Apparently new daily cases have stabilised. Did we lockdown too soon?

[Hyperbolistic]

Just this. Are businesses just on the brink of recovery being ruined because we're being too cautious?

I agree Boris bowed under pressure to lockdown (fear, following France and Germany, Wales and Scotland) and now the country is completely screwed.

He isn't following Scotland, no lockdown here.

Cases are still riding in my area unfortunately

But the R rate is currently between 1.1-1.3 though.
ONS say there’s a hint that infections may be levelling off, but the R rate isn’t below one where it ideally needs to be.

Have you looked at ONS survey?

Cases are falling for 18-24 years olds now (no hospitalisation). But continuing to rise for the older generations so hospitalisations will continue to rise.

The problem is that the areas with low numbers (SW, east of England) also have smallest hospital capacity so majority of country was not in a good place despite differing rates.

Only time will tell whether it was the right decision.

@Mindymomo

Hospitals in the north have cancelled routine operations and over 1500 admissions yesterday, so they haven’t stabilised.

The hospitals doing that doesn’t mean cases havnt stabilised. They maybe preparing for an event that won’t even happen. There is a real problem with knee jerk reactions.

We shouldn't have locked down at all.

Of course they have! Schools were closed for a week!!

It’s very early but I do think there is an argument about tier three certainly. Remember there were only five areas that went into tier three initially

• Liverpool
• Knowsley
• Sefton
• st Helen’s
• Wirral

There have been drops in cases in all of them for the last week and what I think are pretty big drops in the first three (Liverpool may have been artificially to start with because of the student effect but not the other two).

Problem of course is we will never know, cases have risen nationally but bigger in the south that was mainly in tier one with a slowing in those areas which had stricter restrictions (I think tier one does little to keep the r below one, but tier three it’s more of a question). Now Liverpool also has mass testing I suspect the rates will fall there and we will never know which bits to attribute to tier three, national lockdown and mass testing.

I maintain that the mumsnet idea that you cannot bring the rate down without school closures is still unsupported by evidence from Ireland and Scotland where they seem to have done that. Counter argument that it’s just a case of shutting down education and everything else can carry on is also not well supported by international evidence given the low rates of school opening in the us and the fact they continue record record numbers of daily cases.

Isn’t the flattening more due to the drop in testing than anything else? I want to know why test numbers have dropped? Were people reluctant to test because they didn’t want themselves and everyone around them to have to self isolate?

Test numbers have dropped
Schools shut for a week
Scotland and Wales did some sort of version of a circuit breaker which will bring down numbers for the UK
I wonder if they planned it for after half term on purposive? If numbers drop during half term then they can keep them low by locking us down but letting kids go back.

Schools were closed for two weeks in a lot of places. Many secondaries do this, so people are not taking time off in school time. The half term in England was a funny one this year, it was spread out over three weeks across the country.

We certainly saw many parents reluctant to test because they didn't want 14 days isolation forced on them, so they just kept children off instead. Many rebooked Easter holidays to this half term.

It really doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. A huge rise in cases after schools go back, a drop in cases and testing when the schools have a huge staggered break over the country. Even the ONS data will back this up. If there are lower cases, the transmission chain has been broken somewhere and we have only just gone into lockdown. Schools were off 1/2 weeks ago.

The question is, what will they do if cases begin to rise exponentially again by the end of the month? That will be the critical factor.

I'm sceptical about schools shutting for a week being a factor. I don't think many children & teens were sitting at home on their own over the hols - they were just out & about in different places with different people (esp the teens).

@SomewhereEast

I'm sceptical about schools shutting for a week being a factor. I don't think many children & teens were sitting at home on their own over the hols - they were just out & about in different places with different people (esp the teens).

They didn't shut for a week, that is the point. England had a staggered half term with LA's having it over three different weeks. Many LA's close their secondaries for two weeks (ours and the surrounding two do). Everything indoors was closed, so teens were no longer socialising in unventilated classrooms. The proof will be in two to three weeks time. Yet even then, if cases rise, people will still deny transmission is an issue in schools. Like they did with the exponential rises from September.

Cornwall, which had a low incidence during the first wave, has seen a noticeable upward trend since half term, but it seems to be flattening again on this week's graph.

No need to lockdown absolute joke

Yes, I think he's massively influenced by SAGE and not in a good way. The charts fiasco doesn't really promote confidence

@LauraBassi I agree. I think hospitals are largely cancelling operations as a precaution. I also think more people with Covid are being admitted at a much earlier stage than in March also as a precaution.
I can't see half term being a big factor. DC were still out and about with their friends.

Stabilisation at a high number of daily infections is still really bad because hospitals will come under severe pressure from sustained high admissions. We need the numbers to be coming down quickly and tier 3 restrictions, whilst probably having an effect, weren't having enough of an effect.

Not to mention that cases are still probably rising in some parts of the country, albeit from a lower level. I work in a critical care unit in one of the areas with relatively low cases and covid is already affecting what we can offer in terms of elective activity. And before anyone asks, flu does also affect this is non-covid times, but not normally so early on in the winter and not for such a prolonged period.

I think hospitals are largely cancelling operations as a precaution.

We're really not. There are literally covid patients in the beds that we need for elective activity.

Hospitals in the South still quiet...

I do think we need to see what happens over the next 2-3 weeks before we can draw any conclusions. October half term is often staggered, and some schools took two weeks due to staff absence. This could account for some of the stabilisation in cases.

Also, in some cases, if kids are not being sent home from school, their parents won't bother testing.

Also, stabilising at this stage isn't really enough- we need to see cases coming back down, and significantly, to reduce the numbers of hospitalisations and deaths!

Hmm schools closed and now the numbers are dropping. Funny that.

We should have had two weeks full proper lockdown and then back to normal. But that would have taken someone having an actual plan.

The telegraph reported a leaked document saying that intensive care units were no busier than normal.

This is twice now I’ve seen this. We need more transparency

@SansaSnark

I do think we need to see what happens over the next 2-3 weeks before we can draw any conclusions. October half term is often staggered, and some schools took two weeks due to staff absence. This could account for some of the stabilisation in cases.

Also, in some cases, if kids are not being sent home from school, their parents won't bother testing.

Also, stabilising at this stage isn't really enough- we need to see cases coming back down, and significantly, to reduce the numbers of hospitalisations and deaths!

Cases are coming down. Liverpool turned a corner before they went on lockdown.

Greater Manchester to according to the MEN.

Some hospitals in the north may be rammed but my local hospital in the north has hardly any COVID patients