A potential vaccine? What does that mean initially for those who aren't eligible for it?

[3littlewords]

Encouraging news today that a vaccine has been found that's 90% effective. However as initially it will be rolled out to those front line workers, the over 80s and those CEV , what does that mean for everyone else?

Will the virus just left to run through the rest of society as they will most likely not need any NHS support? Will 14 day isolating for close contacts still take place? Will school bubbles still close for 14 days ?

Given children will probably be the last people to be vaccinated (if at all), how will this affect education? Will they still be required to test and isolate every time they show any symptoms? Will there continue to be a disruption to teaching?

When will it be acceptable to reduce the need for SD and masks? When everyone has been vaccinated? When the NHS is no longer overwhelmed? When the number of deaths reduce? When?
What does the news of a vaccine mean for the majority that won't be eligible (initially anyway)?

As long as the vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated I’m not bothered. I wouldn’t have the vaccine if I was offered it anyway, like I wouldn’t have the flu jab.

Far more people than need prioritised than me!

H*ardbackWriter

It's like MN has its own version of Godwin's Law, where all threads eventually turn into arguments about teachers...
*

@FuzzyPuffling

I think that might happen in time, but that it would be politically unacceptable to let people pay privately for it in the first tranche, as that would mean money trumped vulnerability...

I absolutely agree with that. I hope it is not available to those that can pay, rather than those that need it.

I have no problem with people paying as long as it doesn't mean that the vulnerable/elderly etc have a longer wait. What isn't acceptable is if the vulnerable/elderly have a longer wait longer because NHS resources (staff etc) are prioritising those able to pay for it. If it's different firms/different staff offering private jabs then I'm fine with that.

I don’t think anyone is saying teachers should get it before NHS or the most vulnerable. But above someone with a similar profile who can SD in their job.

Does anyone know yet whether this would be a 'one-off' vaccination, or will we need a yearly booster or top-up similar to the flu vaccine?

@Fernie6491

Does anyone know yet whether this would be a 'one-off' vaccination, or will we need a yearly booster or top-up similar to the flu vaccine?

They dont and cant know this yet.

@TOADfan

I think CEV should be first in line to get it.

My friend in her 30s with a 4 year old daughter has not been able to leave the house since February. Her daughter can't even go to nursery or see her grandparents etc. It's not acceptable that she should have to wait to get a vaccine.

I agree. Obviously top of the list has to be the front line health/care workers who are/are likely to be "hands on" with covid patients.

But next on the list has to be CEV, especially those with dependant family members and/or jobs. They, and their dependants have been impacted the most, due to shielding of themselves and those close to them. I'd prioritise those ahead of the elderly (non CEV) to be honest.

Then after those, you'd be looking at the elderly, then the vulnerable (non ECV).

@User647647

Please pardon my ignorance... but once you’ve been vaccinated, does it start working within a few days?

Second vaccine is three weeks after the first and a week later, you are deemed to be fully covered by it (90%).

Let’s just hope enough people agree to have the vaccine.

@TheKeatingFive

I don’t think anyone is saying teachers should get it before NHS or the most vulnerable. But above someone with a similar profile who can SD in their job.

I think the issue once you start introducing criteria like 'cannot SD in their job' that it's like means-testing benefits - you end up creating so much bureaucracy that you've actually slowed the whole thing down/wasted resources, so a more blanket approach will probably get it to the right people more quickly.

@ZombieFan

Well, there are alternatives being proposed as to who should get the vaccine. Not saying the UK will adopt them, but the thinking is there around prioritising key workers and those who can’t work from home:

Eg:

Prof Sridhar, who advises the Scottish Government on Covid-19, said she believes that a UK strategy based on deprivation would see many of those most at risk prioritised.

“The chance of catching Covid-19 is linked to your living arrangements and your daily exposure to risk, as well as your occupation,” said Prof Sridhar. “Deprivation is also the most convincing explanation for why we're seeing so many more people in black, minority and ethnic (BAME) groups being badly affected.

“Meanwhile wealth is the best shielding strategy… those who are wealthier are probably in occupations where they can shield as they can work from home; they have nicer homes to stay in, with a garden; they have access to green space during less crowded areas,” she said.

Prof Sridhar added that this sort strategy would see those in “super spreading” occupations vaccinated first, including taxi drivers, security guards and cleaners. “These are people who in their daily lives encounter a lot of people, and therefore it might have a broader protective effect if they had immunity.”

@Fernie6491

Does anyone know yet whether this would be a 'one-off' vaccination, or will we need a yearly booster or top-up similar to the flu vaccine?

It’s too soon for that to get known.

Thd flu vaccine isn’t a booster by the way. There are different strains of flu every year so it isn’t the same vaccine. It depends on what health bodies think will be most prevalent.

