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Why doesn’t China have a second wave?

332 replies

Custardcream67 · 01/11/2020 13:41

China had the initial wave of infections early 2020 then hardly any cases since. Their population is much bigger than UK. How can they have it so under control. Seems suspicious to me.

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7
Yellownotblue · 03/11/2020 00:18

@MrsGradyOldLady

A lot of users with numbers in their name defending China. A lot of new accounts too. Funny that...
Fake news. Not helpful. I know for a fact that many posters here (the ones with balanced opinions) have been here for years. As have I.

I’m deeply suspicious of China, yet I suspect they have more pressing matters than infiltrating Mumsnet.

Goosefoot · 03/11/2020 01:20

Yellownotblue

My sense has been that governments have been having a really hard time with messaging.

It's interesting that you came from Hong Kong and noticed such a difference, because from the perspective of a western country, there was quite a lot of messaging at the beginning that was confusing, and not really from governments at that point. Messaging about masks for example was very contradictory. And at the beginning so was messaging about social distancing or the need for measures at all.

Initially, most western countries seem to have come to the conclusion that real containment was not really possible. I'm half-way convinced they mostly still think that but have simply found that it's not an acceptable political message so are taking action with the goal of seeming to do something. The difficulty being that apart from countries that are able to severely restrict travel, and impose rolling quarantines for a period of years, or even longer, or even permanently, there is not much to be done. People are very hopeful about somehow getting rid of covid, but in all of human history, even with vaccination, only two diseases have ever been eradicated. And they were much more deadly and less likely to be asymptomatic. It's just not realistic, even if we find a vaccine.

The question becomes, for how long do we think people will be willing to periodically take these kinds of significant measures? Already many people are making it clear that they are simply not willing to stop seeing family. And of course, there is also the question of legality. In most western countries both freedom of movement and freedom of association, are considered basic rights. Governments cannot legally limit them except for short, defined periods.

skeptile · 03/11/2020 02:42

China doesn't need a second wave in order to fulfil an agenda of total control of it's citizens via the establishment of a technocratic surveillance state. It's already there. But the West is playing catch-up. So he we are. As many waves as are needed.

MarieFromStTropez · 03/11/2020 03:15

I do business with Chinese companies and have a lot of Chinese friends through my DD's school. China is more or less back to normal now. The reason is that they took lockdown very seriously, everyone wore masks and people didn't congregate.

Compare this to the UK experience where people are coming up with any excuse not to wear a mask and people are focused on ways to circumnavigate the rules.

ShanghaiDiva · 03/11/2020 06:49

@MrsGradyOldLady

A lot of users with numbers in their name defending China. A lot of new accounts too. Funny that...
And my bingo card is complete. Threads about China’s handling of the pandemic follow the same pattern: those of us who highlight how the Chinese actions have been effective are, of course, CCP plants.
turnitonagain · 03/11/2020 07:21

I don’t have any numbers in my name. I live in Asia with many Chinese work colleagues and friends. I believe what they are telling me China has genuinely suppressed the virus. Not eradicated it, and they keep small outbreaks hush hush early on, but suppressed it.

The methods they used which are described as against human rights have been successful in Asian democracies such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, and also in Australia and NZ.

It’s clearly a cultural issue where Europeans believe isolating and enforced quarantine (using electronic tracking) is against their rights. Fine. But don’t claim only authoritarian regimes have done it.

MarieFromStTropez · 03/11/2020 09:09

@turnitonagain You are absolutely right.

20mum · 03/11/2020 12:45

[quote Yellownotblue]@Goosefoot, I agree this is not easy or straightforward. But Asian people (don’t want to generalise, but true of many Asian countries) just seem to be so much more sensible about precautions.

I lived in Hong Kong until this summer, and in January, literally overnight, everyone started wearing masks everywhere, and mostly staying home. They didn’t need to be made mandatory (for political reasons, the government couldn’t do that - because they tried to make masks illegal during the protests 🙄) but everyone just wore them. And they were easy and cheap to buy too - after the initial few weeks when worldwide stock was low. I brought back a stock of thousands which I distributed to friends here, including a GP friend, who also advised me to bring back lots of antibiotics and other drugs, as the NHS stocks are running low.

