Are we reaching natural peak cases?

[Racoonworld]

The estimates are for up to 100,000 cases a day. This was also the estimate for March too. We have measured in place but schools and universities are open, people mixing, lots ignoring the rules. Yet cases seem to have stalled the last week, with only a small rise. Are we nearing the natural amount of cases?

No I think we are going to have a bigger wave of infection cases but fewer deaths than last time.

winter hasn't hit yet.

or christmas

Winter is here in the sense that people are no longer socializing outdoors, at least where I am in the north.
However, students did mix for a while but then the universities clamped down and it could be that that slowed the spread on campuses. An awful lot of students have spent the last few weeks stuck in their rooms or flats.

I don't think so. In fact I would put good money on it, but also happy to be proved wrong.

Yes,I think you're right. There was a doctor on ITV news just now saying we're in the peak right now

No. Arrangements being made for regional surges and winter pressures. One London Trust has opened an additional 120 beds. Nightingale staffing being considered.
A national stockpile of ventilators (but concerns about staff levels for these).
It’s likely to get significantly worse, not least because people are becoming complacent.

I really hope so.

I have no wish to be a doom monger, but I think winter is going to be terrible if we can't get a handle on this now.

I think it’s unlikely looking at the rest of Europe no real reason to think we would level off when they haven’t when we are not doing anything amazingly different.

No.

Not according to the predictions on worldometres. It could get a lot worse. Mind you I have no idea how they worked these predictions out

No

here its based on the increases in number of cases in the REACT study where random people are chosen & do tests - one of the professors was on BBC & they were concerned that the proportional increase in the number of so far asymptomatic people who did the test who are coming back positive - nb they may well be symptomatic within a week - it is seriously scary

@Racoonworld

The estimates are for up to 100,000 cases a day. This was also the estimate for March too. We have measured in place but schools and universities are open, people mixing, lots ignoring the rules. Yet cases seem to have stalled the last week, with only a small rise. Are we nearing the natural amount of cases?

With 90% of the population still susceptible to a virus that spreads exponentially there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to imagine we are anywhere near a peak in cases.

The testing figures have stalled because test and trace is inadequate.

The close to 100,000 cases a day figure you mention is a huge rise from last week. It’s from a massive she reliable research project.

Cases aren’t plateauing, sadly.

Schools have been on half term last week or this week, so that there's a brief break in transmission. That may have slowed things down slightly, but from next week it's all back on.

This is wishful thinking, almost the entire population hasn't caught it yet.

I honestly don't understand why the government is letting this happen again, but clearly the UK does not have things under control at all.

The novelty of freshers' has worn off now so it's not rocketing around university halls like it was. news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-falling-rates-in-university-areas-could-be-hiding-a-wider-outbreak-in-cities-analysis-shows-12112580

I think it is more likely that the measures that have been put in place are working.

The number of new cases is not increasing like it was and we may have reached a peak with the current restrictions and circumstances.

However as the colder weather kicks in it could help the virus spread and we might need to tighten up a bit more.

Most people haven’t had it yet, so there is still a long way to go unfortunately.

Why would a virus have a natural peak? It doesn't run out after a certain number of infections per day

Lockdown curtailed infections nothingelse,there's no limit.

There is no 'natural peak' . Infections and maths don't work like that- well not until a majority percentage of people have the virus or have immunity, and given that we are seeing people get infected twice that's not going to happen.

You are wishful thinking OP. Sadly, wanting something to be true doesn't make it so.

The only thing to make a peak occur would be people's behaviour changing in a way that reduces infections. That's not 'natural' it's man made.

But man has other ideas, because man is selfish.

@Racoonworld

The estimates are for up to 100,000 cases a day. This was also the estimate for March too. We have measured in place but schools and universities are open, people mixing, lots ignoring the rules. Yet cases seem to have stalled the last week, with only a small rise. Are we nearing the natural amount of cases?

No.

Most people haven't had it yet
As said by previous posters, this is moot

@satnighttakeaway

Why would a virus have a natural peak? It doesn't run out after a certain number of infections per day

Lockdown curtailed infections nothingelse,there's no limit.

This is incorrect. Firstly infections slowed down significantly the week before lockdown, the week when we were 'urged' to start practicing social distancing. That's why peak deaths were a few days earlier than predicted. Secondly, epidemics caused by viruses do have their own natural pattern, so they would eventually peak even if we did nothing. But humans will never do nothing. OP there is some evidence that we might be coming into a peak right now. Probably a bit too early to say though. We might have to tighten up restrictions a bit more in England (Wales and Scotland have already done so).

But there’s a theory which hasn’t been disproved that the early peak in the spring was caused by people wfh and distancing before they were officially told to by the government. As far as I can see the jury is still out on that.