It is encouraging news. In order for things to go back to normal as quickly as possible , I think they should give it to working age people or schoolchildren who are vulnerable themselves (not just extremely vulnerable ) or working people that live or care for vulnerable first but that probably won't happen. It seems nonsensical to to prioritise those over 80 as a matter of routine. Those that aren't in care homes can probably shield quite easily, unlike people who work or at school. Even if they are in care homes I don't think they should have priority over much younger vulnerable people.

Meanwhile wealth is the best shielding strategy… those who are wealthier are probably in occupations where they can shield as they can work from home; they have nicer homes to stay in, with a garden; they have access to green space during less crowded areas,” she said.

She is not taking into account the fact that even wealthy people may have school age children.

I have just listened to an astonishing interview with Prof John Bell, head of the Oxford vaccine trial on R4 World at One. He actually said life could be “back to normal by spring”.

I could cry with happiness! I ❤️ science!

I think the issue once you start introducing criteria like 'cannot SD in their job' that it's like means-testing benefits - you end up creating so much bureaucracy

I disagree. The data already tells us where the outbreaks are most likely and the logistics of targeting those wouldn’t be too onerous. It’s not just about individual risk, but minimising population risk by tackling spread. Therefore people who work at schools, unis, factories for example would be high on my priority list (once NHS/care homes/vulnerable are done).

Effective vaccination roll out will save so much money if it’s thought through.

Prof Sridhar added that this sort strategy would see those in “super spreading” occupations vaccinated first, including taxi drivers, security guards and cleaners. “These are people who in their daily lives encounter a lot of people, and therefore it might have a broader protective effect if they had immunity.”

Again, this sounds lovely from a social equity point of view, but a moment's thought about the logistics of it shows how difficult to do it would be and so how resource-heavy to run it would be compared to a blunt programme based on age and already identified vulnerability. Every GP surgery should be able to give the number and names of their patients aged over 80, or 60, or whatever. There isn't a national register of cleaners.

@TheKeatingFive

What do you mean by 'factories'? What would be the minimum size to qualify? Would business owners have to volunteer their staff for the scheme, would the staff themselves self-identify, or would you expect local councils to be gathering lists of all the factories in their area and ringing them up? Given that we already know that a major reason why staff in some sectors are more vulnerable is that there are large numbers of undocumented workers, reluctant to draw any attention to themselves/their existence, how would you target this particularly difficult to reach but important group?

It's interesting to see how the slogan 'protect the vulnerable' only seems to garner support when the protection consists of little more than shutting them away and everyone else taking their chances (because it's a so much milder disease)

When the protection is potentially good, it seems that protecting the most vulnerable isn't a desirable strategy

I imagine it will be like the current plans say, health works, care workers, elderly and extremely vulnerable first. Then with those groups vaccinated restrictions can slowly be relaxed. Maybe it will be by spring that some are relaxed so larger groups allowed to meet, more indoor activities and by end of summer pretty much back to normal as more and more are vaccinated.

@Hardbackwriter

Prof Sridhar added that this sort strategy would see those in “super spreading” occupations vaccinated first, including taxi drivers, security guards and cleaners. “These are people who in their daily lives encounter a lot of people, and therefore it might have a broader protective effect if they had immunity.”

Again, this sounds lovely from a social equity point of view, but a moment's thought about the logistics of it shows how difficult to do it would be and so how resource-heavy to run it would be compared to a blunt programme based on age and already identified vulnerability. Every GP surgery should be able to give the number and names of their patients aged over 80, or 60, or whatever. There isn't a national register of cleaners.

I agree. When people suggest this kind of thing it fills me with dread . I can just imagine some company (that various MPs/advisors have shares in) being set up to waste time and money deciding who should and shouldn't receive the vaccine first, while vaccines stay in storage waiting to be used. The only people who have demonstrated their competence so far are the scientists and healthcare professionals.

@Reborn2020

Only on MN could you have:

Arguing about which groups should and should not get a vaccine ... a few months ago it was all 'it will take years for a vaccine' or 'I'm not taking any vaccine that has been rushed through' or similar

MN is a funny place

Yep. In reality people will queue up to be first.

That may be so but I simply do not believe that the rich and powerful will patiently wait in line for their turn at the vaccine. There is defo gonna be a back door VIP route for the vaccine.

Restrictions are driven by hospital admissions and nothing else... Which are largely driven by over 70s... You get them vaccinated and massively reduce the risk of NHS being overwhelmed... Then restrictions can be lifted.

@Forgetmenot157

Restrictions are driven by hospital admissions and nothing else... Which are largely driven by over 70s... You get them vaccinated and massively reduce the risk of NHS being overwhelmed... Then restrictions can be lifted.

I’d say so