Having gone through 2 waves in Hong Kong, I was completely terrified when we landed in London and saw people without masks everywhere. I spent the summer telling my London friends to beware the next wave, that it would be worse than the first. People here were very nonchalant - packed high streets, people standing next to each other, loads of shoppers in stores not wearing masks. Mumsnet is packed with threads full of people proud to be non compliant.

The tories have completely messed up their messaging, with Johnson constantly making a show of how much he abhors imposing restrictions, how he admires the Jaws’ mayor who keeps the beach open when there’s a man-eating shark around. All he has done is fanned the flames of a libertarian base who think only of their own immediate gratification.

This is not the right message, or policy. It lacks empathy and care and foresight. It is a pity that there are no strong female voices in the cabinet who would be listened to.

Even now, every press conference has a mandatory ’sweet hereafter’ section, where we’re told about the moonshot/world leading app / ramping up testing /vaccine about to be ready. This just dilutes the message. People only want to hear the positive bit, and forget the rest. They don’t get how grim things are.

For me, what just petrified me was when, back in March, Johnson came out and said ‘if you’ve got symptoms, stay home, don’t get tested, don’t seek medical help, don’t go to a hospital unless you can’t breathe.’ I get that this is because there were no tests, no beds, no ventilators and no PPE. But it is hard not to see this as a huge moral (and operational) failure.[/quote]
What a brilliant post. I would like to see Boris read it aloud on national t.v. And then slowly repeat the sentence about lack of meaningful women's input. Repeat it by the same number of times as the males outnumber females in his senior minesterial and advisory posts.

Joswis · 03/11/2020 13:22

@MrsGradyOldLady

A lot of users with numbers in their name defending China. A lot of new accounts too. Funny that...
Me neither. Are you implying we're bots? I'm sitting on my sofa drinking tea.
Goosefoot · 03/11/2020 13:23

@turnitonagain

I don’t have any numbers in my name. I live in Asia with many Chinese work colleagues and friends. I believe what they are telling me China has genuinely suppressed the virus. Not eradicated it, and they keep small outbreaks hush hush early on, but suppressed it.

The methods they used which are described as against human rights have been successful in Asian democracies such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, and also in Australia and NZ.

It’s clearly a cultural issue where Europeans believe isolating and enforced quarantine (using electronic tracking) is against their rights. Fine. But don’t claim only authoritarian regimes have done it.

Australia and NZ are not comparable to most European countries. Nor is where I live, where we've mostly suppressed it as well.

What they all have in common is fairly low population density (4.7/sq km for me, 15 for NZ, and 3.2 for Australia, compared to over 200 for the UK) being relatively far from centres of travel, and an ability to really restrict travel in and out of the country or region to a substantial degree.

Singapore and Taiwan have some advantages in that way, too, though maybe not to the same degree. But I would also point out that a country like Singapore, although not totalitarian as such, is far more authoritarian than and western nation. They have strict laws against many things and the punishments are not what you'd call light, and include corporal punishment or even hanging.

Joswis · 03/11/2020 13:25

@skeptile

China doesn't need a second wave in order to fulfil an agenda of total control of it's citizens via the establishment of a technocratic surveillance state. It's already there. But the West is playing catch-up. So he we are. As many waves as are needed.
Really? Let our people die! We don't need control of a deadly virus!

I know where I would rather be (if they would let me in) right now. Drinking a cocktail, in a Shanghai street bar, watching real life unfold around me. Instead, I am indoors drinking tea, sheltering from idiots who think they are too clued up to wear a mask.

turnitonagain · 03/11/2020 14:31

@Goosefoot did you forget South Korea? Japan?

Taiwan is an island, so is Britain. Taiwan has huge links to China as well.

Sorry you can’t continue to twist it that only dictatorships can cope with this or that they have special advantages that couldn’t have been replicated.

20mum · 03/11/2020 17:05

If some posters here believe only an insufferable authoritarian dictatorship would eliminate Covid19, they need to explain to themselves how the N.Z. prime minister recently got so soundly re elected, and maybe why she has the most diverse Cabinet in the world?

Today's Wombs Hour on Radio 4 had a strident demand that prostitutes must not be impeded in their work, or should get an unspecified but extravagant amount of compensation from taxpayers. Repeated and never questioned, an assumption was made that seeking alternative work is for lesser people, and that living on ordinary State Benefits, just the same as any other unemployed person would get, would also be beneath prostitutes.

