingFive

However, if the vulnerable population are vaccinated then it doesn't really matter if someone works in the environment with a huge potential spread.

Well there have always been outliers/people badly affected with no prior indicators. Plus the risks of long Covid, so I think there is a point.

Those situations were it just rips through a setting (unis/good factories) have been very problematic. Not just for those in the setting, but their contacts and beyond. We know enough to try to avoid them I think.

I meant that it won't really matter in terms of "getting back to normal". There are always outliers and hopefully everyone will get the opportunity to be vaccinated. We are talking about who should have priority though.

I don't actually agree that the spread in some university halls of residence has been particularly problematic. It hasn't been nice for the students if they have had to self isolate, but nobody has been very ill and no evidence that it spread to the wider community. If the whole country was similar in risk the students there would have been no lockdown.

It's like MN has its own version of Godwin's Law, where all threads eventually turn into arguments about teachers...

Hardbackwriter you win Mumsnet today

[quote Redolent]@Belladonna12

What if they work on a mink farm?

There are clear advantages to vaccinating as many people as possible because this is still a novel virus and we have no idea about the ramifications of its continued spread and (possible) mutation.[/quote]
We don't have mink farms in the UK so I don't think that will have an impact on vaccination.

I've not said that there aren't advantages to vaccinating as many people as possible. I hope that they do. However, given not everyone can be vaccinated at once they will need to prioritise.

I'd like to see the CEV of working age moved up the list to aid the recovery of the economy, and also because they have been very adversely affected (including mental health) by shielding measures.

@FuzzyPuffling

I'd like to see the CEV of working age moved up the list to aid the recovery of the economy, and also because they have been very adversely affected (including mental health) by shielding measures.

I agree. It shouldn't just be the "extremely" vulnerable either. Many of the working age people that died weren't on that list. Retired people who don't live with working age people or schoolchildren can shield more easily.

@viccat

Selfishly I'm hoping it will be like the flu jab in that you can pay for it privately if you're not eligible for the free one... A lot will depend on the logistics especially as this one needs to be stored so cold, and the available supply in general.

I think the flu jab is only available to purchase once they have ensured there is enough available for vulnerable people to have through NHS so wouldn't think that would be the case initially with any Covid vaccine.

Redolent i doubt those occupations are higher risk now though due to SD and masks.

Hairdressers maybe though as like healthcare workers they are so close.(as are childcare staff but without masks).

I hope it is available to buy. Everyone who has a vax is decreasing the chance of an outbreak. Fine if the gov decides that xyz other country needs healthcare staff vqxxed first, but they shouldnt be imposing that on our population. Much better to allow people to pay and then
They are happy to go out and spend money
And due to the herd effect they are actually protecting those who choose not to/cant/it wont work for
Also some people will have families abroad that they cant go to without a vax.

There are children with long covid so really hope a one comes out for cnildren. And obviously any ecv children.

@chore

what about the mink mutation? this is worrying me, will this vaccine provide any protection from that strain which is already in humans???

interesting question!

@Siepie you are right that we could cope with R>1 in the short term. But I don’t think it’s quite back to normal. Protecting the most vulnerable 20% and normal life for the rest of us might give R=2.5 That would basically mean most of us would get it over the course of a year and a herd immunity strategy for non vulnerable people. So we need some restrictions to stop it spiralling.

I think we agree that a middle ground is most likely. Some events banned but visitors allowed in your house. I guess for me that isn’t normal life as I would normally attend a busy church with coffee and hugs, but for many folks it will be much closer to normality.

@Belladonna12

It is encouraging news. In order for things to go back to normal as quickly as possible , I think they should give it to working age people or schoolchildren who are vulnerable themselves (not just extremely vulnerable ) or working people that live or care for vulnerable first but that probably won't happen. It seems nonsensical to to prioritise those over 80 as a matter of routine. Those that aren't in care homes can probably shield quite easily, unlike people who work or at school. Even if they are in care homes I don't think they should have priority over much younger vulnerable people.

It's about impact on the NHS . Always has been. That's what lockdown is for .

Retired people who don't live with working age people or schoolchildren can shield more easily

Elbows are being sharpened at the ready lest the old should beat them to the vaccine.

Many of these have barely left the house since March and not seen loved ones.

@Tyzz

Retired people who don't live with working age people or schoolchildren can shield more easily

Elbows are being sharpened at the ready lest the old should beat them to the vaccine.

Many of these have barely left the house since March and not seen loved ones.

Feel especially sorry for people in care homes. Can’t wait for them to be reunited with loved ones.

I feel so sorry for those in care homes, it must be desperately lonely and bleak. The vaccine for the elderly will make a huge difference for them and obviously reduces the impact on the NHS also.

@Siepie

Wow! I want all of those things and can pay for it. But I don't want the vaccine.

Can they force individuals to have a vaccine and pay for it?

They can't 'force' you to have a vaccine, but they could stop you doing certain things (like entering a country) if you haven't had it. Just like some countries currently require a yellow fever or meningitis vaccine.

They can also force people back to work whether they've had the vaccine or not. OR, give jobs only to people who've had the vaccine, i.e. make it a condition of employment. In the longer term, people who refuse it without medical reason could well find they are limited in different ways.

@Tyzz

Retired people who don't live with working age people or schoolchildren can shield more easily

Elbows are being sharpened at the ready lest the old should beat them to the vaccine.

Many of these have barely left the house since March and not seen loved ones.

The elderly need to be prioritised, but will it change the 'don't kill granny' message?

Gran has her vaccine but it doesn't make her immune, just substantially reduces the risk. Everyone who hasn't had the vaccine will still need to socially distance, mask up and stay away from people for a while yet.

The priority list is decided. I would save your remaining mental health in debating the rights or wrongs. Patients need to be called in based on criteria that is already established. NHS system can differentiate by age and health condition. They won’t identify where you work or how much you earn, never mind if you wfh or look after grandkids.

The logistics have been known for a long time. They are going to be challenging, even for developed countries, WHO have already flagged this. But governments have been working on the roll out plans for some time. These aim to be as fast as possible.

However as initially it will be rolled out to those front line workers, the over 80s and those CEV , what does that mean for everyone else?

1. We'll all get the vaccine eventually
2. Can't you just celebrate?
3. Do you begrudge it to those categories you list?

Athough my evil self rather hopes that all the fuckwits on MN and elsewhere who refuse to vaccinate their children, are denied the C-19 vaccines