Apparently new daily cases have stabilised. Did we lockdown too soon?

[Hyperbolistic]

Just this. Are businesses just on the brink of recovery being ruined because we're being too cautious?

Too early to know if the cases are stabilising. You need to follow the whole trend.
It was raising quickly at the time they decided to do the lockdown and there is no way that is has just miraculously flatten itself in a few days.
The effects of half term will start to be seen now, that could see a short dip or flatter area in the curve, which should last around 1 week or so.
And the effects of the lockdown, towards the end of December.
Also, why do people keep saying "cases are going down, we locked too early"? Of course they will go down, that is the whole point. You have to compare with what was happening 2-3 weeks before, and the corresponding predictions if there were no further restrictions.

@LauraBassi

The telegraph reported a leaked document saying that intensive care units were no busier than normal.

This is twice now I’ve seen this. We need more transparency

From the CEO of NHS Providers (the Association of NHS trusts and foundation trusts). mobile.twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1323987484813021194

I think even in half term children and households were mixing.
So play dates, sleepovers, birthday parties.

We’ve had no new cases in either DS’s schools last week. I guess time will tell. All cases were linked to parents first.

Teenagers were going round to each other’s houses at half term, and I doubt they will have had windows open and avoided facing each other as they are doing at school.

We also had lost of children meeting up with their old friends from different schools at half term.

Yes they are starting to stabilise. You only have to look on worldometers. Tim Spector has said according to his ZOE app that is the case. They are only doubling every 28 days but levelling off. Obviously deaths will continue to go up because there's a lag and they are 'baked in'. He says it shows the local lockdown measures are starting to have an affect and other measures.

Boris bottled it. Cases have been stabilising for a couple of weeks. What a twat!

We also had lost of children meeting up with their old friends from different schools at half term this is how a few DC I know caught it. My own secondary school DC all saw friends over half term, they all did (no rules broken, this was pre lockdown). Stabilisation is nothing to do with schools being on half term even though the schools should close brigade would love it to have been.

Boris bottled it
He had no intention of locking down even the day before. Absolutely got scared into it.

Will we see more of a dramatic drop now then a subsequent huge rise when we open up in December? Rather than have stuck with the tier system which was starting to work and cases were stabilising?

Would the cases have stabilised and been at a manageable level? I know a doctor friend at a London hospital who says they don’t have many cases there.

By locking down and opening up are we causing artificial drops and huge peaks when we all start to mix again?

Look at hospital admission data, those aren't decreasing or stabilising

[quote Hyperbolistic]@RafaIsTheKingOfClay schools were only closed for a week. The only DC I know who have tested positive for CV did so over half term so I don't think your theory is correct.[/quote]
Kids who tested positive over half term will have caught it while they were at school.

Kids in a bedroom with a couple of mates are still in contact with far fewer people than they were in school. If your kid broke the rule of 6 over half term then thanks for that.

They didn’t necessarily catch it at school. They could have caught it from a parent who works out of the house?

My DS didn’t break the rule of 6. But he did go to a friend from a different school’s house for a play date. I think there would have been more household mixing over half term.

I said caught while they were at school, not definitely at school. But school hasn’t been ruled out just because they tested positive at half term.

More household mixing than 30-odd different households together in a room in a situation that would be illegal out of school?

Have a look at the amount of red in this table showing the number of places where the number of cases is rising.

I don't think we're anywhere near it slowing down yet!

They have stabilised but they have stabilised too high, so an average of 23k cases a day is still a concern, but if the R gets below one then instead of stabilizing the numbers will reduce. I am hoping to be able to see my family at christmas so if this lockdown helps that then I am all for it. I work for an ambulance trust in an area where cases are supposed to be low, but the majortity of our call outs are for incidents relating to COVID so this lockdown was very much needed so we have the manpower to ensure all patients are able to receive treatment and we dont become overwhelmed.

It's the hospital admissions we need to be looking at rather than the cases I think - we had no idea how many people were getting infected in the last peak as mass testing wasn't available after all

@Cantaloupeisland

It's the hospital admissions we need to be looking at rather than the cases I think - we had no idea how many people were getting infected in the last peak as mass testing wasn't available after all

I agree we do need to look at hospital admissions. People that are going in for other ailments are being tested for COVID, proving positive and it’s being classed as a COVID admission despite being asymptomatic.

Oh FFS, no we did it too late again.

There are three choices:

Act early
Act later
Never act

Acting early is better for BOTH public health and the economy.

If you don't think Covid is serious, you're wrong. If it is serious, you need to act. If you're going to act, do it early.

@noblegiraffe If your kid broke the rule of 6 over half term then thanks for that
I specifically said they didn't break any rules.

@noblegiraffe the DC I know that caught Covid did so on the Wednesday of half term from an adult.

@PicsInRed

Yes. You only need to look at Boris to see that fear has overtaken him in a way which is not conducive to good, calm, rational leadership.

He panicked.

But then waiting another two weeks may have cause more deaths. He gets slated for locking down too late in march and now too early. I don't like Boris but I think atm he could piss a rainbow and people would moan there wasn't a pot of gold at the end

Is that student cases though, and as they fall those in the community go up so more likely to be older people

Really interested to hear about fewer tests. I needed one recently ordered it with no problem for home delivery and got the result a day and a half later. one of my friends said that she had a cough for 2 weeks, so hadn't been out anywhere but hadn't had a test. I asked why, she said she didn't want to take up a valuable resource. I think maybe all the people saying how difficult it was to get tests has put some people off asking for one

proving positive and it’s being classed as a COVID admission despite being asymptomatic

But they'll still need to either be isolated in a side room, or put on a covid ward with other positive patients to stop it spreading around the hospital.

Same resources being used whether they are symptomatic or not

The majority of covid patients are not on ICU