The most astounding assertion, never questioned, and repeated throughout the item, is that despite the entire common herd having to manage on State Benefit income, this would be mysteriously impossible for a prostitute to attempt. Unemployed people from every other occupation must do it, and must seek other work, and must maintain any children they have on their allowable income from the taxpurse.

Something strange happens to the children of prostitutes, according to this programme. Unlike the children of everybody else, they instantly starve and become street homeless. Reference to these strangely 'starving' children were constantly made and never explained. I remember someone on this thread asserting aggressively that she wouldn't care about spreading Covid19, and if need be would carry on going from house to house, because the only alternative was being homeless with a starving child. Is this joining "men are women if they say they are" as a new not-to-be-challenged statement?

20mum · 03/11/2020 17:10

@Joswis you say you can't be a bot because you are sitting on a sofa drinking tea. I fear that will only confirm you are up to no good, as far as some suspicious people are concerned. After all, it might be China tea!

Joswis · 03/11/2020 17:18

Yorkshire actually! The only tea worth drinking 😁

mayflowerapplepie · 03/11/2020 20:32

Britain is an island too and could have chosen to restrict movement. The decision was made not to. You can argue as much as you want about how difficult and inconvenient it would have been but it would have worked. Australia has managed to shut states off from each other even so it is possible (and yes we have a LOT of movement between states normally)

mayflowerapplepie · 03/11/2020 20:33

Britain is an island too and could have chosen to restrict movement. The decision was made not to. You can argue as much as you want about how difficult and inconvenient it would have been but it would have worked. Australia has managed to shut states off from each other even so it is possible (and yes we have a LOT of movement between states normally)

wafflyversatile · 03/11/2020 22:39

I think some of the answers in this thread explain more why we got it so bad here rather than why China hasn’t got a second wave. Without a good dose of humble pie and with this amount of superiority and ignorance instead I doubt we’ll fare well. Add a gov that cannot track not trace

Yep. It can't possibly be that GREAT Britain's response was shit in comparison to China's. They must be lying.

And british people are rebels lol. The same british people who complain no other nationalities know how to queue.

BooseysMom · 04/11/2020 13:47

There is research behind carried out looking at the mutations of the virus that suggest that Europe is currently being affected by particular strains that might be more virulent

This is interesting and others have pointed this out too. I heard a virologist on the radio a few weeks back saying that unfortunately this virus will not mutate.

Popcornriver · 05/11/2020 09:50

Didn't they aim for a zero covid approach before opening up? While we went for a don't overwhelm the NHS and reduce the R rate? Maybe that's why. I'm sure their track and trace would have worked much better having far less cases to trace contacts as well. We're on over 20 thousand confirmed cases a day plus whatever isn't picked up

hopingforonlychild · 05/11/2020 10:01

Its a difference in mindset. My parents are Singaporean and even though we are 8 timezones apart, they keep reminding me to wear a mask when I go out in London. Something like 90% of Singaporeans wear a mask when they go out (in the street, not just indoors) as it is law. I would be interested in how many mums in UK incessantly and constantly remind their children to wear masks.

Taiwan, HK , China, Singapore had experience with SARS and therefore know what to do. I remember back in Feb when there were 10 cases of Covid in the UK, I said that the economy would be wrecked and people would die if we didnt take this seriously, just like how it happened in Singapore when I was 11. Everyone just laughed at me and said that the reason that happened was cos singapore was so small with connections to china. I feel like there is a certain arrogance in UK that we know best and therefore we would not benefit from learning from other countries. Hence things were allowed to spiral out of control.

annabel85 · 05/11/2020 10:03

People actually take it seriously and there isn't the same rebelliousness that's innate in cultures like ours.

annabel85 · 05/11/2020 10:06

The other factor is people don't fear the law in this country and there's been extremely low rate of enforcement. Even in countries like Italy and Spain they don't piss about with the police over there and know about it if they do.

In other cultures like much of Asia and the far east, you wouldn't dare.

hopingforonlychild · 05/11/2020 10:11

@annabel85 also humans are social creatures and we tend to copy what our peer group does. If everyone around you is following regulations, you would too. the problem with the UK is that too many people refuse to wear masks and have illicit gatherings so that somehow normalizes risky behavior.

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